Since the beginning of the Year of the Dragon, the pharmaceutical concept stocks have ignited the pharmaceutical track, and the pharmaceutical sector has opened.
Around the Spring Festival, the A-share pharmaceutical industry regained its strength in a market that was intertwined with downturns and setbacks, and rebuilt its faith in a market as brutal and changeable as a fighting ring.
Wind data shows thatFrom February 5 to February 23, 2024, Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry Index (801150)**1262%, CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index (931152)**1521%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index (000300) 975% increase.
Past performance of an index is not indicative of its future performance and does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the index**.
At the same time, the turnover and share of related pharmaceutical indices have increased significantly, demonstrating the confidence of funds in the industry. Wind data shows that since the beginning of this year, the turnover of the CSI Biomedical Index (930726) has continued to grow, and the share of the CSI Biomedical Index () has increased by 06.4 billion copies.
Past performance of an index is not indicative of its future performance and does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the index**.
It is worth noting that the positive news continues to strongly support the stabilization of the pharmaceutical sector. Among them, with the implementation of the new version of the National Medical Insurance Catalogue in 2024, many provinces have issued notices in a timely manner to accelerate the implementation of the catalogue drugs. According to data from the National Health Insurance Administration, 121 off-list drugs will be successfully negotiated or successfully bid in 2023, with a success rate of 846%, with an average price reduction of 617%。
2023 is a year of rapid development of innovative drugs around the world, with both the NMPA (National Medical Products Administration) and the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) approving significant recovery growth in the number of new drugs, which is at a high level in recent years. According to the statistics of the China Pharmaceutical Industry Information Center, in 2023, the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) will approve a total of 40 Class 1 innovative drugs for marketing, which is a significant number compared with previous years**. In 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) approved a total of 55 new drugs (38 chemical drugs and 17 biologics).
In addition,In 2024, the NHSA will continue to optimize the reform of payment methods. According to the Notice of the Three-Year Action Plan for the Reform of DRG DIP Payment Methods issued by the National Health Insurance Administration in 2021, the goal is to carry out the reform of DRG DIP payment methods in all regions of the country by the end of 2024, and by the end of 2025, DRG DIP payment methods will cover all eligible medical institutions that provide inpatient services. andWith the deepening of the reform of DRG DIP's payment method, it is more conducive to the sustainable recovery of the pharmaceutical service industry in the long run.
Pharmaceutical investment is like ** life, it is rare to reshape the appearance, but the inner reconstruction is the key.
After a long period of **,The current valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is at a historically low level, and it is expected to usher in a valuation reshaping in the future. Judging from the valuation of Shenwan's first-class pharmaceutical and biological industry and Shenwan's second-level pharmaceutical-related industries, the current price-earnings ratios of each sub-industry are basically close to the relative bottom of the historical range of nearly 10 years, especially biological products and medical services.
It is worth noting that with the continuous optimization of the policy environment, innovative drugs, as one of the more potential tracks in the pharmaceutical field, may gradually increase the proportion of its pharmaceutical market structure.
In terms of policy, in recent years, the domestic innovative drug industry has been supported by the national industrial policyIndustrial policies such as the "Drug Evaluation Center to Accelerate the Review of Marketing Authorization Applications for Innovative Drugs (Trial)", "Technical Guidelines for Program Changes during Drug Clinical Trials (Trial)", etc., provide clear and broad market prospects for the development of the innovative drug industry and provide a good production and operation environment for enterprises.
From a global perspective, the demand side of the CRO (biomedical R&D outsourcing) industry is highly correlated with the economic cycle, and R&D investment is an important driving force to promote the R&D of innovative drugsEven after the 2008-2019 financial crisis, there was still an annualized compound growth rate of about 12% per year, much higher than the growth rate of R&D investment in the same period.
Switching to the domestic macro level, the current economic recovery is improving, the pharmaceutical economy is still recovering, and the high-quality and high-efficiency development of the industry in the future is the main theme. Previously, the central bank lowered the LPR of 5 years and above, from 420% to 395%。At the same time, many cities across the country have started a relatively loose interest rate cut cycle, creating positive conditions for the easing of the macroeconomic and monetary and financial environment this year. Abundant liquidity is more convenient for innovative drug companies to obtain more financing to invest in R&D, production, sales and other business activities, and the capital market has more abundant liquidity for investment.
If pharmaceutical investment is described as "a blast change", thenThe biggest "explosion" should be firm confidence in the industry, the pharmaceutical industry is still developing positively, opportunities are continuous, and the future is still worth paying attention to.