"ASML canceled the export of 7nm lithography machine, netizens' opinion: last year's procurement was sufficient, and the impact was not great"！
Some time ago, it was reported that the Netherlands decided to revoke the license of some of ASML's export products to China due to concerns that ASML's wafer production facilities could be used for military purposes.
As far as we know, ASML has different process parameters for EUV lithography, ARFI lithography, ARF lithography and KRF lithography.
In particular, sub-7nm EUV lithography machines have never been sold in China. In addition, ARF's 45-7nm immersion lithography machine is no longer available in the Chinese market, which means that NXT:2000 I and above wafers can no longer be sold abroad, and can only sell low-end products such as 1970 I and 1980 I.
The cancellation of the export license for a batch of lithography machines mainly concerned the intermediate models of the ARF series, the NXT:70 I of the 20th century, and the immersion lithography machine for the 7nm process.
The Netherlands** also noted that only a handful of core factories in Chinese mainland do not have the capacity to produce NXT 1970 I and 1980 I penetrating cores.
As for the companies on the U.S. Entity List, I don't think you will buy them either, you should be well aware of that.
But some people say it's okay because we bought a lot last year, enough for the next few years.
Last year, ASML announced that by January 1, 2024, both high-lithography and low-lithography machines in China will be available to any user.
As a result, Chinese companies bought lithography machines from ASML last year, and Chinese mainland's share of sales increased from 14% in 2022 to 29% in 2023, accounting for almost a third.
In 2023, ASML's sales will reach around 30 billion yuan, of which about 9 billion yuan or R$60 billion will account for 29%, more than tripling compared to 2022.
ASML announced that it will ship all lithography machines to China by 2023 in order to sell as many as possible before the ban takes effect, as these products may be restricted in the coming days.
In this case, Feng Yu can**, these 60 billion orders are enough to maintain production for the next few years or even three years, and there will be no major problems.
Therefore, ASML's withdrawal of the license for some of its lithography machines will not have a significant impact on us, as we have amassed enough reserves to last for several years.
A few years from now? There's still a long way to go before that. There are still many uncertainties ahead. We may have developed ultraviolet lithography. What else is there to worry about?