Text: Fat guy eggplant.
According to the U.S. Defense News Network on March 5, a few days ago, the Thai Air Force released a 74-page *** at its annual seminarIn this ***, the commander of the Thai Air Force, Air Force Admiral Patanakul, drew a huge pie - that is, the Thai Air Force's procurement plan until 2037, which spans 13 years.
In this procurement plan, the Thai Air Force revealed for the first time that the "most urgent projects" for the Thai Air Force to purchase in the future will be new fighter jets, medium-range air defense systems and anti-drone systems. Among them,The procurement of a new batch of fighter jets will be the most urgent task of the Thai Air Force.
This is not surprising, because in the last edition released in 2020, the Thai Air Force admitted that the Thai Air Force has an aging fleet, with an average age of 26 years, and many fighters are in urgent need of replacement. For example, the F-16 fighters of the 102nd Squadron of the Thai Air Force and the F-5E F fighters of the 211th Squadron of the Thai Air Force will all be retired by 2030. This means,The Thai Air Force needs at least three squadrons and a total of 36 new fighter jets in the coming years to fill the "staffing gap" in the Thai Air Force in the future.
Considering that it takes time to place orders, deliver and even train, this makes it necessary for the Thai Air Force to determine the specific models of the new batch of fighter jets to be purchased within at least two years, and many countries are "eyeing this order". It is reported thatThe United States is already actively marketing the latest F-16 Block70 72 fighter jet to Thailand, while Sweden's Saab is aggressively promoting its JAS 39 Gripen fighter.
The United States** notedConsidering the close relations between China and Thailand in recent years, it is also possible that Thailand will consider Chinese J-10CE fightersHowever, Australian scholars interviewed by the US media are "resolutely opposed" to this.
Australian military expert Raymond said that the Thai Air Force attaches great importance to the cooperative relationship with the United States and other "like-minded allies", and the cooperative relationship between the United States and Thailand in the field of security has been "basically finalized."Even if the Thai side has explicitly rejected the F-35 fighter jets promoted by the United States, it is impossible to purchase J-10CE fightersBecause "this could undermine U.S.-Thai cooperation and put Thailand on the periphery of the U.S. 'coterie' and put it in an awkward position." In other words, Thailand "does not dare to buy Chinese fighters at the risk of offending the United States."
But Eggplant argues that the reality of the U.S.-Thai relationship is not as "unbreakable" as Raymond suggests.
While the current U.S.-Thai defense partnership remains "very strong," especially after the U.S. upgraded Thailand to a "major non-NATO ally" in 2003. However,Since 2014, there has been a clear rift in the U.S.-Thai relationship: the U.S. unilaterally scaled back the size of the U.S.-Thai joint military exercises and suspended military aid to Thailand, leading to a marked downgrade in defense relations between the two countries.
Unlike the United States, the defense cooperation between China and Thailand is developing positively. The Peace Research Institute statistics show thatFrom 2016 to 2022, the total price of equipment purchased by Thailand from the United States has dropped to about 200 million US dollars, while the total price of ** equipment purchased from China has reached nearly 400 million US dollars, specifically, including a large number of advanced equipment such as VT-4 main battle tanks, S-26T conventional submarines, and Type 071T dock landing ships.
In addition, Thailand and China are increasing in the number and scale of bilateral joint military exercises. In 2017, China and Thailand had only one joint military exercise program; By 2023, the number of bilateral joint military exercises has increased to three, covering three operational areas: land, sea and air. The U.S. side's repeated interference in Sino-Thai cooperation and preventing the Thai ** team from contacting the Chinese ** team also made the Thai ** side very dissatisfied with ......
It can be said that although the current defense relations between China and Thailand may not have a long history as the cooperation between the United States and Thailand, the Thai side's intention to cooperate with China and purchase Chinese equipment is very activeIt is entirely possible that the Thai side will purchase J-10CE fighters。And in the long run, maybe in the short term, the United States still has a strong security influence over Thailand, but with the rise of China as well as ASEAN,China is likely to replace the United States as Thailand's number one security partner in the future. Perhaps at that time, those experts in the United States and the West will admit that China has indeed risen in Southeast Asia.