For a long time, there is a saying that has been circulated among shareholders and has been repeatedly mentioned: "Investment is anti-human, and only by overcoming the weaknesses of human nature can you make money." "* Many people lose psychologically, and it has nothing to do with technology. So, what is the so-called weakness of human nature?
Let's take a simple example.
For example, if you go to a casino to gamble money, go in with 10,000 yuan, and then win 10,000 yuan, at this time, many people will have a psychological phenomenon, that is, put the 10,000 yuan you brought in aside, and put the 10,000 yuan you won on the table as gambling funds to continue gambling.
Many people's mental activities are like this, the 10,000 yuan I brought in is my hard-earned money, I will put it up first to ensure its safety; The 10,000 yuan I won was actually for nothing, and even if I lost, it wouldn't be a big deal.
What do you think? Doesn't that sound reasonable? Do many people have such mental activities? But there's an irrational element to this.
As long as you take this 10,000 yuan and another 10,000 yuan out of this casino, there is no difference between 20,000 yuan and you can buy the same thing, why do you make such a distinction? It's nothing more than you set up different mental accounts and divide the money into categories.
At any time, success is a small probability event. The same goes for investment. Most of the valuable things are "anti-human".
In essence, most worthwhile operations are "anti-human". Exercise, study, patience, courage, calmness, perseverance, deep thinking, and seizing opportunities are all anti-human. People naturally like comfort, but it is these "anti-human" things that really create value.
Going back to what we discussed today, when you have a loss of more than 30% on your shareholding, you should"Margin call"Still"Clearance"？If you understand the anti-human operation just mentioned, the answer is actually already in your heart.
If you buy a ** and lose 30%, how much does it need to rise to pay back? The answer is not 30%, but 428%。For example, if you buy a ** for 10 yuan, it falls by 30%, and the stock price falls to 7 yuan, if the stock price rises by 30% again, it only reaches 91 yuan, you still lose 9%, the stock price needs to rise 428% before you can unwrap it. Because of the change in the base, the deeper the set, the more difficult it is to untie, if it is 50%, then it needs to rise by 100% to untie, let alone make money.
Therefore, after a ** loses 30%, if you want to unbundle as soon as possible, you do need to increase your position, but there is an important problem here, if you continue to increase your position after falling by 30%, then not only can you not untie it, but you will lose more. Whether to increase the position, first of all, we must first judge the trend, and look back at a lot of ** in 2015, which have fallen by more than 90% now.
Let's make an assumption first, the original price is 100 yuan, you buy 1,000 shares, that is 100,000 yuan, when it falls to 30% to 70 yuan, you make up 1,000 shares and add 70,000 yuan, at this time you invested a total of 170,000 yuan, a total of 2,000 shares, now it has fallen 90%, the stock price has fallen to 10 yuan, your 2,000 shares must be 20,000 yuan now, that is to say, you have doubled the position after 30% to get now, a total loss of 883%。So do you think you need to make a margin call?
Remember: a true trader only cares about two things
1. I ** after the trend proves that I do the right thing.
2. What should I do if the trend proves me wrong;
In the future, no one can be precise, and the only thing you will use is the trading rules of the consistency of the rules, which will keep you on the side of the tree in this game of probability.
Profit is not obtained by your winning rate, but by "you lose as little as possible when you do wrong, and you earn as much as possible when you do it right", which is the biggest difference between a practitioner and an analyst.
How to operate the ** trading method - pyramid buying and selling method
The pyramid trading method is a method that uses the pyramid as the criterion for buying and selling, and uses this shape to appropriately adjust and determine the number of buying and selling.
There are two types of pyramid buying and selling, namely the pyramid method and the inverted pyramid selling method.
1. Pyramid method
That is, in the shape of a positive pyramid (regular triangle)*** gradually reduce the purchase amount each time. When the stock price is at its lowest, the number of ** is larger, and then as the stock price gradually increases, the number of purchases decreases.
As shown in the figure below, an investor **will**, so with a structure of 15 yuan per share**800 shares, to **rise to 20 yuan per share, and **400 shares, if the stock price rises to 25 yuan, and still**, you can buy another 200 shares, if there is still **leeway, you can buy another 50 shares.
2. Pyramid selling method
In the same way, when the price is continuous, the number of sales should gradually increase like an inverted triangle, doubling each time in order to obtain the maximum profit.
As shown in the figure below, the stock price of a certain investor will be ** after a period of time, then when the price is 20 yuan per **, he will sell 200 shares first, and when the stock price rises to 25 yuan, he will sell 400 shares, and when the stock price rises to 30 yuan, he will sell them all.
Although the pyramid method of buying less and less is not as large as the profit obtained by investing all at once, it can greatly reduce the risk brought by the stock price to investors. If the second or third purchase is completed**, the investor will not lose much due to the small amount of the second or third purchase. In the same way, the inverted pyramid selling method is to sell ** when the popularity is strong, earn a better spread, and reduce the risk.
The principle of "eight to make up and eight not to make up" that must be grasped in the margin call operation:
The first is **: make up when stabilizing, and make up for instability
If the whole ** is in the beginning of the decline stage after peaking, ** neither stops the fall nor stabilizes when the position is replenished, it will only increase the "hedged side" of the chips and accelerate the "shrinkage rate" of the market value.
The second is the femoral nature: familiar supplement, unfamiliar and unfamiliar
If you are not familiar with the fundamentals and stock nature of participating in the replenishment, it will increase the blindness of the replenishment operation, and you will have countless hearts and insufficient confidence. Of course, it is difficult to have the desired result in such a margin call.
