Authors: Xun Yugen, Liang Zhonghua (Xun Yugen is a director of the China Chief Economist Forum, and the chief economist of Haitong).
In February 2024, the Political Bureau of ** held a meeting to discuss the draft of the "** Work Report" to be submitted to the second session of the 14th National People's Congress for deliberation. The meeting pointed out that "in the past year, in the face of an extremely complex international environment and arduous tasks of reform, development and stability", "".Withstand external pressures and overcome internal difficultiesThe economy has rebounded, and people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed"The main goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year have been successfully completed, high-quality development has been steadily promoted, and solid steps have been taken to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way". He affirmed the achievements made in economic development since last year.
On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People's Congress was held in Beijing. Our understanding of the main content is as follows:
The GDP growth target for 2024 is about 5%, and the CPI growth target is about 3%, which will remain unchanged from 2023. It is worth noting that 2023 is based on the growth target set from a low base in 2022, which also means that this year's growth target is more high-quality. In terms of policy tone, it emphasizes "insisting on seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking". Yes"More policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, prudently introducing contractionary and repressive measures, and cleaning up and abolishing policies and regulations that are contrary to high-quality development." We believe that the proactive macro policy will continue this year, but the scale and intensity will be "moderate".
In terms of fiscal policy, it emphasizes "moderate strengthening, quality and efficiency". This year's fiscal deficit rate is planned to be arranged at 3 percent, and the budget deficit scale is 4 percent06 trillion yuan, and it is planned to arrange 3 new local special bonds9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan over last year. Starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year. We believe that this year's fiscal policy will moderately focus on stabilizing growth, and the pace may be mainly concentrated.
Second and third quarters. Changes in the scale of fiscal affairs in the broad sense should be continuously tracked. In terms of monetary policy, it emphasizes "flexibility, moderation, precision and effectiveness" and "maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity". In our view, monetary policy is expected to be further prudently accommodative in 2024, and there is still room for policy rate adjustment.
In terms of expanding domestic demand, on the one hand, it will promote the steady growth of consumption. from"Increase revenues, optimize supply, and reduce restrictive measures".and other comprehensive policies. Cultivate and expand new types of consumption, and stabilize and expand traditional consumption. On the other hand, we will actively expand effective investment. Focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation, emission reduction and carbon reduction. In addition, the restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector will be fully lifted.
In terms of structural policies, it reflects the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". First, the real estate policy should be "stable". The report highlights the optimization of real estate policies"Accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development" and "increase the construction and supply of affordable housing".。We believe that the policy in the real estate sector focuses on supporting the bottom, rather than strongly stimulating demand. At the same time, risk mitigation is an important task this year, "treating both the symptoms and the root causes to resolve the risks of real estate, local debt, small and medium-sized financial institutions, etc." Second, the industrial policy should be "advanced". In terms of industrial policy,".We will vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces”。Formulate policies to support the high-quality development of the digital economy. Actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries. In addition, it is worth paying attention to the "launch of the second round of land contract expiration and the extension of the province-wide pilot project for another 30 years".
In terms of capital markets, the report points out the need to "enhance the internal stability of capital markets". We believe that this requires vigorously improving the quality and investment value of listed companies, and increasing the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market. On the one hand, improving the quality of listed companies is an inherent requirement for the steady development of the capital market, and listed companies should be supported to inject high-quality assets, market-oriented mergers and acquisitions, stimulate business vitality, and deepen the delisting mechanism to accelerate the survival of the fittest; And guide listed companies to return investors through repurchase and cancellation, increase dividends and other ways to enhance investment value. On the other hand, for a long time, the A** field has faced the problem of a low proportion of institutional investors, and it is necessary to speed up the pension in the future.
The second and third pillars will speed up the market entry, increase the proportion of equity investment, and promote the long-term and stable development of the capital market.
Risk Warning:The policy is not as good as expected.