With the implementation of the ** work report, judging from the published data, the GDP will increase by about 5 in 2024; It is necessary to persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools. And such data cannot stabilize the heart of the steel industry.
The dust has settled on macro expectations, and there is no more than expected to boost the market, that is, it is lower than macro expectations, the steel market is pessimistic, and steel prices follow. This is the real state of the steel market today.
According to the market situation learned from the survey, the expectations of steel mills and steel traders are decreasing, the confidence of the market is quietly changing, and has to turn to bearish thinking, and the price of a large steel trader in the market will fall by 300 yuan, which is not groundless. One is the cost of steel mills, and the other is the bearing limit of steel traders. The current situation is complex and severe, and a considerable number of steel traders will be eliminated this year, followed by steel mills. Such an expectation is not impossible.
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The flash crash of steel prices is just around the corner, and the steel market is wailing. It is rumored on the Internet that steel mills want to boycott steel prices, but this kind of behavior, I think, is useless; Some steel traders are also constantly saying that they regret taking so many goods, and in the face of the current high inventory, they really want to cry without tears. In the face of the downward trend of the steel market, how should we respond? How can I reduce my risk? It is possible to survive in such an environment.
From the perspective of the disk, the current terminal demand for steel is weak, the market expectation is relatively pessimistic, and the black industry chain has formed a negative feedback pattern. In the case of meager downstream profits, upstream varieties have also been significantly squeezed, and the cost center has moved down to drive steel prices to gradually fall, and the disk is still under pressure in the short term, and the volatility has intensified.
In the past, the market first traded recovery expectations before and after the Spring Festival, and then the weak real demand in the peak season led to a sharp decline in steel prices. From this year's GDP growth target of 5% alone, steady growth is still the main tone, we expect that the actual demand still has a certain degree of resilience, should not be overly pessimistic, steel prices or the rhythm of the first decline and then rise, pay attention to the policy effect and peak season demand recovery strength.
Looking back at the fluctuations of steel last year, it is found that the change in the cost side is the main change in steel prices, and the profit side sometimes plays a negative role. The core lies in the long-term perspective of the contradiction between supply and demand of steel itself is not prominent, and this state may continue this year, so the center of gravity of the bottom area of the steel is the cost support of the raw material end.
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In the medium term, there are no obvious constraints on the raw material side, while the demand level is relatively low, including daily consumption and replenishment, and the support of the raw material side is still unstable. Moreover, steel demand in March is still facing certain risks, although the daily output is not high, but the steel inventory is higher than last year, which will limit the resumption of steel mills in March may not be smooth. On the whole, it is expected that raw material and steel prices will be weak.
At present, the market is pessimistic, entering the March steel transaction, the terminal shipments are lower than last year, the supply adjustment speed lags behind the demand change, and the downstream pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, resulting in a continuous decline in the first half of the year is about to become the last "straw" that crushes the camel, and the market looks forward to good policies and actual demand to help alleviate the fear of the downward cycle of the steel industry that keeps people awake at night.