Ideal car Ideal has become a reality?

Mondo Cars Updated on 2024-03-03

On the evening of February 26, Li Auto (02015, li.US) CEO Li Xiang said at the financial report meeting that Li Auto "has no plan to launch models below 200,000 yuan in five years". According to Zhitong Financial APP, since last year, the domestic new energy vehicle market has continued to blow out new products, and the first battle has also been fully launched, and the price of many medium and large electric vehicles has been lowered to less than 200,000 yuan, and the war situation can be described as quite tragic. In the current market environment of the main penetration rate and the best war, the reason why Li Xiang dares to "boast about Haikou" shows that the management believes that Li Auto has gone through the mid-to-high-end route of domestic new energy vehicles, and the latest disclosure of the 2023 annual report is proof. According to the financial report on the revenue of 100 billion yuan in the traditional BBA market, the annual delivery volume of the three models of the L series of Li Auto in 2023 will increase by 182 year-on-year2%, up to 37600,000 units. The increase in vehicle deliveries has led to the rapid growth of the company's vehicle sales revenue. In the fourth quarter of last year, a number of Li Auto's financial indicators hit record highs. During the reporting period, the company's revenue increased by 136 year-on-year4% to 417300 million yuan, the annual revenue increased by 173 percent year-on-year5% to 1238500 million yuan. At the same time, the company's gross profit margin reached 235%。And in the full year of 2023, the company achieved vehicle sales revenue of 12029.5 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 172 percent year-on-year7%;The gross profit margin of vehicles was 215%, an increase of 2 year-on-year4 percentage points; Total income 12385.1 billion yuan, an increase of 173 percent year-on-year5%;Gross profit 2749.7 billion yuan, an increase of 212 year-on-year8%;Net profit 1180.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year turnaround.

Taking the financial report data of domestic automakers in 2022 as an example, there are only six domestically listed vehicle companies with annual revenues of more than 100 billion yuan, namely SAIC, BYD, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile and Guangzhou Automobile Group. Among them, the only companies with a net profit of more than 10 billion yuan are SAIC and BYD. In other words, in 2023, Li Auto will become the third domestic car company with a net profit of more than 10 billion. It is worth mentioning that the ideal to achieve 100 billion revenue and 10 billion profits does not rely on "volume" but on the average transaction price of 370,000 yuan. This has obviously entered the hinterland of traditional mid-to-high-end fuel vehicles represented by BBA. At present, the three products launched by Li Auto are all more than 300,000 yuan, and they are extended-range hybrid products, including the full-size ideal L9 located in the ** range of 400,000-500,000 yuan, and the ideal L8 and ideal L7 in the ** range of 300,000-400,000 yuan. According to the plan, in the second quarter of this year, Ideal will launch the fourth product of the L series, L6, which is a medium-sized SUV, priced in the range of 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan, which is the lowest priced product in the current L series products, and competitors include Model Y, BMW ix3, X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC, Audi Q5, etc. Taking the sales performance of BBA in 2023 may be able to reflect the highlights of Li Auto in 2023. According to Zhitong Financial APP, in 2023, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi will deliver 7650,000 units, 8250,000 units, 7290,000 units. The overall sales volume of the three BBAs increased compared to the same period in 2022**. However, from the perspective of vehicle prices, from 2021 to 2023, the average transaction price of the three BBA vehicles has dropped three times in a row. Taking the fuel vehicle BMW 3 Series as an example, the transaction price of the 3 Series in 2022 will be concentrated at 30-350,000 yuan, and the sales volume of this ** band will be as high as 1510,000 units. However, in 2023, the BMW 3 Series will only sell 150,000 units, about 13Sales of 20,000 units have dropped to the range of 250,000 to 300,000 yuan. In the new energy field where BBA is weak, the official guide price of BMW i3 is 35-410,000 yuan, but the naked car ** in Shanghai is only 24-280,000 yuan, which is not as good as the ideal L8 model at the same price.

