From the 2024 ** work report condensed version, we seem to smell a different "taste" from the past, there is no "flood irrigation" expected by the public, and there is no expected window for releasing RRR and interest rate cuts, for the real estate sector that everyone is generally concerned about, in addition to not mentioning the term "effectively preventing and resolving the risks of high-quality head real estate enterprises" as in 2023, the rest is only to continue to "meet the rigid housing needs of residents and diversify the housing needs".
To a certain extent, 2024 should belong to the year of "structural reform", on the one hand, the local government will continue to complete deleveraging, on the other hand, the right to "increase leverage" moderately, and the power of reform will be further withdrawn from the local government, and various system reforms and economic reforms will be formulated in a unified manner, but the first thing is still "unified thinking", not only the unified thinking from top to bottom, this unified thinking has even been put into the future economic process, all areas related to structural reform, Now it is basically classified into a unified layout.
The "import and export option" that has been abandoned in stages fully shows that ** has realized that the external environment in the future is no longer the situation of ten years ago, and the current China and the United States can neither fully decouple nor fully link, as the contribution of imports and exports in GDP growth is becoming more and more marginal, 0Export growth rate of about 6%, -0The 3% import growth rate undoubtedly illustrates the severity of the problem, in the next 5 to 10 years, we almost don't have to consider that the European and American markets will open a warm embrace to China as always, the Belt and Road is both an established strategy and a long-term strategy, and now geopolitics is still fermenting, I am afraid that in the short term, the "Palestinian-Israeli conflict" and the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict" have not yet eased, so that our "long-term strategy" is still in the strategic layout stage.
Therefore, the core of the current policy is to fully launch the "internal circulation" to promote China's economic structural reform. The "reduction of major pollutant emissions" target and the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP disappeared in the simplified version of the ** work report continued to decline to 2About 5%, which is about 3% compared to a few years ago is already a great "self-lowering standard", in Europe and the United States in the stage of green emission reduction and low-carbon economy "reverse" now, in 2023 new energy vehicle domestic sales began to "turn around" under the premise that the "new energy strategy" we proposed will become the focus of our big power game, these seem to be worth thinking about, the expansion of new energy and the upcoming "power panic", if the international stage is lost under the excess capacity, Next, we can only find the future from the "new countryside", just like the household appliances that went to the countryside and traded in the old for the new, and its actual and effective results still need to be tested in the future.
When the primary goal of 2024 is to "vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system" replaces the "focus on expanding domestic demand" in the 2023 report, we think about whether we have completed the goal in 2023 or not, and have not achieved the current premise in 2023, we will adjust the structure to "accelerate the development of new quality productivity", and the "supply side" seems to be making a comeback, but the question is where is the market for our new quality productivity, and it seems that this is the root of the problem. It seems that no one cares about this issue now.
It seems that there is no doubt that the 5% GDP growth target will be completed in 2024, and we have already reached the same ** target in 2023, and the key is whether we can reach the 3% inflation target, and the CPI for the whole of 2023 will be 0The difference between a 2% growth rate and a 3% growth target is not a millimeter, but 108,000 miles. Therefore, in the 2024 work report, whether it is the M2 growth target, or the social finance scale growth target, we also see a very large target adjustment, in terms of macro credit, whether it is M2 or social finance, the goal in 2024 has changed from "basically matching the nominal economic growth rate" in 2023 to "consistent with the expected target of economic growth and ** level" in 2024, which shows that the ** willingness to let the entire social credit spread decline by releasing expectations, Further easing of market expectations.
Here I throw out a concept for you to think about, China's nominal GDP growth rate in 2023 is roughly 4Around 7%, while the actual GDP growth rate for the whole of 2023 is 52%, a lower level of inflation has dragged down nominal GDP growth. When the goal of monetary easing is "consistent with the expected target of economic growth and ** level", in fact, if the CPI is to be met, then the monetary policy must be forced, and conversely, if the CPI is not met, the policy expectation of monetary easing will inevitably not be met. A seemingly "word game" exposes the "degree of caution" of monetary easing - on the one hand, it is necessary to release the expectation of monetary easing, on the other hand, it is necessary to hold the "money pocket", which also shows the helplessness of the current **, and some analysts from the brokerage research institute have a good name**From "counter-cyclical adjustment" to "cross-cyclical adjustment", I understand that it may be "look at it while walking, take a step by step".
It may also be said that the size of the fiscal deficit will be increased by 388 trillion to 4. by 202406 trillion, the issuance of special treasury bonds has become a norm for several consecutive years, which seems to indicate that ** is willing to "increase leverage", but the tightening of local debt issuance, as well as the power to lend money more to **, which is enough to show that for **deficit, ** is still an extremely prudent attitude. Special debts are not "casual debts", they must be the product of unified layout and window guidance.
In short, from the 2024 ** report condensed version, we don't seem to see the "newness" we are looking forward to, even if we are wishful thinking to look forward to "AI overtaking", "new energy overtaking", "digital economy overtaking", we must first understand that the global high-speed of the new track has not yet been "opened", how can we "overtake". This is still back to the beginning of 2024, I emphasized when communicating with some friends, China's biggest focus in 2024 is "ideological unification", whether it is governance, or economic development, everything is based on the premise of top-down unity, as for the structural reform mentioned in the work report, I think this is just like our great power strategy, which is both long-term and a "national policy rhythm" that takes a step by step. Therefore, letting go of your body, letting go of your obsession, maintaining unity with ** in your thoughts, and embracing cash flow may be the right attitude we should have in 2024 or even longer! Economy