Li Bin gave Weilan New Energy a problem - to design a 150-degree battery for NIO ET7, so that the cruising range of this sedan can reach 1,000 kilometers, but the weight of the battery cannot exceed 600 kg. The weight of the 100-degree liquid battery equipped with the NIO ET7 has reached 555 kg, and the weight of the semi-solid-state battery of Weilan New Energy has only increased by 20 kg to 575 kg. Obviously, this is a battery with a higher energy density.
On January 9, 2021, NIO announced that ET7 would use solid-state battery technology, and the next day Li Bin refuted the rumors that the "solid-state battery" mass-produced in 2022 is a semi-solid-state battery to be precise. In December 2023, Li Bin drove a NIO ET7 equipped with a semi-solid-state battery for 1,044 kilometers. It is expected that in May and June this year, this semi-solid-state battery will appear in NIO's battery swap station.
2023 is also regarded by many industry insiders as the first year for solid-state battery technology. The four main materials of lithium batteries are positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte, and separator. The role of the electrolyte and the separator is to realize the free shuttle of lithium ions. Solid-state batteries replace electrolytes with solid-state electrolytes to solve battery safety problems. At the same time, solid-state batteries can be matched with positive and negative electrode materials with higher energy density to improve the energy density of the battery.
Figure Visual China.
The iteration of battery technology is essentially a competition between different material systems, and its evolution history is the process of human beings "taming" different materials, striving to seek a balance between energy density, safety, cost and other dimensions, and solid-state batteries are considered to be the "ultimate batteries" that can balance multiple needs.
In the solid-state battery track, from traditional liquid battery giants to start-ups, they all hope to replicate the success of Chinese companies in the liquid battery field in the past. At the beginning of the 21st century, when BYD entered the battery industry, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not a mature technical route, but through technological iteration, they eventually led to the development of the entire industrial chain. Solid-state batteries are believed to also provide such an outlet for the industrial chain.
Solid-state battery technology tuyere
Two "unicorn" companies in China's solid-state battery field: Qingtao Energy, completed the G+ round of financing, with a valuation of about 26 billion yuan; The valuation of Weilan New Energy is about 15.7 billion yuan. Since 2023, the two "unicorn" companies have made frequent moves.
Founded in 2016, Weilan New Energy has a number of car companies and automotive industry chain participants such as NIO, Geely, Huawei, Xiaomi, and Lotus. NIO holds nearly 15 shares and is the largest single shareholder.
Qingtao Energy has successively introduced state-owned automobile groups such as BAIC, SAIC and GAC as strategic investment shareholders. In May 2023, SAIC Motor said that it would invest no more than 2.7 billion yuan and indirectly hold about 1529 shares, becoming its second largest shareholder.
Car companies are betting on solid-state battery technology precisely because liquid batteries cannot balance safety and energy density. Compared with the two mainstream technical routes of liquid batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries are safer than ternary batteries, but the energy density cannot be compared with them. Yu Huigen, chairman of Weilan New Energy, told China News Weekly that solid-state batteries have been given an opportunity.
Depending on the electrolyte material, there are three technical routes for solid-state batteries: oxides, sulfides and polymers. Among them, sulfide as an electrolyte material has higher conductivity but is more difficult to prepare, while China is more interested in oxide technology.
It is precisely because Chinese companies are choosing more oxide technology routes that there is a "gray area" between liquid batteries and all-solid-state batteries, that is, "semi-solid-state batteries". "According to the content of the electrolyte, batteries can be divided into liquid, solid-liquid mixed state, and all-solid-state. The 'solid-state battery' on the market today is a relatively general concept, as long as a solid-state electrolyte is added and the electrolyte content is reduced, it is considered to be an application of solid-state battery technology. From liquid batteries to all-solid-state batteries is a gradual process, the semi-solid-state batteries mass-produced by Weilan New Energy have reduced the electrolyte content to less than 10, which belongs to the initial stage of solid-liquid mixed state, but when this ratio drops to less than 1, it is close to all-solid-state batteries. Yu Huigen told reporters.
