It seems that the market is rushing to rush, and the recent market has not waited for the wind to come, and has begun to rush to trade the difference between supply and demandIt may be that last year's Chinese New Year was later than the market, and the market was about half a month earlier than expected。First of all, the black of the high **, to falsify the weakness of the peak season, but after the market trades in advance, the follow-up will stop falling after the peak season really comes? and then to lithium carbonate to trade environmental protection + demand expansion, the varieties that were written to a low level before last year are worth paying attention to in 24 years, and now pigs are also beginning to move ......
The macro is not allowed to say, this link is omitted so as not to be unable to send it, and the views and actions are summed up
There will inevitably be more black swan events this year than last year, so much so that when I chatted with my friends at the beginning of the year, I mentioned that I should shorten the trading cycle as much as possible, and take profit if I have enough profitsDon't be obsessed with too many expectations.
Agricultural products
Let's talk about the point of view first: not too bearish, the industry is bearish, and the macro is more。It is recommended that you stand in the latter, and when the fundamentals contradict the technical graphics, you still have to believe in the latter, and we may not see the scene that happened when we do basic research. It must be smart money first, and then, with the fundamental expectations to change, and finally reflect to the real fundamentals, which is a little different from the previous analysis ideas:After large-scale financial intervention in recent years, most of them are dogs running away with people, so we see a large basis for some breeds, and this "dog" is full of vitality and often leads people astray, and the industry is aware of it, and only then does the resonance occur smoothly up or down.
Knowledgeable friends should know the meaning of the above wordsBased on this, the contemptible people are cautiously optimistic about double mealHalf of the industry players are still looking at soybean meal in a bearish way, while some macro speculative funds have begun to lay out agricultural products in advance. It can be seen from the position of the meal in the past few days that the funds are "accumulating" chips, when the position reaches a certain "limit", a little bit will inevitably explode in a certain direction, everyone is patiently waiting for the appearance of the fuse! Of course, there is no big problem with the low allocation of light positions.
As for the month, M5-9 is recommended to be reversed, and M9-1 is recommended to be positive; At present, the oil is not very clear, there are too many factors to interfere, but the performance is not bad, there is no positive and negative set of the month, and the strategy of unilateral light position at this stage will be clearer.
Also talking about cornstarch,Directly above, the basic driver is to favor corn and negative starchAt present, we see that corn is going to the warehouse, starch enterprises are starting to increase, and starch is accumulating....So the logic of more corn empty starch will go on for a while. In addition, corn needs to pay attention to the 2500 pressure level above, and the basis 05 contract with minus 120 is rising hard, and it may relay in the future, so unilateral corn ** may not give high expectations.
glass and soda ash
Soda ash, in mid to late March, if you give a relatively low ** can be concerned, if it is still hovering in 1800-1900 there is no need to participate,After all, those who can survive on soda ash are kings, with how its soda ash "story" and "accident" are written, it is estimated that the funds are unlikely to spend exponentially on this position this year, in other words, soda ash may not reproduce last year's "heroic"! The small partners of the market are bearish but it is not yet time to take out the SA alone, and wait for the big commodities to stabilize, and then evaluate the upward space, and the downward can not use a simple market supply and demand balance to anchor the soda ash **,After all, it is a very variety, and monopoly pricing is the pricing of alkali plants, and everyone who understands it.
The glass contradiction can be expected to be faked every time the bears are slapped in the faceLet's talk about the point of view first: in the first half of the year, we are optimistic about the demand for glass, the demand will not fall off the cliff so quickly, the ceiling of supply has been seen, and the increase in supply of transactions cannot be said。Whether the consumer side of glass can support the high supply of the whole year this year, the contemptible view is that the contradiction will not be very prominent in the first half of the year, and it may be enough in the second half of the year, so whyThis is the reason why I would recommend everyone to insist on doing FG5-9 positive sets.
As shown in the figure below, the ending inventory in the main producing areas is increasing, but the social inventory is decreasing, which proves that the current surface demand for glass is mainly the spot merchant at the point price, and the apparent consumption of glass is not bad compared with last year. In addition, we note that this year's glass inventory accumulation of the commanding heights may be lower than last year, the pressure and panic to the warehouse may be lower than last year, when the price of natural gas has not been reduced, glass to hit the cost line of petroleum coke is still a little difficult, despite this, Changli, Yujing ex-factory prices have begun to gradually decrease, testing the market's reactionMost of the ** merchants give the hoarding of spot ** around 1600, and at this stage, the focus of glass and soda ash can be placed on the FG5-9 positive set.
Huize Investment.
Black
The overall contradiction is not prominent, it is not appropriate to continue to chase the empty thread, and the macro continues to tell the story at the time of falsification. Infrastructure, real estate is weak, has been reflected to the disk, the extent of the reaction to the price in? Everyone has different views, and then assess the demand after the two sessions on March 15, when there are export profits at 3850, and the export is blocked at 4100, the future may be black is a narrow range.
For nowYou can pay attention to the main set of i5-9 during the ore month, the unilateral repair of the large basis has not yet arrived, and the effect of slowly building a positive set may be good, and the target of the ore 5-9 price spread is about 90 for the time being, and it may exceed 100. Eliminating backward production capacity, coking coal has made a good "start", will it be extended to the steel industry in the future? The possibility is still to have a tone of voice for the market; At the same time, the high mine price will speed up the resumption of high-cost mines, and the recent increase in Ukraine's ore has also come in, standing at the current time node to predict: the future far moon ore may not replicate last year's **, of course, I am often slapped in the face.
I wish you a long performance, welcome to like.