In 2014, Alibaba landed on the New York Stock Exchange, and at that time, Jack Ma was talking and laughing, and domestic platform-based enterprises also took the express train of mobile Internet.
In contrast, coal and infrastructure at that time, which were fully overdrawn in the last round of prosperity + valuation, were suffering from serious overcapacity.
Standing at that time, regardless of everyone's bold imagination of Alipay's subversion of traditional finance, it was simply grassroots optimism about the future of the Internet, 9999% of investors will inevitably choose Alibaba, not the traditional industry behind China's Shenhua.
It is hard to imagine that in less than 10 years, the stock prices of the two will have such a "refreshing" change.
From the perspective of the rearview mirror, the most valuable thing about this picture is that ——
How good is what we think is a good company?
How deep can we go in what we think is in-depth research?
Time has passed
Looking back at the history of the prosperity and decline of the Internet in China, I am always quite emotional.
The NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index on February 16, 2021 and the Hang Seng Tech Index on February 17, 2021 saw a historical peak.
Time has passed.
From the high point in 2021 to the present, the Hengke Index is the most**73%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon is the highest**77%, and the decline of the Nasdaq bubble in the millennium is just this result.
Since it is a bubble, there will be a clear and a new life.
As of February 29 this year, the market value of a number of representative Chinese concept stocks listed in the U.S. and Hong Kong stocks from the historical highs of the entire sector on February 16 and February 17, 2021 has been repaired as follows
Li Auto, Ctrip, and Tongcheng Travel have taken the lead in breaking through the high point of market value that year, and New Oriental (Oriental Selection) has been reborn first and adjusted significantly, and the market value during the high point of the plate in 2021 is considered to be nothing to gain or lose, and NetEase is one step away from the new high.
The traditional Chinese three giants - Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, still have a long way to go to return to their roots. Never mind.
Whether it's a new high or an ankle cut, it's all a thing of the past, and for investors, the lessons learned every time the bubble bursts are similar.
Valuations are too high, too optimistic, too aggressive.
We say that investors with low valuations are most likely contrarians, but contrarian investors may not make money by buying more and more falling.
Looking back on those years, what did we get in exchange for the best Hengke?
When everyone chooses **, is that the bottom?
When the word "China Concept Internet" is no longer a "traffic password", will the current China Concept Stocks be a real opportunity?
When the performance of the constituent stocks continues to diverge, how high is the investment value of the entire index?
A positive case for the valuation repair of Chinese concept stocks
At present, the great power game and anti-monopoly risks that have plagued us in the past two years should have pressed the pause button.
The future stock price performance of Chinese concept stocks depends on the ability of the bosses and employees themselves, and the key to determining the stock price has long become growth and shareholder returns.
A few years ago, Alibaba released its financial report for Q3 of fiscal year 2024.
Judging from Alibaba's action of daring to issue a financial report the day before Chinese New Year's Eve, it should be satisfied with this report, although there is nothing to expect from growth, but the new $25 billion buyback plan (by 2027) is quite generous.
If you count the $10.3 billion promised to buy back by March 2025 last quarter, corresponding to the current market value of $188.3 billion, then Alibaba's buyback rate in a year is about 5Around 5%, this repurchase level is definitely OK to compare A-shares with 1-year medium bonds, and it may be able to enter the dividend theme to rise a wave of stock prices.
However, in the market environment of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, the attractiveness is indeed not enough, after all, the current yield on one-year U.S. bonds is 50%, there is no risk of loss, it depends on whether it can be normalized in the future repurchase + dividends.
The current Internet companies of Alibaba (as representatives) are somewhat similar to the 5% coupon but fluctuating plus convertible bonds, and the offensive depends on the repair of each company's performance, while the defensive comes from dividends and repurchase amounts, of course, the latter is done well, and defense can also be used as an offense.
The positive cases, of course, are those who have reached new highs and are about to reach new highs - NetEase, Ideal, Vipshop, and Ctrip.
