Abstract:The semiconductor industry is the core of a new generation of information technology and the cornerstone of the modern digital economy
1.Semiconductors are the cornerstone of the digital economy
The semiconductor industry is the core of the new generation of information technology and the cornerstone of the modern digital economy. Semiconductors have a wide range of radiation and a significant role in driving the industry, which is of great significance to the country's economic and social development and scientific and technological progress. In recent years, the global power science and technology game has tightened, especially in terms of key basic technologies, some Western countries have continued to increase China's first weight, especially for integrated circuits, artificial intelligence and other frontier areas of technical restrictions are endless, the real threats and potential risks of chain security and information security are very high. The key core technology is not to come, to buy, or to buy. Only by mastering key and core technologies in our own hands can we fundamentally guarantee national economic security, national defense security, and other security. Therefore, in this field, we must give full play to the advantages of the new first-class system and make breakthroughs one by one.
In recent years, the national policy has been increasing, and the strategic position of the semiconductor industry has become prominent. Each link of the semiconductor industry chain has a certain threshold, which requires continuous capital and talent investment, and policy support is of great significance to the development of the semiconductor industry. At present, the development of China's semiconductor industry focuses on the field of integrated circuits. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a key five years for China's semiconductor industry to lay a solid foundation and seek greater progress, and a number of "14th Five-Year Plan" related policies have included integrated circuits in key development projects, such as the "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035", which specifically lists special projects for the development of integrated circuits;The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Foreign Investment" proposes to guide foreign investment in integrated circuits, which reflects China's determination to vigorously develop integrated circuits.
2.Semiconductor industry chain
The upstream and downstream of the semiconductor industry are closely linked, and all links are indispensable. The upstream of the semiconductor industry chain includes EDA software, IP commissioned and outsourced design services, manufacturing equipment and materialsMidstream includes integrated circuit design, wafer fabrication, and packaging and testThe downstream is terminal system manufacturers, and the main application industries include mobile communications, data centers, automotive electronics, computers and industrial applications.
3.Under the resonance of multiple factors, the semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate into the business cycle
3.1. The semiconductor industry chain is interlocking, and the sanctions imposed by the United States, Japan and the Netherlands promote independence and control
The United States, Japan and the Netherlands jointly issued export control regulations against China, with the strongest sanctions on equipment and chips. Since the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the BIS regulations on October 7, 2022, the United States, Japan and the Netherlands have successively issued export control measures against China, mainly restricting the weak domestic advanced process chips and related manufacturing equipment. Upstream equipment, manufacturing materials, EDA&IP, and other areas with the risk of "stuck" are the basis of chip manufacturing, and China still has to rely on imports from the United States, Japan and the Netherlands. In the current international environment, the above fields have become high-risk links in the first chain, and domestic substitution is becoming more and more urgent.
The self-sufficiency rate of the domestic semiconductor industry chain is low. From the perspective of the regional proportion of the global semiconductor industry chain, the United States, Europe and other countries and regions have the majority share, and the domestic wafer manufacturing and packaging and testing in the middle of the industrial chain only occupy a certain proportion. However, in the upstream EDA&IP, equipment, high-end manufacturing materials and other first-class chain links, it is still unable to meet self-sufficiency, and there is a situation of "being controlled by others".
3.2. The growth attribute of the semiconductor cycle resonates, and the recovery of the semiconductor industry is imminent
Since 2008, the world has experienced a total of 4 rounds of semiconductor industry cycles (2009-2011, 2012-2016, 2016-mid-2019, and mid-2019 to present), and each round of the global semiconductor cycle bottoms out, which often indicates the clearing of the supply side; If a new round of technology industry demand is superimposed, it will often give rise to a large-scale TMT main line**. In addition to the 16-17 years of the global semiconductor industry cycle rebound did not superimpose the new technology industry cycle, the 09, 12 and 19 years of the semiconductor cycle rebound correspond to the domestic smartphone cycle (3G era), mobile Internet cycle (4G era) and ALOT (5G era) respectively. From February to May this year, the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales has remained below -20%, second only to the low point of the Internet bubble in 2000 and the low point of the 2008 financial crisis. Since June, the decline in semiconductor sales has gradually decreased. In the future, if the semiconductor cycle is superimposed with technological innovation, it may enter a new round of upward cycle.
In terms of capacity utilization, the capacity utilization rate of global wafer fabs remained low in 2023H1 and recovered in 20232H2. According to OMDIA data, the global fab capacity utilization rate in 2023Q2 is 753%, and it is expected that 2023Q3 and 2023Q4 will reach 80., respectively6%/84.1%。In 23H1, the capacity utilization rate of global wafer fabs remained at a low level, accelerating the destocking of the industry. After entering 23Q3, the capacity utilization rate of global wafer fabs has recovered, reflecting the strong momentum of downstream replenishment in the industry's seasonality and some high-prosperity segments.
AI will continue to lead the recovery in industry demand. On the one hand, AI will continue to drive the demand for computing power and drive the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to maintain a high degree of prosperity. On the other hand, AI will continue to empower terminal applications, which is expected to drive terminals such as PCs and mobile phones into the product replacement cycle, and key new products such as MR are also expected to contribute to the increase. Finally, AI demand is expected to further drive the recovery of industry inventory digestion and upstream fab capacity utilization, which is expected to drive the recovery of the profitability of the industrial chain.
4.Semiconductor investment logic and combing
The semiconductor industry is the core of the new generation of information technology and the cornerstone of the modern digital economy. At present, the industry is in a resonant boom cycle of domestic substitution, AI innovation, and cyclical recovery.
The industry is expected to start an upcycle in 2024. In the field of consumer electronics, which the semiconductor industry relies on the most, AIGC is expected to begin to move towards edge terminals, AI mobile phones and AI PCs are expected to bring back consumers' attention, and the industry's original replacement cycle has arrived, and sales will improve; On the computing power side, thanks to the substantial growth of intelligent computing power construction, AI servers will continue to grow rapidly. In addition, trends such as intelligent and electrified vehicles will continue, which will provide stable support for the growth of the industry. Related**: GigaDevice, Zhongying Electronics, Shengbang Shares, Weir Shares, Zhuosheng Micro, Yangjie Technology, Silan Micro, New Clean Energy, Wingtech Technology, North Huachuang, Changchuan Technology, Lion Micro, Jiangfeng Electronics.
Reference Material**:
1.2023-9-15Yuanda Information - The inflection point of industry recovery is approaching, and domestic substitution is accelerating.
2.2023-11-16Tianfeng**—Grasp the "hard technology" and share the future development opportunities.
3.2023-3-3Dongguan** - NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations, detonating the demand for computing power.
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