First, the spot.
In the two weeks after the Spring Festival in China, China has purchased more than 20 ships of corn, sorghum and barley from Ukraine and the United States, with a total purchase of more than 1.2 million tons based on 6 tons per ship. In the first half of this year, 2.5 million tonnes of corn are expected to arrive in Brazil, nearly 2 million tonnes in Ukraine, more than 3 million tonnes of sorghum in the United States, and 1.5 million tonnes of barley in Argentina. As the scale of cereal imports grows, the impact on the domestic corn market has also begun to intensify. The loosening of the intention of grassroots growers in the northeast to sell grain, the arrival of corn in northern ports continues to be high, there are many loading plans, and there are more buyers and strong support. Southern ports last week grain arrivals 4740,000, 71 per week80,000 tons, port inventory continued to decline. Affected by the increase in the purchase volume of the north and the impact of the disk, some feed companies are implementing the pre-contract, but the overall intention to build the warehouse is not high, and the mentality of the first business is weakening. The domestic corn spot ** is basically stable, and the local ** is small**. The progress of corn grain sales for grassroots growers in Northeast China has been 60 percent, Heilongjiang has sold more than 6 percent and a half, Jilin has sold 50 percent, Liaoning has sold nearly 70 percent, and Inner Mongolia has sold more than 50 percent. With the high level of corn, the purchase of merchants is cautious, lack of willingness to continue to push up, with the expected increase in the warming of the weather, the tide grain sales are still active, the pace of grain sales is gradually accelerating, and deep processing enterprises have the demand for rolling. The overall progress of grassroots growers in the Huanghuai production area of North China has passed fifty and a half, of which the progress of grain sales in Hebei is more than forty and a half, the progress of grain sales in Shandong is fifty and a half, the progress of grain sales in Henan is more than sixty and a half, and the progress of grain sales in Shanxi is eighty percent. The progress of grain sales is slow year-on-year, due to the warming temperature, the sentiment of growers to sell grain is high, the pace of local corn purchase and sales is accelerating, the confidence of business construction has not recovered for the time being, and the arrival volume of corn deep processing enterprises in front of the door remains high, and the volume continues to be weak.
Second, the first aspect.
On March 4, 2024, the CBOT-May corn contract closed 525 cents at 430 cents bushel. Due to the active short-covering.
On March 5, 2024, the opening price of the main corn ** contract C2405 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) was 2440 yuan, the ** price was 2444 yuan, up 2 yuan, the highest ** 2451 yuan, the lowest price was 2432 yuan, and the settlement price was 2440 yuan, with a total trading volume of 365499 lots and 923982 positions.
Third, focus on hot spots in the later stage.
Weather changes, procurement mentality, feed mill strategy, domestic policy, international and domestic corn market, purchase of production areas, imported corn to Hong Kong, disease flow, livestock and poultry products, changes in international freight, international economic situation, wheat changes, feed demand, weather impact on corn, etc.
Fourth, related news.
1. Private exporters reported selling 110,000 tons of corn to Taiwan Province of China for delivery in 2023-24, according to a one-day export sales report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
2. Iran's state-owned feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase as many as 180,000 tons of feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soybean meal.
3. U.S. corn export inspections were 1,083,503 tons in the week ended Feb. 29, 2024, compared to 1,289,093 tons last week and 944,803 tons in the same period last year.
4. As of Feb. 29, corn distiller's grains (DDGS)** averaged $195 tons in 34 U.S. regions, up from $1 a week ago. During the same period, the average spot price index of U.S. corn was 13 cents bushels higher than a week ago.
5. In the two weeks after the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers have bought more than 20 ships of feed grains from the international market, and purchased corn, sorghum and barley from countries such as Ukraine and the United States. At 60,000 tons per ship, the total purchase volume exceeded 1.2 million tons.
6. As of February 29, the corn harvested area in Ukraine in 2023 was 3.72 million hectares, equivalent to 92% of the planned harvested area, the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine said.
7. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, as of March 46, 2023 24 (which began in July), the volume of Ukrainian grain exports was 299510,000 tons, up from 2,857 a week ago90,000 tons, compared with 3,293 in the same period last year80,000 tons, a decrease of 3 million tons or 91%。As a comparison, the export volume a week ago (as of the 26th) was down 10. year-on-year1%。
8. As the Houthis have vowed to crack down on American, British, and Israeli ships passing through the Red Sea route, grain ships in the Black Sea or bound for Iran are currently the only grain ships still sailing in the Red Sea.
9. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture issued a notice that from March 6 to 12, 2024, the corn benchmark ** is 185 per ton6 dollars, the export duty is 8852 rubles ton; The previous week's benchmark** was 1852 dollars, the export duty is 8289 rubles Tons.
10. As of March 1, Brazil's 2023 24 first corn harvest area reached the expected area of 39742. of 20,000 hectares2%, up from 35 a week ago1%。
11. As of February 29, Brazil's first-season corn harvest progress reached 49%, compared with 42% a week ago and 37% in the same period last year, according to the Brazilian consulting agency Agrural.
12. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called on the EU on the 4th local time to impose "comprehensive" sanctions on food and agricultural products imported from Russia and Belarus in response to the agricultural market across the EU
13. On March 5, China Grain Storage Network Shandong Branch Corn Bidding Procurement Results: 8,300 tons of corn were planned to be purchased, and 8,300 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 100%.
14. On March 4, the corn auction sales results of the Jilin Branch of China Grain Reserves: 24,206 tons of corn were planned to be sold, and 24,206 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 100%.
15. On March 4, China Grain Storage Network Shanxi Branch corn auction sales results: 1,255 tons of corn were planned to be sold, and 1,255 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 100%.
16. On March 5, China Grain Storage Network Beijing Branch Corn Bidding Procurement Results: 3,000 tons of corn were planned to be purchased, and all of them were unsold.
Fifth, the market outlook analysis.
In March, China's corn ** is still sufficient overall, as the temperature gradually rises, corn storage conditions will gradually deteriorate, superimposed on the willingness of farmers to start up the capital demand for spring ploughing, the willingness to cash out, and the enthusiasm for corn sales will gradually increase. Although the demand side has recovered compared with February, it is still at a low level overall, and the support for corn is still weak, so we predict that corn will continue to be at a low level in the first half of March, although there will be a short period of time, and the probability of moderate bullishness will increase after late March. However, throughout the year, due to the large increase in the import of substitute raw materials, the pressure on corn in 2024 is huge, and the probability of corn year-on-year is extremely high.
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