The change of the electrolyte in the battery to a solid electrolyte may reduce the energy density of the battery, and the increase in energy density mainly depends on the change of the positive and negative electrode materials. Yu Huigen likes to compare the positive and negative electrodes to two "monsters", and the electrolyte can only "tame" the lower-level "monsters", because the available positive and negative electrode materials are limited, and its energy density is about 300Wh kg, and the current energy density of mainstream liquid ternary batteries is 260 280Wh kg. From liquid batteries to semi-solid-state batteries, and then to all-solid-state batteries, the ability to tame "monsters" is actually improving, and positive and negative electrode materials that can bring higher energy density can be used. "The most typical is the change of anode material, the anode material of liquid batteries can only use graphite, the semi-solid-state battery delivered by Weilan New Energy to NIO has been doped with silicon in the anode material, and the only thing that can finally 'tame' the lithium metal anode may be the all-solid-state battery. "The theoretical gram capacity of the silicon anode is 10 times that of the graphite anode.
A similar story occurs at the positive end. In 2019, the "811 battery" was mired in controversy due to several spontaneous combustion accidents, and the "811 battery" is a ternary lithium battery with a nickel-cobalt-manganese content ratio of 8:1:1 in the cathode material. Yu Huigen told reporters that the higher the nickel content in the cathode material, the higher the energy density, but because nickel is more active, it is more difficult to be 'tamed'. But semi-solid-state batteries can tame cathode materials with a nickel content of up to 90%.
The process of taming is also the process of the battery becoming safer, the most intuitive manifestation is the change of the operating temperature zone, the current temperature exceeds 55 when the liquid battery will stop working, and the semi-solid-state battery, all-solid-state battery will increase this upper limit to .
In Yu Huigen's words, solid-state battery technology is characterized by "three highs", high safety, high temperature area, and high energy density, corresponding to the three core anxieties of new energy vehicles: the first is safety anxiety, unless deliberately destroyed, spontaneous combustion caused by collision and overcharge will become a thing of the past. The second is low-temperature anxiety, and it is the norm for liquid batteries to be "discounted" in winter, especially for lithium iron phosphate batteries. Although the low-temperature performance of solid-state batteries has not been significantly improved, it can operate in high-temperature environments, so solid-state batteries can be insulated, insulated, and heated, so that they do not work in low-temperature environments. The second is range anxiety, taking the semi-solid-state battery mass-produced by NIO ET7 as an example, with a nominal range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
Although some new energy vehicles equipped with liquid batteries can also achieve a range of 1,000 kilometers, Yu Huigen said that they come at the cost of higher energy consumption. "This is also the reason why many car companies do not pursue 1000 kilometers of battery life at present, liquid battery energy density is limited, and the only way to increase the mileage is to add batteries, which pushes up the weight of the vehicle and improves energy consumption. Solid-state battery technology can increase the range of the vehicle while reducing the weight of the vehicle by increasing the energy density. ”
He told reporters that for every 100 kilograms of weight reduction of the vehicle, energy consumption can be reduced by 3 10, with the lower limit of 3 as the standard, Weilan new energy has been calculated for the public a new energy vehicle with a range of 617 kilometers, to achieve the same mileage, semi-solid-state batteries, all-solid-state batteries can be installed less than 34 degrees 54 degree battery, respectively reduce the cost of 3000 yuan, 5000 yuan battery cost.
In fact, 1000 km range is just a starting point for semi-solid-state batteries, and the energy density of semi-solid-state batteries can theoretically be higher. Taking lithium iron phosphate batteries as an example, the energy density of the battery pack is about 160 Wh kg, the energy density of the ternary battery pack is 200 250 Wh kg, and the energy density of the NIO ES6 semi-solid-state battery pack is more than 260 Wh kg. In the future, with the introduction of new cathode and anode materials, the efficiency of cell grouping will be further improved, and the energy density of semi-solid-state battery packs will be increased from 200 Wh kg to 300 Wh kg of existing liquid battery packs. Yao Meng, director of solid-state battery research and development of Enli Power, told China News Weekly.
