At the beginning of 2024, China's A-share market became the second worst January in history, and the situation was so severe that it suddenly announced the change of leadership of the China Securities Regulatory Commission before it could wait for the Spring Festival. Due to the interdependence of the primary and secondary markets and mutual constraints at the same time, in order to ensure the stability of the secondary market, the primary market will inevitably become an important starting point27. The impact of the New Deal on the primary market has been further amplified.
This paper aims to analyze the current situation and future evolution trend of the primary market ecology in the context of continuous strengthening of supervision, based on the consideration of cognitive height and information asymmetry, and only from the information that is known and can be confirmed. As we all know, the underlying logic is determined without consideration, but this is the biggest motivation and logical foothold, so the following content is more about the analysis and judgment of phenomena (appearances), and of course the deep-seated reasons will be taken into account as much as possible. The topic is a bit big, and the ability is limited, just for reference, or laughing it off.
In the process of routine research, it is very important to learn from and adopt the views and analysis of authoritative experts, but this time I am afraid that we can not refer to experts too much, as mentioned in the popular article in the circle of friends a while ago (IPO rhythm: 827 New Deal for half a year), many experts' views and arguments are more like "bricks", the reference is not significant, and at the same time, there are more or less certain interests behind it, and it is difficult to ensure objectivity and neutrality of the viewpoint, and this logic also applies to the views and authors' background of the article, so based on this dimensionThe statements of such experts are more seriously personal and have a large enough interest around the capital market to drive and distort the truth.
Based on this, the author believes that instead of analyzing the rights and wrongs of experts' remarks, it is more realistic to study the real intentions behind the expert symposium held by the management department. Therefore, it may be too much to say that it has failed the trust of the authorities, and the symposium may just be a procedure for the CSRC to carry out its work, well, including the investor meeting the next day. As for who to choose? It's also important, it's not important, the important thing is to reflect the attitude, action and signal that you want to express, as for whether there is a gain, it's relatively unimportant, it's not that expert opinions are not important, it's just that the author believes more in the official industry experience and management wisdom, and it's better to find valuable rationalization suggestions, no? It does not affect the established arrangements and plans, so on the basis of confirming this logic, it is more meaningful to observe the recent official measures and actions rather than relying on the analysis and views of experts.
At present, what H&Q Consulting has observed is that the management of the primary market is becoming more and more stringent, on the one hand, many problems brought about by the extensive growth in the past few years need to be corrected; On the other hand, the performance of the secondary market also needs to seek solutions from the primary market, whether it is pragmatic or pragmatic, under the superposition of dual demandsThe continuous strengthening of the management of the primary market will become the norm in the coming period.
At the same time, although the China Securities Regulatory Commission has taken frequent actions recently, with various symposiums, earnest talks, and press conferences, it is still more basic routine actions at the specific operational level for the primary market, mostly focusing on various punishment measures, and IPO companies and intermediaries are more concerned about the relevant policies, even if there are almost no window guidance, and the news vacuum period is permeated with slaughter, and it is inevitable to feel panic.
The new coach has not long taken office, and it takes time to familiarize himself with the situation and various investigations, and it coincides with the convening of the two sessions, so the current situation may have to be maintained for a period of time, and it is not ruled out that it may take several months to gradually become clear, but the recent moves, combined with some background factors, can still provide us with some reference worthy of reference.
Confirm a few relatively firm points:
1. The general policy of the registration system will be implemented for a long time
The biggest manifestation of adhering to the registration system for the primary market is that the phenomenon of IPO suspension will become a thing of the past. This basically does not need to be discussed too much, as I said before, there are 10,000 ways to buffer the speed of IPO financing, why use the reverse way to negate the purpose of the registration system? Moreover, the impact of the IPO on the secondary market is far less than imagined.
Even if it is a registration system with Chinese characteristics, some basic principles still need to be learned and adopted, such as focusing on full information disclosure and market supervision, and focusing on market selection and pricing.