The third is performance: good compensation, bad not supplement
Generally speaking, investors who are ready to make a margin call should first choose a company with good performance to make a margin call, and in principle, companies with performance problems cannot increase their positions. Although from the final result, some problematic companies do not rule out the possibility of a sharp rise in stock prices, from a prudent point of view, it is still not appropriate to participate in the replenishment of such problematic companies.
Fourth, the trend: make up when it rises, and do not make up for the break
From a technical point of view, the margin call emphasizes the principle of prudence, so for some companies that have been in the upward channel for a long time and the secondary market trend is relatively stable, when the stock price suddenly turns around or even shows signs of breaking, they should give up the margin call. On the contrary, for those companies that have been performing poorly for a long time, when there are signs of rising, they can follow up in time.
Fifth, ups and downs: make up for the big fall, and don't make up for the big rise
In terms of the timing of margin call, it is generally chosen when the relevant varieties fall sharply or even sharply**. It should be noted that some companies with huge gains and huge profits, the main force of the position will often take advantage of the first start to ship, and investors who are unclear and improperly replenished their positions may also become unfortunate high-level receivers when they make up their positions during this kind of sharp fall. Therefore, there is also a premise for making up for the big fall and not making up for the big rise, that is, the historical increase cannot be too large.
Sixth, profit and loss: make up for the positive difference, and do not make up for the contrast
For the chips sold before, you must adhere to this principle when making up the position, and make up the position when the chips sold appear ** and there is a positive return. On the contrary, when the chips sold appear **, there is no positive chance to take back, it is not appropriate to make up the position. If you really want to make up the position, you must also wait patiently for a period of time, and wait for the stock price to fall back before making up the "positive difference".
Seven is the rhythm: ** time to make up, reverse draw does not make up
On the basis of complying with the above-mentioned margin call principle, it is also necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of the entry and exit of the margin call operation in the actual margin call operation. In particular, it is necessary to do: absorb the dip in the process of waiting to be bought, and do not grab chips in the reverse draw and **.
Eight is **: light time can be made up, heavy not made up
When making a margin call, you should also pay attention to the proportion of a single variety in the market value of the entire account, and make a margin call in accordance with the general requirements of "controlling, matching". When the ** of a single variety does not reach the upper limit, it can be replenished, otherwise it is not appropriate to make a margin call. Even if you have a soft spot for a particular variety, you must adhere to this principle.
Three iconic signals to increase positions
1. The stock price trend in the time-sharing chart is relatively stable, and there is a sudden rise in a straight line, and investors can actively intervene in such a trend, because the stock price is so rapid and strong, which often means the outbreak of strong stocks, or the emergence of a sudden positive, the main force rushes to raise, so that the stock price will often have opportunities in the future:
2. After the opening of the market in the morning, the time-sharing trend rose steadily, and the trading volume was rapidly enlarged. In practice, this kind of ** is often high after the fast **, and then**, showing a small V trend, when the second ** breaks through the opening high, investors can appropriately increase their positions:
3. Volume and price analysis is very critical, we must always pay attention to the trading volume, especially the sudden appearance of the volume, as shown in the figure, the stock is in the trend of the current volume, it is likely that the main force is preparing to open a position, and investors can actively intervene. On the contrary, if the stock price shows a trend and the stock price is large, it is likely that the main force is shipping, and investors should remain vigilant, and the stock price should be small in time, and do not increase the position.
If you have been in ** for a long time, you will find that ** itself is not complicated.
The reason why the vast majority of people lose money is that there is a problem with stock selection, and the timing is not right, and finally because of mood swings, they sell indiscriminately, which leads to losses.
The principle of trading is the most important thing that a person must find out as soon as possible after entering the **.
Only by establishing your own trading principles, you will not be confused when you make the best investment, you will not be affected by emotional fluctuations, and it is possible to find the true value.
If you have to ask if there is a shortcut, then understanding is the biggest shortcut in investment.
The better the understanding, the closer to success.
Investment, especially investment, there is no textbook growth path, everything depends on yourself, the master leads the door, and the practice depends on yourself.
Do long-term, like to study business, have a mind and can think independently, can do desk work for a long time, can do independent in-depth thinking to reach the origin of things, likes to think, can withstand many days in a row, thinking for more than eight hours a day.
There is a set of mature and scientific investment philosophy and ideological guidance.
The current environment is becoming more and more unfavorable to careers. It's getting harder and harder to do, more and more. In the area of long-term investment, the effectiveness of the market is getting stronger and stronger, and all kinds of holes have basically been filled.
Profession** is suitable for those who lose up. One is that you are just a young rotten boy, who can't do anything, and you start frying at the age of 18, and you can't figure out what to do when you reach 25.
The second type is the uncle who is basically free of wealth, you take out part of your savings to speculate, and retire when you lose all of them.
The most unsuitable is a half-baked person who has no money at the age of 30 or 40, who is not easy to do at work, and takes the profession as a retreat, thinking that he is the 1%. By the way, I'm just that kind of fool, and I got lucky enough to come out. If you can't get out, you're almost wasted in this life!
No hard work, no gain, pay will eventually be rewarded, there is no invincible trading system, only invincible people who use the trading system! This is the truth, the trading system will eventually return to people! I am always winning, success is not accidental, opportunities are also reserved for those who are prepared, I hope you can practice!