Fewer batteries, more range", the story sounds beautiful, but only if the cost is similar to that of a liquid battery.
Weilan new energy semi-solid-state battery production line. Figure provided by the interviewee.
How do I "squeeze the table"?
When lithium battery raw materials return to normal, the ongoing "war" of the lithium battery industry will undoubtedly put pressure on solid-state battery technology to enter the market. The strong demand for cost reduction also determines the choice of battery technology routes for car companies, as evidenced by the rise of lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries.
Zhong Liang, senior director of battery technology at Xpeng Motors, publicly stated last year that he would pay more attention to new battery technologies that can meet low cost and fast charging performance, such as lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries.
Zhu Guannan, vice president of Guoxuan Hi-Tech International Engineering Research Institute, told China News Weekly that for power batteries, the current power of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries is mostly 40 60 kWh and 80 120 kWh. Lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries can fill the gap between the two, covering the 60 to 80 kWh electric range, and the cost is also in between. "The industry has always been concerned about the cost of ternary batteries, especially now that the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been close to the BOM standard cost, and lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries can improve the energy density of batteries under the condition of controlling costs, approaching the level of medium nickel ternary batteries, and the impact on the market share of ternary batteries is more significant. ”
Lithium iron manganese phosphate materials have appeared twenty or thirty years ago, and it is in today's market atmosphere with strong demand for cost reduction that battery manufacturers and material manufacturers have increased their investment in research and development, which can be said to be the technical route spawned by the current market environment. Zhu Guannan said.
Zhong Liang once bluntly said that the current cost of semi-solid-state batteries is too high, twice that of liquid batteries. Clearly, cost is the main obstacle to the failure of SLCs to enter the market on a large scale.
A battery manufacturer told reporters that he felt the subtle changes in the attitude of car companies towards semi-solid-state batteries. "A year ago, battery manufacturers have sent samples of semi-solid-state batteries to car companies, and the other party has expressed strong interest and even proposed a more radical product application route. However, as car companies faced greater pressure to reduce costs in the second half of last year, car companies gradually turned from enthusiastic pursuit to cautious wait-and-see for semi-solid-state batteries. There are also new power car companies that have clearly postponed the plan to put semi-solid-state batteries on the car. ”
On the one hand, the change in materials is changing the performance of the battery, and on the other hand, it is also pushing up the cost of the battery in the short term. Zhu Guannan revealed that the cost of Guoxuan Hi-Tech's semi-solid-state battery is 5 10 higher than that of ternary batteries, mainly because the silicon anode material used has not yet been mass-produced, but it has more than 50 cost reduction space in the future, which is expected to be on par with the existing graphite anode material.
Cobalt is 3 5 times that of nickel, and solid-state battery technology can be compatible with high-nickel cathode materials, which means that it uses less cobalt than ternary battery cathode materials, and will have more cost advantages in the future. Yu Huigen said that the cost of high-nickel materials must be lower than that of medium-nickel materials, and the reason for the current higher cost is that it has not yet been produced on a large scale.
Large-scale production will play an important role in reducing costs. As for when the inflection point comes, Yao Meng said frankly that the reason why the industry believes that when the output reaches a certain order of magnitude, it can better control the cost, because after reaching a certain level of production capacity, it can independently support upstream manufacturers, which means that battery factories have more bargaining space for upstream enterprises, and for downstream car companies, they can also promote new models with more confidence with a certain production capacity support. "The industry's inflection point is different, but it is mostly at the 10 GWh level. ”
Weilan New Energy**, after the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries, will reduce the cost of existing liquid ternary batteries by 10 20, Qingtao Energy's conclusion is more radical, and it is expected that the cost reduction will reach 40%.
The premise of cost reduction is mass production, and for solid-state battery technology, the most important thing at the moment is to "squeeze the table", not only in the field of power batteries. Energy storage batteries are obviously a more "involutional" market than power batteries, and the procurement of batteries for some large-scale energy storage projects has been as low as 0 per watt-hour$3.