2. There are still many problems in the primary market, but the architecture system is relatively sound
Financial fraud, fraudulent issuance and other phenomena have been repeatedly prohibited, and some mechanisms have been set up unreasonably. On the other hand, China's first market has been established for more than 30 years, and after years of reform and evolution, the basic structure and operation mode tend to be complete, although it cannot be defined as perfect, but it has also embarked on a path that conforms to Chinese characteristics.
3. Some of the problems of the secondary market have a greater impact
For example, it is difficult to delist, margin trading, rat warehouse, etc., and these problems are more challenging to solve.
4. The new commander is more experienced and politically wise
This does not need to be explained too much, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's many years of experience and many years of political experience in Shanghai, whether it is the familiarity with the industry itself or political wisdom, I believe that most of the previous predecessors are from the banking system more comprehensive and familiar. This can also be felt from the various behaviors at the beginning of his tenure, but I will not go into details here, although the final result will take time to tell.
Based on the above points, H&Q Consulting believes thatThe current responsibility of the regulator may lie more with compliance than innovation. So if this point of view is true, it will also derive the next point of view, since it is keeping, it should be steady, peel off the cocoon, and solve the digestive problem step by step, so the pace will not be too fast. At present, the secondary market has serious problems, and the primary market has just undergone a major registration-based reform, and it cannot withstand and does not have the conditions for a big toss in the short term, or it is not necessary, but it may be the safest way to tinker with the inherent pattern. Moreover, the recent outstanding performance of the secondary market has largely alleviated the pressure on the primary market and bought more time for the management to think deeply.
Governance of the market must be two-pronged, the primary and secondary markets are carried out simultaneously, compared to the secondary market problems are more serious and direct, and the primary market has the greatest impact on the secondary market The factor that has the greatest impact on the secondary market is that financial fraud and fraudulent issuance of enterprises should not be listed, soFor the primary market, many problems can be solved by controlling the declaration link, so the stricter review should be the format that can be confirmed in the futureAfter all, it is much easier to implement than to deal with the delisting of zombie listed companies, and it suffers less resistance and backlash. MoreoverThe stricter means that the number and speed of filings will be curbed, which will reduce the financing pressure in the secondary market, which is even more significant in addressing confidence and dissatisfaction. Strict management and improving the quality of IPO enterprises are themselves things that are correct in thinking, politically correct, and in the right way. When this trend is established, it is likely to be normalized in the future, which will have a profound impact on the primary market.
In a real-life scenario,From January to February 2024, the market will only accept 1, a year-on-year decrease of 99%. The number of IPOs terminated has reached 54, an increase of nearly 15% over the same period last year, of which 18 companies have been terminated on the Beijing Stock Exchange, an increase of 125%.
Resuming work after the Spring Festival, whether it is an IPO company or an intermediary agency, the reaction and action have begun to be at the same frequency as the trend, if we say 8After the 27 policy, the market continued to tighten and began to cool down, so it should now have entered the winter, changing the situation of the same period in the pastSome companies out of prudence, slow down or delay the pace of declaration, tightening the company and securities companies began to think about whether the company's conditions meet the current declaration requirements, the Beijing Stock Exchange has become the alternative or even the first choice for many other sector target enterprise groups, and the proportion is very high, but according to this development, the Beijing Stock Exchange will soon form a silted lake. Therefore, whether it is an enterprise or an intermediary agency, the most important thing is the clarity and consistency of the policy. 2023 is the year of the failure of the capital of consumer enterprises, so who will be in 2024?
Stricter is the consensus, the current hesitant enterprises are not because of the possibility of fraud, but the unpredictable fear of the tightening situation, do not want to be caught typical and wrongly killed, after all, there will inevitably be some flaws in the development process of the enterprise, some small problems in the declaration of relaxation period are often harmless, but if it is in the strict audit process, if it is targeted because of this, it may have a negative impact on the reputation and development of the enterprise, especially in today's developed environment of information transmission. There are also some affected by the economic situation in recent years, the performance of enterprises has changed, and it may be difficult to meet the listing conditions. In addition, there is another situation where the company is in good condition, with excellent and stable performance, but the actual controller is not interested in the capital market originally, and the state of mind of a small rich person is safe, and the listing of the enterprise is often driven by external factors, so in the case of a cold or uncertain market, the actual controller will tend to adopt a conservative approach, which is not uncommon.
