What happened to C939? And what's wrong with China's economy?
Yu Zhongning, Zhao Yu.
China Youth Daily's report on large aircraft is an old article from 2017 (China Youth Daily: China's large aircraft localization rate has moved from 60% to 100%), and it has been nearly 7 years, but it is still worth reading. First of all, it doesn't come from self-leading nonsense, taking conjecture as reality. Second, it discloses the difficult development process of the C919. Now there are many people complaining that C919 is not a national product, and there are both haters of the National Party and a patriotic party. In fact, seeking truth from facts is the most important, and COMAC's rigorous attitude is the most commendable. Thirdly, it was revealed that the C939 has been developed on the road, but there are no details. The C929 is already dual-channel, so the C939 is likely to be a big guy like the 747.
In the past 7 years, the research and development of large aircraft has been impermeable, where has it been carried out? **There is no reliable news on it. This is just like the answer given by the political commissar of the Navy at today's two sessions on whether the fourth aircraft carrier is nuclear-powered or not will be announced soon. Until then, all information about the 4th and 5th aircraft carriers was a guess. On the one hand, it makes people anxious and amuses you, and on the other hand, it also shows that the potential of China's economy is really not known by ordinary people, including those so-called experts, who also belong to the guys who are teased by you.
China's Westernized intellectuals, represented by economists, have made a lot of noise about what is going on in China's economic situation. Their main point of view is that cracking down on illegal real estate developers, cracking down on illegal financial companies, and restricting the development of Internet finance is to crack down on private enterprises and make private capitalists lack confidence. This statement can be described as a kind of bastard logic.
In China, Chinese Westernized intellectuals, represented by economists, are engaged in American-style political correctness. In the name of freedom of speech, this kind of political correctness is actually a blow to freedom of speech, such as scientific analysis of private enterprises, and criticism of private enterprises that are reasonable and factual.
The logo of private enterprises does not have such a title in foreign countries, and this title is very unscientific, because from the perspective of ownership, the so-called private enterprises also have a variety of ownership, including individual ownership, family ownership, partnership, the so-called joint-stock system, and listed companies. Listed companies are known as public companies or public companies in foreign countries. From a legal point of view, there are companies that comply with laws and regulations, and there are companies that violate laws and regulations.
From a regulatory point of view, there are only two types of companies, those that comply with laws and regulations, and those that violate laws and regulations, regardless of the form of ownership of such companies. Chinese economists only talk about private enterprises, but in fact they are trying to blur the line between compliance and lawlessness. On the other hand, as we have said in other articles, China's economic laws, regulations and regulatory regulations are far behind those of developed countries, and China needs to learn and introduce the laws, regulations, and regulatory regulations of the United States and Europe as soon as possible, establish an economic and financial legal system as soon as possible, and gradually form a credit system on this basis. An economic system with little or no credit is either ignorant or shameless.
Only by establishing a legal, compliant, and trustworthy economic and financial system can we truly build economic confidence, otherwise the confidence that economists call is nothing more than a speculative confidence, a lawless confidence, and a confidence in wanton corruption and bribery. It is necessary to use strong measures to defeat this negative confidence. As the old saying goes, listen to Lala's cooing, and don't grow crops anymore?
So the first problem of China's economy is not an economic problem, but a legal problem. Those who talk about the economy without the law are ignorant and shameless. Only on this basis can we talk about the issue of China's economy itself.
ActuallyChina's economy is neither a problem of a so-called lack of confidence, nor a problem of lack of money. It's not that investors don't have money, but they don't know what to invest in. It's not that consumers don't have money, but they don't know what to buy. Real estate has left them in debt, financial chaos has left them with no home, and the gorgeous skirt of the Internet has been lifted and exposed.
On the other hand, 7-nanometer chips have broken through, batteries, electric vehicles and new energy have become the world's first, the shipbuilding industry has become the hegemon, and large aircraft are on the way.
There are bad parts of the Chinese economy and good parts. Generally speaking, the problems of China's economy are not macro, but meso, and industrial. The main reason is that the long-term supervision is not in place, especially the policy connivance with barbaric growth, and even the mass movement, resulting in the formation of a huge bubble in the three major industries of real estate, finance and the Internet.
China's current economic situation is very similar to the brutal growth of the United States from 1900 to 1929, due to the continuous expansion of the bubble of American indulgence, which eventually led to the Great Depression. If China's three major bubbles are not burst, there is no doubt that the final result will be the Great Depression.
Is the economic situation created by the huge bubble healthy or unhealthy? Is it healthy to take the initiative to burst the bubble, which will bring temporary difficulties but lay a solid foundation for future development, or is it healthy to allow the bubble to accumulate and eventually lead to economic depression and political turmoil? It's a simple matter of common sense, and Chinese economists tend to favor the former, and although there is a part of ignorance, it is mainly shameless. Their political motives dictate their judgment, and they try to achieve their political claims by kidnapping the Chinese economy and the Chinese people.
But at the same time, we don't think China's economic policies are comprehensive. China's so-called new quality productivity is growing, and it cannot replace the three major bubble industries. The so-called new quality productive forces are all import-substituting high-tech industries, but this formulation is one-sided, because it is not examined from the demand side.
In fact, what is the needs of the people is very clear, where in China now there are the most people queuing up and the people have the greatest opinions? Is China's food safe? China is the world's largest garment producer, but so far China's garment number is not uniform. There are many problems in China's clothing, food, housing and transportation, as well as problems in China's medical education.
The most important thing is to put into practice serving the people, not just shouting slogans. When serving the people is implemented, the economy will go up, don't need those *** all day long.
When we have time, we will write a few articles, starting with the analysis of the Great Depression and the New Deal in the United States, a comparative analysis of the Chinese economy and the American economy at that time, and talk about the future path of China's economy based on our research in the United States in the past one or two years.