The Kunpeng plan does not only go up but does not fall! Hello everyone, I'm Shuipi, welcome to the ESG living room, we will talk to you today about "the most important ** on the planet" NVIDIA!
Attention, it is not us who gave Nvidia the title of "the most important ** on the planet", it is the famous Goldman Sachs! Of course, Nvidia also lives up to this title, just some time ago, with a financial report that exceeded expectations, Nvidia's total market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion on February 23, and the stock price stood above the $800 mark, reaching 823 at the peak$94.
Although it fell back at the end of February, the stock price was around $776, and the total market capitalization was still 194 trillion. But you must know that the market capitalization from $1 trillion to $2 trillion took Microsoft two years and six months, Apple took about two years, and Nvidia only took eight months to achieve this milestone jump.
It should be said that no company has broken through so quickly.
If it's not intuitive enough, we can say another statistic, at the beginning of last year, Nvidia's stock price was around $150, and in a little more than a year, the stock price has increased fivefold. No wonder some institutional analysts sighed: "This company is like printing money." ”
Now the question is, is Nvidia expensive for almost $800?
In terms of performance and price-earnings ratio, it is not expensive! According to Nvidia's financial report, last year's full-year revenue was 609$2.2 billion, up 126% year-over-year; Net profit was 297$600 million, up 581% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share were 5At $16, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio based on EPS expectations is about 32x, compared to 45x for rival AMD.
Compare the price-earnings ratio of those listed companies with the concept of A-share rubbing is about 100 times, so as the global GPU computing power leader, NVIDIA, do you say expensive or not?
But in terms of perception and the speed of stock price, it is still expensive! The most obvious example is the day before the earnings report, that is, on February 20, in the absence of obvious bearishness, Nvidia's intraday decline once reached 67%, and finally the decline narrowed a little, and there were also 435%, the reason is that some traders are "afraid of heights" and decide to lock in profits.
After all, avid investors have invested too much money in the derivatives market in recent months.
Nvidia's options trading volume has risen sharply, and traders are rushing to ** Nvidia's call options, which are at a much higher premium than put options. The data shows that most of the open interest is in the range of $1010 1380 call options, which means that Nvidia's stock price could soar by more than 40%.
What does this extreme bullishness and speculation mean by the risk of a gamma squeeze? To put it simply, investors concentrate on short-term call options and promote the underlying options
This is a self-reinforcing behavior that, while can be seen as a catalyst for a bull market, can also trigger volatility under excessive speculation. Because gamma squeeze is more driven by speculation and massive capital inflows, once it peaks, a reversal will soon come, which is what we often call a rush and a rush to disperse.
After all, there is no such thing as a world that only rises and falls, and in the face of such a huge profit, once Nvidia has a stir, it may cause turmoil in the derivatives market, which will affect other financial markets.
Therefore, for Nvidia at present, the biggest risk is not its own profitability, nor its stock price, but the excessive frenzy of the derivatives market.