Someone has calculated itNow 1400-1500 yuan in cash, equivalent to 100 yuan in 2000 purchasing power, is actually the financial "inflation", there are many reasons for inflation, but the most critical reason is the over-issuance of currency. This is easier to understand, every year the printing of money is increased by 10%, commodities are still those commodities, but the total amount of money has increased, which means that commodities will also be in a considerable proportion.
The question now is, will inflationary pressures diminish as economic growth slows? This is not the case, a simple logic is that when the pressure on economic development is increasing, it can only be restarted, and even pay more attention to monetary instruments, which is the case in developed countries such as the United States, the European Union and Japan, and we are naturally no exception, and we are doing the same at presentJudging from the latest situation, a new round of inflation is coming? There are three aspects that can be corroborated
First, currency**.
According to the data, the amount of money at the end of 2013 was about 110 trillion, and at the end of January 2024, the amount of M2 was 2976 trillion, 10 years, the latter is 2 of the former7 times, infinitely close to 300 trillion. You must know that with the economic slowdown, the M2 growth rate has been reduced to an annual growth rate of more than 8.0% since 2016, but due to the well-known epidemic reasons, the growth rate of M2 has returned to double-digit growth since 2020. It can be said thatThe basis for the upward movement of prices brought about by the over-issuance of money is fully in place, but it is only a matter of time.
Second, the central bank has launched the conversion of residents' savings into bonds。There are so many monetary increases, but the facts are also in front of us, housing prices have not risen, ** have not risen, and even the prices of other commodities have not risen, and the price changes for many months in 2023 are actually negative, and the annual growth is only 02%。Money gone? It is not difficult to find out the reasons for thisDue to the inactivity of the economy, a large amount of funds distributed by banks cannot be loaned, and ordinary people are worried about the uncertainty of the future, so they have deposited their money in banks.
If money cannot flow, it will inevitably be detrimental to economic development。Therefore, the central bank issued new regulations on the "Measures for the Administration of Counter Business in the National Interbank Bond Market" on February 29Residents can invest in the bond market over the counter at banks, allowing everyone to efficiently convert their savings into bond investmentThe purpose is to increase the property income of residents. What does it mean?
The central bank explained this, saying that the scale of the ** bonds held by our residents is too small, and there is still a big gap with the developed bond market. How big is the gap? As of the end of 2023, China's bond balance is 158 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits are 289 trillion yuan. In the words of the industry, calling you to consume or not, let you spend or not, now let you lend money to various large debt entities (including treasury bonds, corporate bonds, enterprise bonds, urban investment bonds, etc.), but also increase your incomeYou're always willing, aren't you? Some people have called for not buying bonds, but for ordinary people, there is no reliable investment channel, and the interest rate on deposits in the bank is low.
The results speak for themselvesThe money that was originally lying in the bank has been lent out and invested by various debtors one after another, and the money that has been over-issued in the past few years has been truly released.
Third, the new version of the 4 trillion model may only be the beginning
It is estimated that many people have seen the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in" document adopted by the National Standing Committee on March 1, deploying and researching the launch of large-scale consumer goods "trade-in" and equipment renewal. How does the industry understand it? The Political Affairs Hall gave a brief interpretation of the title of "The National Standing Committee Clarifies the Troika of 2024".
