Yesterday's black main contract range**: iron ore rebounded at a low level, and coke still did not stop falling; The fluctuation of the hot coil is falling, and the thread is repeatedly tested. In terms of spot, the national market weakened at the opening, and the terminal mostly held the "buy up, not buy down" mentality to enter cautiously, superimposed on the current demand repair slowly, inventory pressure is difficult to alleviate, the willingness to ship is strong, and the intraday preferential price reduction has contributed to the increase in trading, and the overall trading performance is tepid.
The country's economic growth target of about 5% this year is a goal that can be achieved with a hard jump.
Zheng Shajie, director of the national government, said at the press conference that this year's expected target of about 5% for China's economic growth is scientifically demonstrated, in line with the annual requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and basically matches the potential of economic growth, which is a goal that can be achieved with a jump. At present, the national policy began to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which are specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of important areas, stabilize the economic recovery, and use more funds to alleviate local debts, and use state-owned enterprises and central enterprises to drive the investment confidence of private enterprises, increase investment, drive steel demand, and benefit the steel trend.
The interest rate has entered the "3" range, and consumer loan products have "rolled up".
Recently, a number of banks have recently competed to launch consumer loan products with low interest rates and high amounts. Many banks have adjusted the lower limit of the interest rate of personal credit consumer loans to the "3" range, and some banks have adopted **, issued coupons and other means, so that the loan interest rate has further dropped to below 3%.
Analysts say
According to the data of the China Iron and Steel Association, in late February, the daily output of crude steel of iron and steel enterprises was 2.13 million tons, an increase of 138%, down 406%。After the holiday, the projects gradually restarted, promoting the recovery of steel demand, and the speed of steel mills to the warehouse was accelerated. In late February, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was about 18.02 million tons, a decrease of 95 from the previous month90,000 tons, down 505%, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared with last year.
At present, the performance of real estate is still weak, infrastructure has not yet made significant efforts, and the data on new construction and resumption of work are poor. According to the data of the Centennial Construction Network, the resumption rate of 10,094 construction sites across the country this week was 629%, a year-on-year decrease of 136 percentage points. From the perspective of the industry, after entering March, although the terminal demand has recovered one after another, the overall performance is relatively repeated and has no persistence. In terms of raw material costs, bifocal spot continued to decline, the inventory of imported iron ore ports continued to increase, iron ore increased, and the weak adjustment dragged down the finished products. According to the latest research on the big data of Primrose Iron and Steel, the average cost of molten iron in Tangshan this week was 2,809 yuan tons, and the average cost of billet was 3,637 yuan including tax, compared with the current 3,480 yuan of billet ex-factory, the average gross profit of steel mills was -157 yuan tons.
On the macro front, the work report announced China's economic growth target of 5% in 2024, which is lower than 5% in 20232%；The deficit ratio is proposed to be arranged at 3%, which is lower than 3 in 20238%, the size of the deficit is 406 trillion yuan, an increase of 180 billion yuan over the budget at the beginning of the previous year; It is proposed to arrange local ** special bonds 39 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan over the previous year; Starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which will be specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and will first issue 1 trillion yuan this year. Although special bonds with a large base will be arranged to stabilize economic development, economic growth in 2024 will be slower than in 2023, and the deficit rate will be lower than expected, and the comprehensive policy stimulus will be limited. Therefore, the determinants of the product have shifted from macro policy expectations to the verification of actual fundamental needs.