This year, after entering the stunning solar term, the cold air is still relatively active overall. At present, there will be 3 more cold air waves affecting our country in the next 10 days. However, the strength of the cold air is not strong, and it will not be as cold as after the previous cold wave. After the influence of cold air in recent years, the north will start a "rocket" warming, and many places may enter spring ahead of schedule. The south is affected by the rain, and the temperature rises slowly.
March is the most concentrated time for spring in the country.
According to China Weather Network, the cold air that is currently affecting China will continue to move eastward and southward today to affect the eastern part of Jiangnan and South China. Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, the temperature in South China will continue to drop, and the maximum temperature in many places will drop to less than 20, turning from warm to cool. At the same time, the dry and cold northerly winds will also "blow away" the higher humidity in the air in South China, and the "return to the south" will gradually ease.
After this round of cold air, there will be cold air activities around the 7th-8th, 11th-12th, and 15th, and the temperature in the northern region will fluctuate frequently. However, it has entered the "spring March", and the warm will gradually prevail in the cold and warm competition, and the temperature will gradually rise in fluctuations.
National temperature anomaly forecast. **Courtesy of the Meteorological Observatory.
The stinging solar term is followed by valley rain, during which the temperature will continue to rise. According to statistics, from 1991 to 2020, the temperature increased by 3 compared with the rainy period23, the temperature rise is the second highest in the spring solar terms. At this time of the year, the average temperature of 10 will quickly rise from the northern part of South China during the beginning of spring to the northern part of Hubei and the southern part of Shaanxi.
All year round, the warmth of the stinging solar term is rapidly expanding to the north, and the 10th line reaches the central part of Sichuan, northern Hubei, central Anhui, and southern Jiangsu. From the perspective of big cities, March is also the most concentrated time for spring in the country, and 15 provincial capital-level cities such as Chengdu, Changsha, Wuhan and Hangzhou will start the process of spring one after another.
Isn't it spring after the "beginning of spring"? Climatically speaking, the beginning of spring is only a prelude to spring. According to the climate standard, the Qingming solar term in the northeast and northwest of China only enters spring, the spring equinox solar term in North China, the first spring in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the rainy solar term in the southwest region.
From a meteorological point of view, temperature is a "threshold" of spring. According to the meteorological industry standard issued in 2012, the classification index for spring is the daily average temperature or moving average temperature greater than or equal to 10 and less than 22. Among them, the moving average temperature value is the average value of the five data of the day and the previous 4 days, which is more rigorous than other methods, and can filter out the influence of temperature fluctuations to a certain extent. When the sliding average temperature series is greater than or equal to 10 for 5 consecutive days, the first date that reaches the spring index is selected as the starting day of spring from the 9-day measured daily average temperature data corresponding to the 5 sliding values.
Spring in the south is "grinding", and many places in the north may enter spring in advance.
Judging from the meteorological data, the sting is one of the fastest warming solar terms, after entering the sting this year, the weather in the north is very appropriate, and the south is a little "deviation": due to the rapid heating, the spring in many places in the North China Plain may come in advance, and the spring in many places may come more than half a month in advance, and the spring in the south is still "grinding".
Next, the temperature in the north will fluctuate all the way to the warmer, and it will be "ridiculously warm". First of all, due to the influence of cold air, the temperature in the north will first undergo a process of decline. **The Meteorological Observatory predicts that from the 7th to the 8th, there will be 2-6 cooling in Huanghuai, North China, Northeast China and other places, accompanied by 4-5 and 7-8 gusts; Around the 11th-12th, there will be 4-6 cooling in the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, accompanied by 4-5 northerly winds with gusts of 6-7.
However, due to the overall weakness of the cold air, especially in the north, where there is less precipitation and sunny weather, the temperature will rise faster. It is expected that around the 11th, the maximum temperature in many places from southern Hebei to Huanghuai can reach about 20, which is significantly higher than that of the same period in normal years, and can generally be 5-6 higher. From today, rain and snow are expected to decrease significantly and stop in the north, helping to warm up.
Like Shijiazhuang and Zhengzhou, the maximum temperature on the 11th is expected to reach 20+, which will refresh the new high temperature in the two places this year, and the highest temperature in Beijing is also expected to rush to 19 on the 15th, and it will even be higher than the temperature in many southern cities on the same day.
All year round, the average temperature of 10 lines at the time of sting reaches the first line of central Sichuan, northern Hubei, central Anhui and southern Jiangsu, and most of the south will enter spring at this time. But this year, there has been a "deviation", and the temperature in the south has risen slowly, slowing down the pace of entering spring.
National precipitation forecast map. **Courtesy of the Meteorological Observatory.
One of the reasons for the slow recovery of temperatures in the south is the frequent rainy weather, which is expected to remain rainy in the coming week. It is expected that from the 9th to the 11th, there will be light to moderate rain in Jiangnan, South China and the eastern part of Southwest China, of which there will be heavy to heavy rain in the southern part of Jiangnan and South China. Around the 13th-14th, there will also be light to moderate rain in the above areas.
Beijing News reporter Wang Jingxi.
Edited by Zhang Lei and proofread by Li Lijun.