1.Equipment renewal, talking about investment; Trade-in is about consumption; Logistics costs are talking about foreign trade. Isn't this the troika of economic development? 2.How does the troika run? The meeting also outlined: investment, made it clear that it is state-owned procurement. The standard of procurement has changed from the past to energy consumption, emissions, and technology, which also means that the "investment profit" in 2024 will become relatively rich. Consumption, focusing on automobiles, home appliances in the field, will usher in a new version of the "four trillion" model, consumption patterns are expected to change little, but the main body of investment from the local ** to *** and ** enterprises; Let's not talk about exports. Compared with the old version of the 4 trillion yuan of gravity is "macro control", the east and west try to be as flat as possible, and the new version of 4 trillion yuan is likely to give priority to the big cities along the eastern coast and the Yangtze River.To put it bluntly, economic development in 2024 will be a "troika", those who have done procurement know that the procurement of central state-owned enterprises is not a spell, it is generally higher than the outside, and now they will lead the procurement, will it bring about an increase in procurement costs and commodity prices? You can make up for it。The new version of the four trillion model, does not mean that only four trillion yuan is directly invested, of course, according to the current economic base, the actual scale should be much larger than this scale to drive economic growth, so the word "large-scale" is used, it will only be much more. Where does the money come from? It is estimated that most of them are the first and second corroborations mentioned above, and they will not be expanded
In addition, according to the latest data from the central bank, the CPI (price index) in January 2024 was month-on-month for two consecutive months**Is this a signal that prices are starting up? I don't dare to assert it, let's wait and see, but if it will come sooner or later, it is still the same sentence, for us ordinary people, it is almost impossible to fight inflation head-on. According to the experience and lessons of previous inflation, we can only adapt to the situation, try to adapt to inflation, go in the same direction, and be able to synchronize in place is the greatest luck, and grasp the "4 things" or be able to deal with it calmly.
The first is a good body. If you ask, what is it that a person is worried about spending the most money? I believe that many people's answer is "to see a doctor", the reason is very simple, as long as the house and car are healthy, since they have been bought, they will definitely be able to repay the loan. But it's different if you want to see a doctor if you're not in good health, especially if you're seriously ill, the cost is high, and you haven't earned a lot of income during the period. Isn't there a saying that taking care of your body is actually making money, and when the currency depreciates, the corresponding expenses will only be more, so taking care of your body is the first place.
The second is a stable job. There is a study done by economists, and many people say that you can't make a fortune on wages, but do you know what can really keep dancing with inflation? In fact, it is the salary of normal work. Because the average wage in each city is rising every year, it is calculated based on the average and median wages of all walks of life, and this wage is also based on the price and inflation level. So, as long as you have a stable job, you can actually keep pace with inflation. Of course, if your job is still in a high-income industry, that's not to mention.
The third and fourth are ** and real estate. I won't explain much, it's been the case since ancient times, because all currencies are pegged to, that's all, and money grows, and that's it. Under the inflation trend, it is right to hold **. In 2008, after a large release of 4 trillion yuan, it doubled from 177 yuan to 354 yuan in 2012. We now have a two-fold increase in currency **m2 compared with 2012, but the price of gold is only 500 yuan, an increase of 0.Less than 5 times. Therefore, with the release of funds, the trend of gold prices is also very obvious.
Finally, let's talk about property. To be honest, everyone is still quite entangled in the current market, the reason is nothing more than that the job and income are not sure, and the market has been adjusting, and the second-hand housing prices and new houses are deeply adjusted. However, you must know that from the recent property market policy, it has reached the bottom line of national tolerance, and the comprehensive sacrifice of controlling the land, the three major projects, and the adjustment of mortgage interest rates to the lowest in history have been "bottom of the box", and the qualifications for the purchase of 3 suites in some coastal cities have also been liberalized, and the meaning of boosting the market with investors is strong.
China's property market has always been a policy market, and there is reason to believe that since 2021, it has been able to rely on the "three red lines" to curb the heat of the property market, and now it will be achieved through the full reopening of the market at both ends of supply and demand, which means that the most difficult time for the property market has passed. Under the effect of many policies, after the holiday, many key cities reported a sharp increase in the number of houses, and the news of the reappearance of "land kings" in hot cities such as Hefei, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, which should be a trend of prophetic people. Because they know that real estate, as a bulk product, has always been a weapon against inflation, and the state encourages and supports you to buy it or not, so do you buy it when it is time to control it? Take advantage of the trend and listen to the country, and most of them are doing well.