The National Bureau of Statistics released the "2023 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin" on February 29, and after preliminary calculation, the GDP in 2023 will exceed 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 52%。Among them, in 2023, the proportion of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing in the added value of industries above designated size will rise to . 6%, the cultivation of emerging industries has been significantly accelerated. At the same time, in 2023, the expenditure of research and experimental development funds for the whole society will be 33 trillion yuan, the ratio of GDP to 264%, of which the expenditure on basic research increased by 93%, indicating that China's scientific and technological innovation is actively seeking new breakthroughs.
If you focus on the field of robots, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of industrial robots in 2023 will decline slightly, and from January to December, the output of industrial robots in China will be 42950,000 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 22%；The output of service robots is 783330,000 sets, a year-on-year increase of 233%。However, according to the data of the third-party statistical agency Rui Industry, the sales volume of industrial robots in 2023 will be 2830,000 units, a slight increase of 04%。
It is worth mentioning that from the perspective of market sales, the share of domestic robots accounts for 45% of the total market sales1%, compared to 35 in the same period last year3% is an increase of 98%，Among them, the sales volume of the three domestic brands of Eston, Inovance and EFORT ranked among the top 10 in terms of sales, and their market share reached respectively. 3%and speed up the pace of catching up with foreign investment. This also drives the total sales of domestic brand industrial robots to reach 12 in 202380,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28%, much higher than the market growth rate. The sales volume of foreign brand industrial robots is 1550,000 units, down 15% year-on-year. The sales volume of the four major robot families is still in the top, and the share of enterprises is respectively. 0%。
Overall, although the manufacturing industry as a whole will be under pressure in 2023, the demand and expenditure of the downstream manufacturing industry will slow down, coupled with the decrease in overseas orders, the growth rate of domestic robot sales will slow down, butIn the context of competition with sufficient inventory and vigorous competition of foreign brands, domestic brands are still growing against the trendThe localization rate has been further improved, showing the strong resilience of the domestic robot industry, and the market competitiveness of products is gradually reflected. Of course, this also makes the gap between domestic head manufacturers and other manufacturers continue to widen.
Minimum and target differences
Choosing the right track and deepening the process may be one of the key factors for the continuous progress of domestic robot sales in 2023. Analyzing the industry situation, it can be found that in 2023, the guaranteed sales volume of the development of the robot industry will still be concentrated in the five major fields of electronic manufacturing, auto parts, metal products, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, while the main breakthrough targets of some foreign-funded enterprises are lithium batteries, vehicles, household appliances, electronics, and metal products industries, and there is a significant decline.
Specifically, in 2023Electronic manufacturing, auto parts, metal products, lithium batteries, photovoltaic fieldsRobot sales accounted for the proportions of . 2%。Among them, the growth rate of demand for industrial robots in the photovoltaic industry far exceeds that of other industries, and sales will be 2610,000 units, up 90% year-on-year.
The growth rate is mainly due to the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of robots in all aspects of photovoltaic manufacturing, especially domestic robot manufacturers have seized the opportunity of China's photovoltaic industry chainGo to the process site and go deep into the processFor example, some companies such as Eston, EFORT, and ROKAZ are also trying to develop customized models and solutions around each process link, so as to respond to market demand more quickly and achieve substantial sales growth.
Under the demand for expansion of photovoltaic enterprises, new robot application scenarios have been continuously born, such as silicon wafer cleaning, corner protection, junction box installation, loading and unloading fixtures and other subdivided processes have also begun to try to use robots. Domestic robots through the full category strategy,With a small six-axis robot (20kg) product with comprehensive cost-effective advantages, we quickly seized the opportunity, which is also reflected in the overall sales of small six-axis robots in 2023 will be 940,000 units, an increase of 44%。
In addition, thanks to the high growth trend of the new energy vehicle industry and the upgrading of the medical industry, automotive electronics, semiconductors, and medical supplies have grown respectively. 4%。These industries with high spatial capacity density and high degree of flexibility have also driven the growth of collaborative robot branches in the robot segment. MIR data shows that the sales volume of collaborative robots is 240,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 215%。This is mainly due to the continuous release of demand related to industrial markets such as automotive electronics, while the recovery of non-industrial markets such as catering, new retail, health therapy, and electricity has also created considerable market sales.