Aside from the extreme situation of bankruptcy without listing, the pressure of the vast majority of enterprises comes from the outside, such as investment institutions, VAM agreements, and the impact of listing on the operation of enterprises mainly lies in the lack of a condition for rapid development, rather than fatal, the general environment is tightening, and there is room for communication and coordination between all parties. SoOn the whole, the tightening of the primary market and the ups and downs of policies have more impact on the confidence of enterprises, which is similar to the secondary market
It is undeniable that listing is still an extremely important stage and financing method in the development process of Chinese enterprises at present and for a long time in the future, and it is also the embodiment of the achievements of entrepreneurs over the years. Therefore, when the trend and order are established, there will be no shortage of companies that want to go public, after all, there are a large number of Chinese companies and they are still in the development stage, and there are a lot of opportunities and excellent entrepreneurs. SoAt the management level, while strictly preventing financial fraud and fraudulent issuance, it is necessary to give full play to the role of the capital market to encourage and help outstanding entrepreneurs to develop rapidly through IPO, and more comprehensive and reasonable considerations are needed between the two.
In contrast,All kinds of intermediaries in the primary market are much more anxious, and survival is the most consistent creed of institutions and practitioners. At the beginning of the year, a leading investment bank reported that "all salaries will be reduced by 7,000 yuan, and the year-end bonus will be paid at a four-fold discount". Compared with the head brokerage, small and medium-sized brokerage salary cuts and layoffs are more serious, and the news of a brokerage firm's investment banking business cutting by 30%-70% has quickly swept the screen. The era of rapid listing of enterprises is gradually fading, and the employees of intermediary agencies are facing problems such as salary cuts, KPI assessments, and pressure.
The market has entered the stage of strangulation, and the competition between institutions and the internal competition between institutions has intensified, but this is only the beginning. Unlike in the past, when the economic environment is good, many practitioners have more choices, or to invest in institutions, or to go to enterprises or even start their own businesses, but under the current conditions of the whole environment, how to ensure that they are not laid off is the best or even the only choice for most people. Institutions have to rack their brains to ensure performance and cash flow, the innovation environment and conditions are becoming more and more scarce, the risk is greater, and the business effect of grabbing the dwindling stock is limited but has to do it, and the first war will further compress the limited market space, and the layoffs will be since 8It has already begun after 27, but it is too early to end, and the practitioners will not have to wait until the fig leaf is officially torn apart.
The future will be a process of clearing, but also a process of Pannia, the past few years of the bonus period brought by the savage growth, all parties will use this stage to be active or passive**, the next outlet will still exist, but I don't know how long it will take? Every person in the bureau either leaves, or struggles to survive, and institutions and individuals need to think and precipitate in this process.
Cautiously speaking, one possibility is that the dividend period of the past pigs can go to the sky is difficult to reproduce, the opportunity is very important for everyone, but the weight of the luck component will drop significantly, the multi-gold halo of the primary market will gradually dim, the market is remembered, but the participants have no memory, the fight and market resources will press everyone to the ground and rub repeatedly, the system and competition will become a meat grinder, reshaping the order of the next stage.
The primary market is a product of the times, and so are the participants!
A few bold assumptions:
1. The problem of delisting cannot be solved, and the trend of tightening in the future may exist for a long time;
2. The clouds and fog may not need thunder, and one day looking back has suddenly opened up;
3. The prosperity of the early stage overdraws the future. The main melody will not change, but the note fluctuations will increase;
4. The related service ecological chain will enter a process of clearing, but it will not be clean;
5. In the future, the market will further concentrate on the head institutions;
6. Entering the stage of fighting resources and specialization, the pressure is high and the benefits may not be large;
7. As long as the policy is loosened, the problem of silting up the lake will still be aggravated.