Among the world's major economies, most countries have announced their "report cards" for 2023, and those who are declining are still declining, the strong are always strong, and the catch-up ones are full of stamina.
For example, Germany, a member of the European Union, saw its GDP shrink by 03%, becoming the only country with negative growth among the top 10 economies, from the former leader to the current laggard.
Affected by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the direct impact of the "blood-sucking" of the US dollar's interest rate hike, Europe's glory has long been gone, and the GDP growth rate of Britain, France and Italy last year was less than 1%.
In early March, both China and the United States updated their statistics, and the United States once again demonstrated the strength of the largest economy, with U.S. GDP growing by 2 percent year-on-year last year6%, you must know that the total GDP of the United States is as high as 27 trillion US dollars, and the huge scale can also achieve 2The growth of 6% shows that the "blood-sucking" effect of the US interest rate hike last year is still obvious.
China's GDP grew by 5 percent year-on-year last year2%, still belongs to the existence of crushing major economies, but due to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the gap between China's final GDP data and the United States has widened, but China is still the world's second largest economy.
Russia's performance has once again been a surprise, with GDP growing by 3 percent year-on-year last year6%, more than the ** of major institutions, higher than the growth rate of the United States, the total GDP is approaching 2 trillion US dollars, I have to feel that Russia is really getting richer and richer.
If you compare it horizontally with Europe, and directly slap the so-called sanctions of Europe and the United States, Germany's GDP growth is negative, and the GDP growth rate of Britain, France and Italy is less than 1%, but Russia has achieved 3With a growth of 6%, the effect of this kind of sanctions has been significantly reduced, and the sanctioned Russia has become stronger, while Europe itself has fallen into the quagmire of high inflation, high debt, and high energy costs.
Not only that, but Europe and Japan are followed by a fast-catching India, whose GDP grew by 8 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data released by the Bureau of Statistics India4%, compared to 66%, so India's growth rate in the fourth quarter exceeded market expectations.
India's economic growth rate is now very similar to that of China around 2000, India has achieved positive GDP growth for 13 consecutive quarters, and the growth rate in the second and third quarters of 2023 is more than 8%, and only the first quarter growth rate is 62%, so India's GDP growth rate in 2023 will reach 77%。
7With a growth rate of 7%, surpassing China and Russia, it is in a leading position among the world's major economies, and from the current point of view, India is still in a stage of rapid development, so it cannot be underestimated with a population of 1.4 billion.
India proposed many years ago to catch up with Japan by 2030, which was questioned and ridiculed by many people at the time.
According to data released by the Cabinet Office, Japan's GDP in 2023 will be 42 trillion US dollars, overtaken by Germany, the global ranking fell to fourth, while India's GDP rose to 3 in 2023At $48 trillion, it still ranks fifth in the world.
Unexpectedly, India's GDP has reached 82% of Japan's8%, while in 2019, it was only 554%, on the one hand, India's growth rate is really fast, the huge population size attracts a large number of international companies to set up factories in India, and the manufacturing and service industries are growing rapidly.
On the other hand, Japan's GDP has fallen sharply, with a GDP of 5 in 201912 trillion dollars, now only 42 trillion US dollars, in addition to maintaining the advantages of the traditional manufacturing industry, Japan has not made much progress in emerging industries, Japan has lagged behind in the global competition for new industries, and the number of unicorn companies is even less than India.
Japan's GDP growth rate in 2023 will be 19%, compared to 7 in India7%, according to the current economic growth trend of the two countries, India has a great hope of overtaking Japan's GDP before 2030, and it is also a matter of time before it surpasses Germany.
Therefore, after 2030, the top three global economic powers will be China, the United States and India.
However, India's per capita GDP is still at a low level, according to the population size, India's per capita GDP in 2023 will be 2,500 US dollars, and China's per capita GDP will be 1 in the same periodAt 280,000 US dollars, India's per capita level is only one-fifth of China's, and the gap between India's per capita level and Europe, the United States and Japan is even greater.
In short, from the perspective of economic growth and potential, India is an existence that cannot be ignored, catching up with Germany and Japan, impacting the world's top three, is no longer an empty slogan, but is approaching reality, and India did not stand in Europe and the United States after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but imported a large amount of Russian oil, often and Europe and the United States to do it, and Japan and South Korea are very different, India is very strange, but also a clear stream in the world, a unique force.