Overall trends
I took a preventive shot last Tuesday, don't be afraid of a sharp fall, and the explosive yin line on Wednesday is indeed a bit scary, but even this kind of big black line can be reversed, which proves that the current market is very strong.
A while ago**, micro-cap stocks were the absolute leader. After the long black candle, the market preference has changed significantly, small-cap stocks have begun to stagnate, the Chinese ** stocks have strengthened, and the CSI 500 pattern is significantly stronger than the CSI 2000.
Stimulated by the semiconductor essay on Thursday, coupled with the continuous rise of overseas technology giants, some indices in the technology industry have completely reversed the big black line today and walked out of a new high.
After the market entered the stage of differentiation, funds gradually focused. The main direction is still high dividends and artificial intelligence, but coal is starting to be stronger than banks, and technology hardware such as chips and semiconductors is starting to be stronger than software.
In terms of market sentiment, due to the gathering of a large number of profit-taking orders in the direction of small-cap stocks, there are often intraday high-open and low-moving long black candles in the near future, coupled with the crowding out effect of the strengthening of ** stocks, there is still a short-term demand for adjustment.
After the long black candle, the index has changed from the main rise to the first structure, and it is important to focus on the main line and pay attention to the trading rhythm. If the direction is not right, it is easy to make index and not make money.
1.1 Performance of the Global Scale Index
Last week, the world was still rising, and the most resilient science and technology 50 climbed to the top of the list again with the attribute of "technology scumbag".
For semiconductor small essays, it is recommended not to over-interpret, short-term technology hardware strength is biased towards a kind of supplemental rise, if there is no new news stimulation in the follow-up, it is easy to appear at a high level of large amplitude.
The Hang Seng Index is not only at the bottom, but also closed down, and now Hong Kong stocks do feel a little marginalized.
The rest of the U.S. stocks and Nikkei are all in an independent rhythm and are still in a benign upward trend.
1.2 Greed Fear Index
The Fear of Corruption Index has risen to 74 with the Index**9. Enter the greedy zone. Needless to say, it's time to stabilize this position.
After the index enters the ** range, it is unlikely to be shorted, pay attention to the trading rhythm, and don't take other people's selling points as buying points.
1.3 Equity and bond price-performance ratio
The risk premium fell back to 367%, but still in the extremely low temperature region.
ETF size changes and transactions
Last week, there were 30 ETFs worth 10 billion.
This week, from the net value performance of tens of billions of products, it can be seen that the market differentiation is relatively obvious.
Science and technology products have risen in a unique level, but there has been an outflow of funds, which seems to be rational for the small composition market.
Several mainstream broad-based indices also performed well, but only the CSI 300 and CSI 500 had capital inflows, which shows that funds were in the direction of ** last week, which can be regarded as a kind of high cut low.
2.1 Size Index ETF:
The CSI 2000 products continue to flow out sharply, and the scale of Huabai has fallen below 3 billion, and it seems that the market still does not recognize the high valuation level of small-cap stocks.
Next, we should pay attention to whether there will be a double dip in small and micro cap stocks, and if the decline is large, the direction will also be affected to a certain extent.
After the CSI 500 Festival, there have been large amounts of capital subscriptions, but the turnover continues to shrink, which shows that they are medium and long-term chips. Investors who like the best style can pay more attention to the CSI 500 in the near future.
2.2 Major Sector and Thematic ETFs:
Last week was a solo dance in the tech industry, and the other directions basically couldn't even outperform the index.
Semiconductors, new energy, military industry, and TMT now have a new collective name called "new quality productivity", which has the feeling of carbon neutrality in the past, and it is estimated that it will accompany the market hype for a long time.
The performance of medicine is tepid, and Jia Ling** does not bring the direction of fire**, which shows that the market is really aesthetically fatigued. Without the favor of funds, the direction of institutional groups was snatched away by dividends, so it was difficult for medicine to have explosive performance in the first half of the year. However, it is still stronger than most industries, and if you allocate it this year, be careful not to chase up and participate.
Banks, as the first industry to pay dividends, experienced stagnation last week. This week, it is necessary to observe whether it will strengthen against the trend when the market adjusts, and if the resonance adjusts, the trend will go bad.
2.3 Other ETFs:
Last week, the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations and rose sharply. Now the gold price is repeatedly ** in the expectation of interest rate cuts, but the general direction is still upward.
The dividends of dividend products are more obvious, and due to the weakening of defensive attributes, short-term funds are also much more in and out than before.
After a wave of coal adjustment, the subscription funds have increased, and the performance has been good in the past few days, and the market's attention to the direction of high dividends is still very high.
**Ranking of company ETFs by size (excluding currencies and bonds).
It is another bumper week, the market is the first, and the scale of all managers is growing, which shows that the strong performance of the market is driven by incremental funds.
Due to the large redemption of the CSI 2000 ETF last week, the scale growth of Huabo was significantly less than that of other top managers. This wave of CSI 2000 ETF has skyrocketed in scale during a special period**, which is rare in history and is a valuable experience for the entire ETF industry. I look at today's PCF list, the redemption quota has been opened, and the discount has also converged, let's see how many billions the scale of this wave of CSI 2000 ETF can stabilize in the end.
After cheering the South on last week, this week has really taken off. However, the following Harvest is still riveting and chasing forward, and the south can't relax.