Author |Chai Xuchen.
Edit |Zhou Zhiyu.
Li Bin, chairman of NIO, who has always been "idealistic", has become realistic since last year. The price of models and expenses were cut, and the difficulty of building a car made Li Bin bow to the market.
But this is far from enough, NIO must achieve a leap in scale, and 2024 will be its key turning point.
On the evening of March 5, NIO announced its 2023 financial report, with a full year of 556The revenue of 200 million yuan hit a new high, but the loss of nearly 10 billion yuan year-on-year was more conspicuous. 207.200 million yuan, which is a new high for NIO's annual loss; During the period, NIO delivered 160,000 new vehiclesThe average monthly sales of 30,000 are still a little far from the 2-30,000 monthly sales that Li Bin is looking forward to. And for the guidance of this year's Q1, NIO did not come up with surprises.
After the results were released, Goldman Sachs and other investment banks lowered their target prices for NIO, and Xiaomo and others also confided that they were "not optimistic" about NIO.
However, there are still many investors who are willing to trust Li Bin again. After the publication of the financial newspaper on March 5, NIO's U.S. stock fell 86%, and then all the way to the end of the day up 281%, and the rally continued on March 6, continuing to rise by 529%。
This is because Li Bin gave a relatively complete and highly probable plan, and the "Alps" is an important support team for this round of charge.
At NIO's earnings conference on March 5, Li Bin pointed out the sub-brand codenamed "Alps", saying that "the growth of new brands for the mass market is the company's top priority this year." ”
According to his plan, Alps will focus on the home market, with a long-term profit margin target of more than 20%. The first model will directly challenge the "king of pure electric SUVs" Model Y; The second car is positioned in the family SUV market and has entered the mold opening stage, and the third car is also under development.
The 200,000 yuan ** belt where Alps is located is also a track that potential car companies such as Zeekr and Ideal are extremely optimistic about, and they expect that the overall scale of the market segment and the penetration rate of new energy will be further improved this year.
The planning of sub-brands and the potential room for improvement in sales volume allow investors to see the direction of NIO's efforts; Investors also believe that if NIO can "survive" in the knockout round, then its long-term value can also be gradually released. The performance of the "Alps" will become the most direct window for investors to observe the subsequent trend of NIO.
However, the difficulty lies in the fact that the market has now become the most fierce position, how can Li Bin ensure the competitiveness of "Alps", achieve long-term profit margin targets, and avoid competition with the main brand NIO?
In fact, the launch of the sub-brand is the first turning point for NIO to usher in a leap in efficiency and show the role of long-termism to the outside world.
Li Bin pointed out that "Alps" has the advantage of being a latecomer, and it will study the needs of users more deeply. And with the support of the platform architecture previously developed by NIO, "Alps" will no longer have to go through more than the 0-1 process, and the cost will be 10% cheaper than Tesla, which reserves sufficient space for pricing; In addition to establishing separate channels, the sub-brand can partially share the after-sales system and battery swap network with the main brand of NIO.
By stepping on the shoulders of the main brand, Alps can unload its burdens in expensive and laborious processes such as R&D, manufacturing, and energy replenishment, and go straight to the goal of increasing volume.
However, it will take more than half a year for the Alps to take over the baton. Li Bin's plan is to launch the brand in the second quarter, launch the first model in the third quarter, and start large-scale deliveries in the fourth quarter.
Before the arrival of "Alps", Li Bin still had to face the challenges of the market with NIO, coordinate the follow-up multi-brand operations, and improve hematopoietic capabilities.
It is worth mentioning that last year, NIO broke through the 20,000 unit mark in July, focusing on the price adjustment of the whole series in June and the launch of the main force ES6. However, with the intensification of the involution of the domestic auto market and the emergence of a series of models such as ZEEKR and Zhijie, the product power of NIO's products has declined, and the monthly sales of 20,000 have become a "flash in the pan".
This year, NIO no longer plans to launch new models, only a facelift, and the maximum upgrade is Qualcomm 8295 cockpit chip, the expected 800V architecture has not arrived, and the starting price has not changed.
The lack of new models has also become the biggest concern for analysts. One of the reasons JPMorgan Chase analyst Nick Lai downgraded NIO** on Feb. 23 was the company's lack of new products.
In this regard, Li Bin's solution is to promote the NIO brand.
He believes that with the development of AI, the performance of various car companies in intelligence will quickly differentiate, which will be another opportunity for NIO to overtake.
Li Bin confidently said that in the middle of the year, NIO is expected to return to the level of 20,000 units delivered in a single month.
In addition to selling cars, accelerating the opening and cooperation of the battery swap station business has also become the next direction to increase NIO's profits and relieve some of the financial pressure. Li Bin proposed to expand the "circle of friends". Since last year, NIO has pulled Changan, Geely, JAC, Chery and other car companies into its own battery swap circle to jointly build battery swap stations.
NIO told Wall Street that it will cooperate with the above-mentioned car companies in the next step to increase new profit points; At the same time, the cooperative battery swap station will also help NIO accelerate the layout of battery swapping and reduce costs. In addition, at the end of February, NIO also cooperated with China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. to obtain revenue by connecting to the grid to dispatch virtual power plants.
Last year, NIO, which released mobile phones, self-developed chips, laid battery swap stations, obtained independent car manufacturing qualifications, poached BBA sales, and got investment in the Middle East, had a wonderful time. On the other hand, the transformation of reducing edge business, optimizing personnel, and obtaining independent car manufacturing qualifications is also slowly underway.
In the next 2024, there are still many problems waiting for Li Bin to solve, such as the ability replication of the sub-brand, the return of the main brand to the high-end, and how to build a deeper moat in the battery swap business, which will be reflected in the finances.
The dawn of an inflection point has emerged, and NIO is also accumulating strength for a key leap in rebirth.