The sales volume of robots in the lithium battery, vehicle, household appliances, electronics, and metal products industries declined significantly year-on-year, respectively, by -134%、-10.9%、-9.8%、-9.6%、-8.3%。These areas are the key and advantageous areas of foreign brands, especially the large six-axis robot (20kg) and scara robotThe products of foreign brands still have relatively good performance in the continuous operation of the production line. However, due to the intensification of competition in the fields of new energy vehicles, power batteries, and electronics in 2023, the direction of new technologies is not clear, and the demand for expansion of related enterprises has slowed down, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 3% in the sales of large six-axis robots9% only 940,000 units, scara robot sales of 650,000 units, down 42%。
At present, in these two fields, domestic robot manufacturers are also trying to get a piece of the pie and continuously improve the performance of large-load robots. Due to the improvement of the technical strength of RV reducer manufacturers in recent years, such as Ring Robot and other enterprises, more than ten models of precision reducer products will be launched in 2023, and some products will complete the installation test, and the purchase orders for domestic robots received have increased significantly. After taking domestic parts, some models have been more competitive, and domestic enterprises have been improving their own strength, and they are constantly encroaching on the market share of foreign brands.
Opportunities and possibilities
Because the manufacturing industry has a relatively obvious cyclical law, thereforeIndustrial robots belong to the "growth + cycle" resonance industry, and its market sales will closely follow the fluctuations in the demand of various downstream industries. For example, in photovoltaic and other industries, in the face of the uncertainty of the external environment, the plummeting orders on the demand side in Europe has become the main contradiction in the industrial chain. The changes in the cash flow of these different industry types lead to fluctuations in the purchase volume of different models of different models and integrators mentioned above, thus showing structural differences in sales volume.
In 2023,Fanuc still has a strong scene coverage with the advantage of all categoriesThe process performance is also very stable, KUKA has integrated into Midea's rapid localization in China, and its sales have increased by leaps and bounds, especially in the automotive field, KUKA is still more than the choice of orders, Yaskawa's orders in traditional fields such as welding are still stable and continue to increase, and ABB's sales volume has declined significantly due to large internal adjustments, and the budget of many lines has been tightened. In addition, it is worth noting that Epson's market share has come to 55%, some analysts believe that this is mainly due to the sales extension brought by its 3D printing and other related new technology orders.
The domestic robot is mainly due to the steady improvement of the quality level of domestic robots in recent yearsSome downstream manufacturers, especially those in China's emerging industries, have significantly improved their recognition of domestic brandsAt the same time, with the increasing demands of enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the safety of the first chain, the willingness of end customers to adopt domestic brands has begun to increase, and the social recognition has also increased extensively.
In terms of segmented growth, although the macroeconomic environment and downstream capital expenditure are affected by the macroeconomic environment and downstream capital expenditure in the short term, the application coverage continues to fluctuate and increase in general under the general trend of manufacturing upgrading. Several of the major directions that can be identified are closely related to the national strategy. For example, at present, the demand for robots in the field of new energy is relatively certain, especially the demand for vehicles, parts and automotive electronics will continue to be strong; AI empowerment and technological innovations in industries such as VR may lead to a recovery in demand in the consumer electronics industry. Stimulated by the economic recovery and consumption, demand in other industries such as food and beverage, metal processing and semiconductors has shown signs of recovery.
As the rate of automation in the industry and the speed of iteration of new technologies will drive capital expenditures, these industries may be able to make:In 2024, the application demand for medium and large load models will continue to be hotHowever, light load products are facing structural excess demand and involution is intensifying, unless there is an exponential breakthrough in orders in retail and other fields, it is expected to drive the rapid growth of robots below 20kg. It is difficult to support the explosive orders of enterprises in the short term only by relying on the automation increment brought about by the demand for cost reduction in the field of steel structure welding. Because in a single machine instead of 1Under the assumption of 2 times the manual and robot working 2 shifts in a single day, the estimated investment period of robot welding is 238 months. Moreover, the welding process is basically just needed for the teach-free technology, and it will gradually enter the stage of promotion and trial and large-scale scale in 2024-2025.
Another point that needs to be paid attention to by enterprises is that they will find that the production and sales data will be foundAt present, there is a large stock of enterprise robot products on the marketIn 2024, the knockout round of the overall large stock market may have quietly begun.
In general, the industrial robot market after a two-year adjustment period, or into the new long-term, in the domestic substitution, manufacturing high-quality development trend, the long-term trend of good does not change, industrial robots are still in the growth stage of the industry, the next few years is still expected to continue to maintain 8-15% growth.