Let's talk about tourism first, benefiting from the activity of various Internet celebrity cities, the performance of Ctrip and Tongcheng is very explosive, so the stock price has reached a new high.
Speaking of NetEase, NetEase is the most uninvolved among the head manufacturers, focusing on games made him not very popular in the secondary market before 2020, but now "do not advocate involution, focus on their own tracks", NetEase's stock price quietly walked out.
NetEase's compound price has increased by 18% from 2021 to the present, can you believe it? Even if he was beaten by the Copyright Department on December 23 last year and fell by 20%, he is now about to regain his lost ground.
If you put that Friday, which can be called the horror of the gaming industry, into a longer dimensional change, it doesn't seem so scary.
Then look at Vipshop, which earned 9.5 billion yuan and 1.3 billion US dollars last year, and spent about 500 million US dollars on buybacks for the whole year, and will soon distribute 2A $500 million dividend, a growth rate of 5%-10%, generous shareholder feedback, a standard good company, and a good stock price performance.
Since 2021**, Vipshop has been in a row since 2022, although it is still far from the high, but the bottom has also risen more than 3 times.
These are all positive cases of focusing on their own track and attaching importance to shareholder returns, and they are the first expressions of Chinese concept stocks to return from dreams to reality, and I think more and more Chinese concept stocks will come out of a similar model in the future.
Unlike the previous Chinese concept stocks, Li Auto is one of the few Chinese concept stocks that can still be valued by growth stocks.
Net profit in 2023 is 118100 million yuan, a reversal of the past 5 years of losses, it doesn't matter if you burn money in front, once you start to make your own blood, the losses in front can be earned back, what a sign and pure technology stock investment logic.
It's just that there are still too few companies that can go from losses to profits, and companies that can keep profits without falling behind.
On Friday, the ideal released a 560,000 priced mega, the appearance of the "sense of technology" has set off a big discussion on the Internet, I don't know if it meets Li Xiang's expectations, but the stock price in the secondary market, it seems that it is not very recognized, the US stock market **5% that night, and the Hong Kong stock ideal car also fell 11 points today.
The future of Chinese concept stocks
Many professional investors made a judgment in 2021 that Internet companies will lose their future growth and can only be valued by utility stocks.
But at this moment, we also realize that high growth does not necessarily equal good shareholder returns, and what if dividends and buybacks are generous, even if it is a utility stock?
Growth stocks are always the direction that the market is chasing; But in fact, growth stocks that can continue to deliver on expectations will always be scarce.
Previously, we simply attributed the stock price to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, foreign capital sell-off, and liquidity discount, which is actually the logic of the denominator end, ignoring the problems of the numerator company itself to a certain extent.
Now that the mood has calmed down, at least the attitude of U.S. stocks towards Chinese concept stocks is very clear, if the financial performance really exceeds expectations, then the stock price will rise sharply; If there are no surprises in the performance, it is of course okay to pay generous dividends and give back to shareholders; If the performance does not improve, and all kinds of money are raised, then you are not negotiable.
This kind of clear attitude of love and hate is very worthy of our reference.
PS: A** field fluctuations repeatedly, financial planners also need to adapt to this change in valuation logic, the market performance is good, you can make money without getting an investment advisor, but when the market as a whole has experienced violent fluctuations, the industry is also thinking about what it can bring to investors, whether it is investment advice or emotional value, in the domestic investment market is a thing worth excavating.
This month, the "All the Way Together, Excellence Class" activity of Huaxia **x Leek Circle came as scheduled.
On March 14th, we positioned the coordinates of the first excellent class in Shanghai, and we should also go to Nanjing, Xi'an and other places to meet with you later, so don't worry if you are not in Shanghai.
The theme of this excellent class is "After the waves, how should investment advisors make money for customers", and as before, the number of places is still 30.
From March 4th (that is, today) to March 6th, the call for financial planners will begin, so those in need should sign up as soon as possible!
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