The requirements of energy storage customers are that they cannot be higher than the existing lithium iron phosphate energy storage batteries, but as a late-developing product, they cannot have no advantages, and can only seek a balance between the application of new technologies and cost control. Yu Huigen said frankly that for semi-solid-state batteries, the most important thing at this stage is to squeeze the table, and then iterate the product after squeezing the table. "This year, the cooperation with the 'five big and six small' power generation companies will be implemented one after another, and the accumulation of application cases means that it has successfully squeezed the table. ”
Yao Meng believes that in the market introduction stage, two things need to be done, the first is to carry out targeted research and development for market segments in the short term, highlight the advantages of solid-state battery technology, and find some market segments that liquid batteries are not capable of doing and have a high cost tolerance, and such a market may not be the power battery market. Secondly, some solid-state battery technologies can be put into the market in advance under the existing liquid battery technology system, such as composite separator technology, positive and negative electrode interface optimization technology, etc., which can already be imported into the existing business system, and the cost of these new technologies will be optimized in advance.
Yao Meng told reporters that the performance of the battery can be divided into five dimensions: energy density, life, rate (fast charging performance), cost and safety. However, in the early stage of the launch of semi-solid-state battery products, it is difficult to take into account these five dimensions.
The cost of the initial stage of the birth of new technologies must be relatively high, and power batteries have higher requirements for the production capacity scale and cost control ability of battery manufacturers, such as the production capacity scale must reach at least 1 2 GWh, which is difficult for start-ups. Yao Meng told reporters that Enli Power was the first to choose to enter the UAV market, because the pain points of the UAV market can just be made up for with the advantages of semi-solid-state batteries, which have relatively high requirements for energy density, and because the battery is smaller, it is not more sensitive to battery cost than new energy vehicles, but the ultimate goal must be to enter the automotive power battery market.
On May 9, 2022, in a new energy company in Hefei, Anhui Province, employees carried out combined laser welding for lithium iron phosphate battery packs. New in the figure.
"Crab-eating" car companies
Yu Huigen was once asked by Lei Jun, "Who was your first customer?" In his view, this represents the tangled attitude of car companies towards solid-state battery technology, which is neither willing to advance nor lag behind. "Crab-eating" car companies have become particularly important.
Yu Huigen said frankly that NIO adopts a battery swap mode and is relatively insensitive to cost. If the vehicle sales model is adopted, it may be difficult to directly reflect the higher battery cost in the vehicle price. "Weilan's next task is to reduce the cost of semi-solid-state power batteries, this year can control the cost gap between it and ternary batteries within 10, in the future, with the increase in production, especially the cost reduction of cathode materials, the overall cost of semi-solid-state power batteries will be the same as liquid batteries. ”
If the semi-solid-state battery can be reduced to the same level as the ternary battery, the advantage of fewer batteries will appear, and the installation of semi-solid-state batteries will become a cost-reducing option for car companies. Yu Huigen said that he is still waiting for the arrival of this inflection point, and the real "outbreak" will come in 2026, when four or five automakers will choose Weilan New Energy's semi-solid-state batteries.
According to the reporter's understanding, several car companies and Weilan New Energy have promoted semi-solid-state batteries on the car, including many foreign car companies, two of which are expected to be launched in the first half of next year.
The main market for semi-solid-state batteries is in mid-to-high-end models, which compete with liquid ternary batteries. For the "comfort zone" of semi-solid-state batteries in the power battery market, this is the consensus of the industry. Zhu Guannan believes that the cruising range of 600 800 kilometers will become a rigid demand for mid-to-high-end models in the future.
Qingtao Energy has set the goal of reaching 100,000 annual sales of solid-state battery vehicles by 2025.
Yu Huigen said frankly that the core task of this year is to ensure the demand of NIO, and the existing production capacity will go all out to ensure the best quality, and on this basis, we will increase cooperation with the two car companies on this basis next year. "NIO's needs are very clear, there are more than 2,000 existing battery swap stations, and some car owners may rent 150-degree semi-solid-state batteries per day when they have long-distance travel needs during holidays. ”
The production capacity of semi-solid-state batteries is still in the ramp-up stage. "In the case of limited existing production capacity, Weilan New Energy's logic now is to run in small steps and deliver semi-solid-state battery products.
