The purchasing power of primary school students should not be underestimated.
Cards
Ultraman cards are becoming a new type of "gold hole".
In the eyes of most adults, it is just a poker-sized card, with an image of Ultraman or a monster on the front and the corresponding attack value, defense value, special move, card number, level, etc., and a detailed description of the character on the back.
But for the majority of elementary school students, this is the key to open the door of friendship, the code to the mysterious world.
Cards like this can be easily purchased at street shops around the school. A whole box of 36 packs of cards is opened and sold, and each small pack can open 8 cards, and the lowest price is only 1 yuan.
Looks cheap, right? But it may be hard for you to imagine that such seemingly ordinary cards have emptied the wallets of many elementary school students.
In October 2021, an elementary school student stole thousands of dollars from his home and bought hundreds of Ultraman cards, and his parents found out and accused the shopkeeper of inducing their children to spend.
This is not an isolated case. In Henan, a 10-year-old boy spent 9,800 yuan on Ultraman cards in 10 days. This was originally prepared by parents for the elderly for the New Year, and before that, the boy was very frugal, "before he spent more than 100 yuan a year on New Year's money."
In Wuhan, a couple of parents took their children to the police station to report that their son had been robbed of more than 1,000 yuan. Later, according to the police investigation, it turned out that the little boy stole his mother's 1,200 yuan in order to buy Ultraman rare cards. The child was afraid of being scolded and lied about being robbed.
What caused a sensation even more occurred in August 2022, in a card game *** in Chaoyang District, Beijing, Fan, who was called "Card King" by customers in the store, told **——
Since my son 'entered the pit' Ultraman Card, I have spent nearly 2 million yuan on drawing cards one after another, but I haven't collected them yet. ”
In the card circle, the total cost of about 10,000 yuan is the general enthusiast, more than 100,000 yuan is regarded as an expert, when the total cost of millions of yuan, in the circle is called "card king".
2 million yuan, which can be bought in fourth-tier towns4 houses, you can buy 5,000 bicycles, you can buy 1 million lollipops, but "you can't collect them all."Ultraman Cardcards
After the incident was reported, the brand Zhejiang Card Game responded that "theoretically there is no such parent", but the public's doubts and curiosity have not dissipated: what is the magic of this small card?
In this regard, the "True Story Research Laboratory" has analyzed the doorway
1. Ultraman, as a classic IP for decades, has a strong recognition and affection among teenagers;
2. The card integrates collectible, social, and game functions, which is attractive to teenagers;
3. The card adopts the blind box style of "card drawing", which is easy to be addicted to the pursuit of teenagers who want to buy cards with high scarcity.
The author understands that Ultraman cards have more than 20 levels, ranging from R, SR, XR, and SP. The higher the level, the higher the rarity, the less likely it is to be opened. In order to collect cards as soon as possible, many child players can only fall into the cycle of "buying cards, opening cards, and buying cards again".
Before I knew it, the child's wallet was been"Hollowed out".
Profiteering
The enthusiasm of elementary school students has given birth to an increasingly large industry.
According to the data, the market size of China's trading card industry has increased from 700 million yuan in 2017 to 12.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 784%。According to **, the total merchandise volume of the track will reach 31 billion yuan in 2027.
In the midst of this,Card gamesUndoubtedly one of the most eye-catching existences. On January 26, Kayou*** submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, officially launching an impact on the IPO, with Morgan Stanley, CICC and JPMorgan Chase as joint sponsors.
*According to the report, before the IPO, Sequoia and Tencent each held % of their shares, of which Sequoia valued the card game at the level of US$1 billion (about 7 billion yuan).
Being favored by large institutions, card games have their own advantages.
According to the prospectus, in 2021, 2022 and the first nine months of 2023, the revenue of card games will be 229.8 billion yuan, 413.1 billion yuan, 195.2 billion yuan, adjusted net profit of 79.5 billion yuan, 162 billion yuan, 57.8 billion yuan.