Although the shock of the ideal market impact on BBA to consumers is far less than the "798 Qinwang Sweeping Liuhe" action launched by BYD's integration of the ** chain to the domestic joint venture brand, under the performance verification, the secondary market is still quite recognized by the ideal mid-to-high-end route. Zhitong Financial APP observed that after the disclosure of the annual report, the share price of Li Auto's U.S. stock closed up 1879% to 41$34, a new high for stock prices this year. On February 27, the Hong Kong stock of Li Auto rose sharply, and the company's stock price opened high after the opening, and the highest increase once reached 2545%, and the stock price also stood at HK$175, which is close to the highest level of stock price since listing. Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, said, "In 2023, when the competition in the new energy vehicle market is fierce, Li Auto has achieved excellent results with the three models of the L series, with a year-on-year increase of 1822%, up to 37600,000 units, becoming the sales champion of new energy vehicles with more than 300,000 yuan in the Chinese market. "For the first quarter of 2024, Li Auto expects that its revenue is expected to be 312500 million 321900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 663%-71.3%;Deliveries are 100,000-1030,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 902%-95.9%。When will it go global? In fact, the revenue of 100 billion yuan and the net profit of 10 billion yuan are just the beginning for Li Auto. If you want to become an automobile giant, it is indispensable to go overseas and gain global market recognition in the future. In 2023, China's vehicle exports will surpass Japan for the first time and jump to the first place in the world, according to the data released by the China National Association, China's automobile exports will be close to 5 million in 2023. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles exceeded 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of more than 77%. But on the B side of this good news, it is the Toyota Group, which is the ace of Japanese automobiles, with 1123With 30,000 units sold worldwide, it will continue to surpass the Volkswagen Group in 2023 and remain the world's largest automaker. According to Toyota's financial report for the first half of fiscal year 2024 (April to September 2023), its revenue was 2198 trillion yen, net profit of 259 trillion yen, a significant increase of 121 year-on-year1%, equivalent to RMB 1296500 million yuan. Referring to Toyota's history and the current volume and "involution trend" of the domestic automobile industry, it is almost the only way for new energy vehicle companies to go overseas if they want to become bigger and stronger. From the perspective of market penetration, according to Marklines data, in October 2023, the penetration rates of new energy vehicles in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States were respectively. 7%, much lower than domestic. However, driven by the long-term planning of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in Europe and the United States, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is an inevitable trend, so there is a large space for development in the overseas new energy vehicle market. According to the previous European auto market research, in the first 11 months of 2023, pure electric models accounted for 16 percent of new car sales in Europe3%, more than diesel models, plus plug-in hybrid models 8With a market share of 1%, the current market share of new energy vehicles in Europe is close to 1 4.

From the perspective of market competition, according to CleanTechnica data, in November 2023 and from January to November, the top two sales of new energy vehicles in Europe are Tesla Model Y and Model 3, of which the total market share of the two in November is 130%, the market share in the first 11 months was 117%, which is an absolute advantage over other models. It can be seen that there is a lack of strong competitors in the European and American markets except Tesla, and the hot-selling models are concentrated in more than 250,000 yuan, and the competitive environment is relatively clear. However, in July last year, Li Xiangzeng, CEO of Li Auto, posted on Weibo, "Li Auto will not do overseas markets before 2025, and will concentrate all resources to achieve the goal of 2025." But at the same time, Li Xiang also said, "In the first two weeks of July, more than 200 vehicles were exported in parallel by private individuals, and after a detailed investigation, it was found that they were mainly exported to Central Asia and the Middle East." Recently, there has also been information in the market that Li Auto will explore the path in the Middle East and North Africa market in 2024. In fact, it would not be surprising if the ideal went to sea ahead of schedule, after all, from 2022, domestic auto exports have accelerated significantly. In the context of gradual involution, the overseas market has also become a new lifesaver for Chinese brand cars. For Ideal, compared with many traditional domestic car companies, the biggest advantage of Ideal Auto is that it can accurately understand the car needs of domestic consumers. However, in the overseas market in the future, it is still unknown whether Ideal can win overseas consumers by relying on extended-range hybrid technology and configuration advantages.

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