Second, the third vehicle factory loading, after solving the process from 0 to 1, the process from 1 to n needs to rely on the scale to reduce costs, this year's company's core task is to expand the scale, may ensure that Weilai's first guard blue will be ranked in the top ten power battery installed capacity this year. ”
At the end of last year, Enpower has put into production a 03 GWh production line, 2 GWh production line will be built this year, and a 0The 3 GWh production line will be put into operation this year. "We expect the production capacity of semi-solid-state batteries to ramp up faster than expected, and Enpower plans to build a production line with a capacity of 10 GWh around 2025. Yao Meng told reporters.
At the same time, Weilan New Energy is also opening up the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and has now contracted a production line of cathode material giant Rongbai Technology for cathode coating.
The past 2023 is regarded by Li Guogang as the first year of mass production of semi-solid-state batteries, and it has officially entered the industrialization stage, and the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries will appear between 2027 and 2030. Semi-solid-state batteries are in the ascendant, and the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries has not yet begun, but the opportunities left for market participants are already limited.
Solid-state battery technology is still in its infancy, but it is crucial, similar to driving at high speeds, and you have to find the right entrance when switching to another highway. Yao Meng said frankly that the industry respects the car companies that "eat crabs". Enpower is in close contact and cooperation with leading car companies at home and abroad, and almost all car companies are interested in solid-state battery technology, but they are quite cautious at this stage. "Car companies hope that battery manufacturers will be more proactive, hoping that the latter can come up with semi-solid-state batteries that can be tested on the car in a short period of time and have a certain production capacity, and then carry out more in-depth cooperative research and development for specific models. ”
He believes that the stage of investment layout of car companies has passed, has come to the semi-solid-state battery industrialization threshold, some start-ups may be difficult to get financing, more opportunities are reserved for those who have technology accumulation, can come up with more mature products, but lack of close cooperation with car companies for joint research and development of battery manufacturers.
In the field of solid-state batteries, how many opportunities are there under the giants?
During the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show, CATL officially released the condensed matter battery, saying that its single energy density can reach up to 500Wh kg, which is considered by the industry to be a semi-solid-state battery. Earlier, in June 2022, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, revealed at the Chongqing Auto Show that "in addition to all-solid-state batteries, semi-solid-state batteries, including condensed matter batteries that everyone has never heard of, CATL is engaged in it."
Yao Meng said that the attitude of liquid battery giants such as CATL and BYD towards solid-state batteries is more like "duck paddling", calm on the water and exert force underwater. "At present, the demand for lithium battery market is huge, and the first task of the giants is to expand production capacity and seize the market, and new technologies will definitely have an impact on the production capacity layout of traditional technologies, which is the entanglement of the giants, while start-ups have no historical baggage. However, the giants also have very solid technical reserves for solid-state batteries. ”
Can China continue to lead the way?
Many respondents like to mention lead-acid batteries, which were invented in the 19th century and still have a market share of about 40 percent, and so on, compared the question of the relationship between liquid batteries and solid-state batteries in the future, that is, "long-term coexistence", and no one can give an answer as to how long "long-term" is.
Solid-state batteries will not replace all liquid batteries, but will find suitable application scenarios and seek the optimal solution after considering performance, safety and cost. For example, for a new energy vehicle with a range of 500 kilometers, the existing liquid battery can be satisfied. However, in the process of electrification of manned aircraft in the future, on the one hand, it is necessary to ensure absolute safety, and on the other hand, it is necessary to have high requirements for energy density to support aircraft take-off, landing and flight. As a result, electrification in the aviation sector can only wait for all-solid-state batteries, and semi-solid-state batteries cannot meet its needs. Yu Huigen told reporters.
So, how much market share will solid-state batteries occupy in the foreseeable future?
At the end of last year, EVTark said that by 2030, about 10 of lithium batteries will be solid-state batteries, and most of them will be semi-solid-state batteries. In January this year, when China's all-solid-state battery industry-university-research collaborative innovation platform was established, Academician Ouyang Minggao**, in 2030, all-solid-state batteries will account for 1.