From a business point of view,Trading cards are the core product of card games. From 2021 to 2022 and in the first nine months of 2023, trading cards contributed 217 billion yuan, 393 billion and 167.5 billion yuan, accounting for the proportion of total revenue in the current period. 1% and 858%。
On the other hand, the cost of card games is not high. According to the prospectus, the largest expenses are material costs and royalties, which account for about 20% and 6% of total revenue, respectively.
Because of this, itsThe gross profit margins of trading cards are:It is increasing year by year. It can be said that this is a very profitable business.
Behind this is the strong market position of card games. According to the prospectus, in terms of total merchandise trading volume in 2022, card games ranked second in the pan-entertainment toy industry, with a market share of 131%；Ranked first in China's trading card industry, with a market share of 71%.
As of the end of September 2023, there are 44 IPs in the IP matrix (licensed and original) established by Card Game, including Ultraman, Ye Luoli, Card Game Three Kingdoms, Douluo Continent, Egg Boy Party, Naruto, Detective Conan, Harry Potter, etc.
It's hard to imagine that a small, cheap card can sell in a yearMore than 4 billion yuan. According to data from the Ministry of Education, in 2022, the number of primary school students in the country will be 10.7 billion people. It is this huge crowd that provides the confidence for card games.
Worried
In addition to the strong profitability, card games also face some concerns and doubts.
The first is the dealer. According to the prospectus, the sales channels of card games are divided into dealer channels, direct sales channels and retail channels. Among them, the core main force is the dealer channel. During the reporting period, the revenue from the dealer channel was 222.5 billion yuan, 382.7 billion and 158.5 billion yuan, accounting for the total revenue of the same period. 7% and 812%。
Although card games are gradually increasing their revenue from outside the dealer channel, in the short term, card games still cannot escape their dependence on dealers.
The second is the sustainability of performance. According to the prospectus, in 2021 and 2022, the card game sold 127.1 billion packs, 228.6 billion trading cards, but only 10. were sold in the first nine months of 20234 billion packages, down 49 percent year-on-year44%, almost halved. Reflected in revenue, in the first nine months of 2023, the operating income of card games will be 195.2 billion yuan, down 46 percent year-on-year6%。According to the analysis of industry insiders, the core reason behind it is the decrease in the number of players.
Compared with dealer dependence and performance stalls, the greater concern comes from the outside world.
According to the analysis of **, an important reason why trading cards are popular among primary school students is the use of "card drawing" blind box gameplay. Moreover, according to a report by **Times E Company, the Ultraman card album sold by the card game comes with a corresponding collection guide, and in order to collect a complete card album, you may need to buy a large number of card packs, and you may not be able to open all the cards you want. This means that the more cards you want to collect, the higher the level, and the more money you need to invest.
In June 2023, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Guidelines on the Code of Conduct for Blind Box Operations (Trial), which clearly stipulates that blind box operators are not allowed to sell blind box products to minors under the age of 8.
Kayou itself also mentioned in the prospectus that this reflects the strengthened scrutiny of the regulator's blind box business activities, and the change in the regulatory regime may have a material adverse impact on its business.
In addition, many parents have also expressed concerns about the cards. They thought that the cards could be bought at random around the school and that children would be easily addicted to them. Some people even bluntly said that "these cards are the sickles that harvest the wallets of minors, and what they earn is black money."
Source: Black Cat Complaint.
InBlack Cat Complaint PlatformSearch on"Card game" keyword, a total of 36,371 related complaints. The complaints focus on non-delivery for a long time, failure to deliver goods as agreed, refusal of minor refunds, inducement of minors to consume, overlord clauses, etc.
Objectively speaking, Card Game is a dark horse, and in just a few years, it has won the favor of large institutions and sprinted to IPO with its brilliant financial data. But under the hot performance, there is still a crisis and the question of "making money for primary school students".
How to get out of doubts and find new growth points has become a top priority for card games. A lot of the time—
You think he's on the cusp, but he's actually on the cusp.