A friend asked a question:
When it comes to dividends, it is generally said that index**, is there no active manager who is good at dividends?
It's a good question, today follow this line of thought to find the ** manager who is "good at dividends".
This wave of dividends** started after the Chinese New Year in 2021, so let's take a look at the performance of the dividend index after that.
CSI dividends, up 1874%；
The dividend index (Shanghai Composite Dividend) rose by 2376%；
The dividend was low 100, up 2611%；
The dividend was low and volatile, up 2938%。
Take this as a benchmark and take a look at the performance of the initiative.
A manager chooses a representativeAfter the Spring Festival in 2021, the active ** with an income of more than 20% is here:
PS: The date of appointment of the manager is required to be before the Spring Festival in 2021).
A bit of a surprise, only 24** were selected.
If it is a little more stringent, it is required to outperform the CSI Dividend Total Return Index, that is, the return is more than 3759%, that's 7 left.
So understand why dividends are sought after, in the past 3 years, the ** manager who outperformed the bonus index has 2 hands.
Let's take a look at the performance of the Deep Value Manager individuallyOnly Bao Wuwu outperformed the CSI Dividend Total Return Index. After the Spring Festival in 2021, Invesco Great Wall Energy Infrastructure rose by 3938%, outperforming the CSI Dividend Total Return Index by 3759% increase.
Xu Yan, Yang Xinxin, Jiang Cheng, Guan's ** rose by 20%+, only outperforming the CSI Dividend Index.
Lan Xiaokang, Cao Mingchang, Yuan Wei, and Wu Xuan, although they have also performed well in the past few years and have achieved great growth in scale, they have not outperformed the CSI Dividend Index.
Among the top managers, who is closer to the CSI Dividend Index?
Compare the next year's earnings
2024 will be miserable, because coal is dominant, and several value-oriented ** managers have not outperformed the dividend index.
From 2021 to 2023, Xu Yan and Yang Xinxin will outperform the dividend index for 3 consecutive years, and Jiang Cheng and Bao Wuke will outperform the dividend index for 2 consecutive years.
Let's take a look at the excess returns of several ** managers relative to CSI dividends
Bao is relatively stable, and the excess return has been steadily increasing, and there is no obvious takeback.
Xu Yan and Yang Xinxin are relatively close, and before August 2023, the excess return increased steadily, and then continued to take back.
Jiang Cheng deviated greatly, and the excess returns accumulated rapidly from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022, and then stagnated and took back.
In general, if you look at the returns of the past few years, Bao Wuke's performance is closer to the dividend index, and he has also run out of obvious and stable excess returns.
The reason can be found from the position, several people are biased towards value, and after the Spring Festival in 2021, they have also outperformed the excess return relative to the dividend index. But after August last year, ** generally fell, only coal contrarian **, the scissors difference between dividends and value became wider and wider, and several people underperformed the dividend index.
However, Bao Wuke was lucky, in the first half of last year, with the help of the AI boom, he took profits from 2 media stocks at a high level.
In the second half of the year, it gradually increased its position in coal, and in the fourth quarter, there were already 4 coal stocks in the top ten heavy stocks, and other heavy stocks also performed well this year, so they did not give back excess returns.
Finally, some people may wonder:Why are there so many value** managers, and why can't they outperform the dividend index?
This is mainly because of ".Value ≠ Dividends
If you look at the composition of the industry, you can understand that the value index, mainly finance and utilities, accounts for half of the weight.
Dividend indexes, where dividends are the number one priority, have more coal stocks.
And it's a coincidenceSince the Spring Festival in 2021, coal has stood out, rising by 14311%。The majority of the value, banks and non-bank finance, respectively, fell. 1%。
This is why in the past few years, those who have won coal have won the world, the Yellow Sea of heavy coal has continued to be excellent, and a number of value managers have risen and fallen with the ups and downs.
The focus of the market has gradually changed from "value-oriented managers" to "dividend index", and in the final analysis, it is still under the leadership of coal that dividends outperform value.
However, if you extend the time for a long time, the differentiation between dividends and value is actually not so serious, and most of the time it rises and falls, so there is no need to worry about whether the value-oriented ** manager can outperform the dividend index in the short term
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.