Yu Huigen said that in 2030, the total size of the lithium battery market dominated by energy storage and power will reach 6TWh, and the market share of 10 means the demand of 600GWh, and the market share will reach hundreds of billions.
Yao Meng said that China's existing and planned production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounts for a very high proportion of global production capacity, because the company estimates that in the next 5 to 8 years, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will still be strong, and more than 50 power batteries and more than 80 energy storage batteries will still use lithium iron phosphate batteries. Therefore, Chinese companies are still iterating on lithium iron phosphate battery technology, and in the foreseeable future, Chinese companies will still occupy a leading share in the lithium battery market. Moreover, in the development path from semi-solid-state batteries to all-solid-state batteries, the production capacity of semi-solid-state batteries can be connected with the existing liquid battery production capacity to a considerable extent, and the lithium iron phosphate production line can be converted into a semi-solid-state battery production line under the condition of controllable cost.
Obviously, whether we can seize the solid-state battery outlet is not only related to the success of individual enterprises, but also related to whether the advantages of the domestic battery industry can be maintained.
In the export of the "new three", new energy vehicles and lithium batteries are closely linked, a new energy vehicle in about 40 of the cost from the power battery, China has many independent intellectual property rights and a complete industrial chain, naturally do not want to give up the advantages that have been established in this field due to technology iteration, is always on guard against the opportunity to be "overtaken" again on this track, obviously, solid-state battery technology is regarded as such an opportunity.
Different from the oxide technology route chosen by Chinese companies, Japanese companies are more inclined to the sulfide technology route, hoping to achieve all-solid-state batteries in one step.
In recent years, Japanese car companies have announced the timetable for the production and launch of solid-state batteries. In April 2023, Honda Motor announced that it would invest in the research and development of a new generation of batteries such as semi-solid and solid-state batteries, and in the spring of 2024, it will launch a solid-state battery demonstration production line with an investment of 43 billion yen (about 21 yuan).800 million yuan), the technology will be applied to electric models launched after 2025. Nissan Motor will also build a solid-state battery trial production line in 2024 and plan to start mass production in 2028. Toyota wants to launch hybrid vehicles that use solid-state batteries by 2025.
On October 12, 2023, Toyota and Japanese petrochemical company Idemitsu Kosan announced that they will cooperate in mass production of all-solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, with the goal of mass production and practical use of all-solid-state batteries from 2027 to 2028. Toyota has the longest layout in solid-state batteries and is also the company with the largest number of solid-state battery patent applications in the world, with 1,331 known patents. In second place is Panasonic with 445 patents. In third place is Idemitsu Kosan with 272 items.
In fact, such a schedule seems to be very "radical" in the industry, and some Chinese companies even bluntly say that it is hard to believe.
Yao Meng told reporters that Toyota has a very early layout in the field of sulfide solid-state batteries, and has great advantages in the research and development of some key materials and special process equipment. The sulfide material performs very well in terms of electrical conductivity, combining high energy density, safety and super fast charging with a long life. More than a decade ago, Japan made a key breakthrough in the research of sulfide solid electrolytes, so Toyota decided on this technical route. It's just that at present, in the industrialization of power batteries, it may not be as expected, that is, there is a lot of room for improvement in industrialization. "China has more advantages in terms of the completeness of upstream and downstream industries and the speed of response to new technologies. In terms of research and development for industrial transformation, China's ability is very strong, in fact, whether it is lithium iron phosphate batteries or ternary batteries, materials are not invented in China, China's advantage lies in industrial transformation. ”
It is expected that in 2030, when the cost of oxide solid-state batteries is reduced to the level of a few cents per watt-hour, the cost of sulfide solid-state batteries is still 2 yuan 4 yuan watt-hour, "which is currently more in the stage of scientific research."
Issued in 20243.4. The 1130th issue of China News Weekly.
Magazine title: Power Reevolution: The race to the next generation of batteries.
Reporter: Chen Weishan.