The price of pigs is large**, how much is a pound now? Will it pick up in 2024?
Causes and effects of pig prices**.
After the winter solstice, pork ** began to show a downward trend, especially after the peak of canned meat curing in southwest China, farmers' panic about the slaughter of large pigs intensified. With the arrival of the New Year's Day holiday, the market demand has weakened further. According to common sense, consumption decreases after the holiday, and pork **should**. However, unexpectedly, after several days in a row, the national average of live pigs fell below the 7 yuan mark, and the pig price fell to 6 per cattyAround 99 yuan.
Reason 1: The current pork market situation is complex and faces multiple influencing factors. ** Strong, weak demand, some areas are also affected by the problem of pig disease, coupled with the emotional differentiation within the breeding industry, resulting in the pig market after New Year's Day by the further weakening of the holiday effect, both from the mood and actual consumption, the market has fallen, in a highly sensitive state. In such a sensitive market environment, it is difficult to observe large market fluctuations, as it is easy to overreact to any relevant news, and it is difficult to have both large and large movements.
One day, I went to the butcher shop to buy pork and saw that the pork ** on the counter had dropped to 6 per catty99 yuan, I can't help but have questions. After asking the clerk, I learned that the pork market has been affected by several factors recently. On the one hand, the supply side is strong, the pork production is high, and some places are affected by the pig disease problem, resulting in an increase in the number of live pigs, and the market is relatively sufficient; On the other hand, the demand side is relatively weak, the holiday consumption is reduced after New Year's Day, and the different sentiments in the aquaculture industry have caused a certain degree of impact on the pork market. As a result, even the traditional festival effect cannot support the market**.
Reason 2: With the approach of the pickling season, the market demand has not been effectively supported. Although curing is an important period for pork consumption, this year's curing has a rather limited effect on pork **. Looking at the market situation, there is almost no obvious pulling effect. There are two reasons for this. First of all, this year's consumption is significantly lower than in previous years. During the peak period of pork consumption, the Spring Festival and curing are the two main nodes, but this year, the consumption of these two nodes has been affected by the weakening of the large consumption trend and has shown a downward trend. Secondly, the seasonal timing and scale of curing has also decreased. Due to the hot weather at the beginning of the year, the demand for pickling started slowly, and then the rapid rise in temperatures and the postponement of the pickling season also affected the positive sentiment in the market. This year's curing season lasted shorter than usual, but that doesn't mean the market demand is completely gone. Due to the late Chinese New Year and the corresponding postponement of storage activities in the previous year, market demand may experience a period of insufficient demand due to the fact that the pickling season has not recovered in time after the end of the pickling season.
2024 Pig Price Trend**.
Through an in-depth analysis of the balance of supply and demand in the hog market, it is expected that pork ** may continue to fall after the Spring Festival. The main reasons are as follows: due to the increase in production capacity in the early stage, it is expected that the number of pigs slaughtered in the first quarter of 2024 will increase, which will put pressure on pig prices; After the Spring Festival, it is generally the off-season for pork consumption, which will further increase the downward pressure on pig prices; The frozen meat inventory of slaughtering enterprises remains high, and the storage demand in the off-season after the year decreases, and the support for pigs will weaken, and the support will be significantly weakened.
However, there is uncertainty as to whether pig prices will hit new lows in the first quarter of 2024, depending on the sales volume of the market before the Chinese New Year. If the market sees a lot of sales before the year to reduce the stock, then the ** after the year may not be so pessimistic; Conversely, it may be even more pessimistic. Looking at the number of fertile sows and healthy newborn piglets, pig slaughter is expected in 2024"The front is high and the back is low"trends. From April 2024, it is expected that the number of pigs slaughtered will decrease month by month, and the pressure will gradually reduce. At the same time, with the gradual recovery of consumption in the second half of the year, demand is expected to increase gradually, which is conducive to the recovery of pig prices. Therefore, the pig price trend in 2024 can be summarized as:"Low in the front and high in the back"。
In addition, the trend of pig prices is also affected by various factors such as policies and pig diseases. **Policies to regulate the pork market can have a significant impact on pig prices. At the same time, the problem of pig disease is also a factor that cannot be ignored, and the outbreak of pig disease may have a greater impact on pig prices.
In conclusion, the pig price trend in 2024 is expected to continue the downward trend of this year, but it may also be slightly**. This needs to take into account the impact of factors such as supply and demand balance, political regulation and swine disease. There may be a period of low levels after the Chinese New Year**, which may be followed by a gradual recovery. However, it should be noted that the above is only preliminary, and the specific trend of pig prices still needs to pay close attention to the evolution of market dynamics and various factors.