Recently, a sensational news came to the world: Russia suddenly announced that starting from March 1, it will ban gasoline exports for up to 6 months, and impose restrictions on diesel exports, resulting in a sharp rise of 16%! What exactly is the reason for this ban? Could it be that there is a shortage of oil in Russia itself? Or is its production not keeping up with demand? Or is this a Russian countermeasure against the West, especially Europe? In fact, the root cause is probably Russia's own shortage of oil products. So, why is this happening? All this seems to be closely related to the sudden increase in the productive activity of Russian society.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West, especially in Europe, has adopted a series of sanctions against Russia, including restricting the goods that the two sides can match each other**. Since Europe no longer supplies certain goods, Russia can only produce them on its own. Moreover, a lot of Russian capital that was originally invested in Europe has now begun to flow back to Russia and invest in manufacturing, which means that Russia has to produce a lot of daily necessities on its own. This increased production activity led to a large increase in energy demand, and various refined oil products became in short supply in an instant, and the increase in production activities led to a shortage of refined oil products. Russia is not only the world's largest oil and gas country, but also occupies an important position in refined oil products, with its exports accounting for 8% of the global share and refined oil exports accounting for 9% of the global share3%。
This situation eventually severely affected Europe, because after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe imposed various sanctions, which led to the inward transfer of Russian industries, and in order to meet the country's demand for refined oil products, Russia temporarily restricted exports to Europe, further exacerbating the shortage of oil products in Europe. In addition, the attack in Ukraine has also directly led to a shortage of Russian oil products, affecting the production of Russian oil products. As a result, there is a big gap in the world oil products trading market, because Russia is no longer in Europe, and other countries have to take the opportunity to fill this gap. China and India have strong production capacities, especially India's refining capacity should not be underestimated, and India can also obtain ** from Russia, so India has the opportunity to make more profits. At the same time, China's petrochemical industry is also very strong, and the volume of refined oil exports to European countries is also increasing, which is expected to reach 400,000 to 600,000 barrels per day, filling the gap left by Russia's export restrictions.
In general, this European behavior has led to a high level of attention to energy issues in Russia, which has further exacerbated market tensions by restricting exports, especially banning gasoline exports. Of course, this also brings us business opportunities, diesel is exported to Europe, and the profit of a ton of diesel is as high as 600 yuan, which is definitely a pretty good thing for us!