A few years ago, astronomers ruled out the possibility that a potentially dangerous asteroid called Apophis redirected and hit Earth as it passed by.
It was a huge relief. But we're not completely out of the woods. Thanks to the double asteroid redirection test, we have seen that hitting an asteroid with something can change its orbit.
In interstellar space, there are many space rocks floating there. What if one of them collided with Apophis? What if it knocks Apophis off his current route? What if the new trajectory is a collision route with the Earth?
Well, you can relax. Astronomer Paul Wiegert at Western University and Ben Hyatt of the University of Waterloo in Canada have looked at the orbits of more than 1.3 million known asteroids in the inner solar system and come to a reassuring conclusion: none of the asteroids will collide with Apophis in the next few years.
"Considering how close Apophis will be to Earth, deviating from its current orbit could bring Apophis closer to hitting us," Hyatt said. ”。
The assumption that another asteroid colliding with Apophis could cause this deflection prompted us to study the scenario, however unlikely. ”
Apophis was discovered in 2004 and was immediately assessed as a potential threat. Early ** indicates that it has 2There is a 7% chance of crashing into Earth, which is very worrying.
This possibility was soon ruled out, but Apophis' orbit allowed it to fly over Earth every eight years. It wasn't until astronomers made new precise measurements of the asteroid's position during its flyby in 2021 that the possibility of the foreseeable future was ruled out.
That's good news. However, the threat of asteroid impact is quite worrisome. Unless we have a lot of warning beforehand, there's little we can do about it. Because Apophis was once the biggest threat in this direction, astronomers were keen to rule out all possibilities.
So, Wiegert and Hyatt started the simulation. According to current data, there is no risk of collision. Apophis could pass another asteroid called Auston within 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) in December 2026; They will not be hit, but any unseen fragments marked with the Apractor, if present, have the potential to hit Apophis.
But based on the simulation results, this risk is negligible.
"We used detailed computer simulations of the solar system to calculate the paths of all known asteroids and assess the likelihood of such an unlikely event," Wiegert said. ”。Fortunately, such collisions are not expected. ”
So all we have to worry about now is an unknown asteroid.