The Western world is feeling deep tension in the changes in the United States in 2024, especially France**, which is like a prophet with a keen sense of smell, warning of the uncertainty and challenges that NATO may encounter.
France's "Le Monde" recently launched an in-depth analysis, warning that if Trump returns to the White House in 2024, NATO may face severe challenges. His argument focuses on Trump's isolationist approach to diplomacy, which suggests that the United States may be more self-isolating and less involved in international affairs.
The article worries that such a policy will shake the close cooperation of NATO member states and may even lead to the collapse of the "NATO-style" alliance structure in the Asia-Pacific region. The future is worrying.
With reservations, France**'s analysis does get to the heart of the matter: Trump's insular tendencies are clear and outspoken. His tenure has witnessed tensions between the United States and its allies, stemming from his insistence on prioritizing American interests, as reflected in a tough stance in the allocation of military spending and cooperation, demanding compromises from allies.
Mr. Trump has shocked the Western world by publicly criticizing allies who have not fully assumed their defense responsibilities and even hinting that they may abandon their defense obligations. In the face of the storm, Biden quickly stepped up and reaffirmed the United States' commitment to NATO allies, trying to calm the unease caused by Trump's remarks.
Over the years, the world has developed a deep understanding of Trump's maverick behavior. As France** has said, if he comes to power, NATO partners will face a severe test. Trump's style is likely to reignite the cost-sharing controversy and make allies pay more, which will undoubtedly erode America's relationship with allies.
His tendency is to reduce aid to allies, whether in Europe, Ukraine, or partners in the Asia-Pacific region, which could be his target. It is foreseeable that Biden ** built it in the Asia-Pacific region"Small NATO"system, which could face a serious shock from Trump's return"Asia-Pacific NATO"'s dream may come to naught, and it is by no means alarmist.
Many hope that Trump's isolationism will weaken America's allies and thus reduce pressure on China, but this view is too narrow. It is true that Trump has a tendency to be diplomatically isolating, but his policies of economic conservatism have been a global disaster.
It is reported that he may impose import taxes of up to 10%, and even tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products. If this is the case, the global system will face a severe test, and China may face an escalation contest that surpasses the previous war.
Therefore, Trump's inauguration is not only beneficial to China, but also his potential storm in the economic and trade field will bring great distress to the world, and all parties, including China, will be deeply affected.
To put it another way: no matter how much Trump's diplomatic leanings tend to be isolated, the strategic consensus of the United States on countering China's rise is like a rock that cannot be ignored by any.
It is undoubtedly unrealistic to expect that Trump will reduce the pressure on China in the political and military fields. In fact, the United States' continued attention to China and its containment strategy do not seem to be affected by the change of the first candidate, and its essence will remain stable.
In the final analysis, the U.S. continues to be critical of China"High-intensity competition"It is deeply rooted in the high-level strategy, and this situation is likely to not change much for a long time to come.
No matter how the candidate changes, the United States will not waver in its hostile and confrontational attitude toward China. In fact, it is Western politicians who are directly affected by the impact of Trump's policies, especially the political and economic fluctuations.
France's concern is understandable, but we need not be overly concerned, after all, this is not an issue that China should focus on.