Vanke, in the turmoil, can no longer withstand any wind and grass, and a news that has refuted rumors still makes it frightened, and its stock price falls in response.
Recently, there was news on the Internet that Vanke owed Xinhua Assets 10 billion yuan, and when the repayment date was approaching, Vanke Xitu Xinhua Assets could be extended, but the negotiations between the two sides failed.
As soon as the news came out, Vanke and Xinhua Asset Management urgently refuted the rumors, resolutely saying that there was no such thing and that they were full of confidence in the future.
However, in recent years, Chinese society has long formed a consensus: rumors are far ahead of the prediction, whether it is the general public or the best investors, they are convinced of this. Since the news about Vanke was determined by the parties concerned to be rumors, investors obviously believe that it is not out of the ordinary.
On March 4, Vanke's secondary market suffered a double kill of stocks and bonds, "22 Vanke 06" bonds **20%, and the stock price was regulated at the opening, and then **46%, the market value of the day lost 54 billion yuan.
Since 2015, Baoneng Group opened the door of Vanke's equity, and for nearly 10 years, the equity competition around Vanke has been full of ups and downs, and a tragicomedy of watching him rise a high-rise building and seeing his building collapse.
In January 2018, after Baoneng, Evergrande exited, and Shenzhen Metro Group took the helm of Vanke, Vanke's share price reached an all-time high of 4224 yuan. But time has changed, 6 years later, Vanke's share price has been falling endlessly, repeatedly falling below 10 yuan, to March 4 ***9Calculated at 7 yuan, Vanke's market value has lost 380 billion yuan in 6 years.
In the past 8 years, there are mainly Yao Zhenhua's Baoneng Group, Xu Jiayin's Evergrande Group, the central enterprise China Resources Group and the state-owned Shenzhen Metro Group. Now, the smoke of gunpowder has dissipated, the winners and losers have been divided, and the 380 billion collapsed snowflakes have fallen on whose body?
Baoneng Group, which can earn up to 50 billion, was eventually crushed by the wheels of history and fell into trouble
On July 10, 2015, Baoneng Chariot drove to Vanke for the first time. On the same day, Qianhai Life Insurance controlled by Baoneng Group spent 8 billion yuan through the secondary market ** Vanke A about 55.2 billion shares, with an average price of about 15 yuan, accounting for about 5% of Vanke's total share capital.
On July 24 and August 26, Yao Zhenhua's other company, Shenzhen Jushenghua Group, also joined the battle group, and the shareholding ratio of the two companies reached more than 15% in one fell swoop after two signs, surpassing the largest shareholder at that time, China Resources Group.
On December 18, 2015, in the face of the imminent trend of Baoneng, Vanke** suspended trading until July 4, 2016.
By the time of the suspension, Jushenghua and Qianhai Life Insurance had held a total of 24 Vanke**26%。After the resumption of trading, Baoneng continued to increase its holdings until it reached 254%, the number of shares to 28400 million shares.
However, during the suspension period, various forces competed, including Baoneng's initiative to convene a board of directors, the removal of Wang Shi and other directors of Vanke, the intervention of Shenzhen Metro Group, Wang Shi's report on Baoneng's capital violations, and Evergrande Group's disruption. Baoneng's strength gradually ran out, and finally chose to cash out.
According to the data, from April 2018 to April 2020, Baoneng held 28400 million shares of Vanke** will be thrown out in batches until all are exhausted.
Baoneng Department first intervened in Vanke**, the average price was about 15 yuan, by the end of 2015, Vanke's share price has been maintained at about 15 yuan, the lowest price to see 12 yuan, until the equity competition is fierce, only ** to more than 20 yuan. According to comprehensive estimates, Baoneng holds more than 2.8 billion shares of Vanke, with an average price of about 15 yuan.
During the period from April 2018 to April 2020, Vanke's share price reached a maximum of 33 yuan and a minimum of 20 yuan. If calculated according to the average of 28 yuan, the total profit of Baoneng Vanke can reach about 36 billion yuan.
Of course, if calculated according to the most advanced calculation, the profit of Baoneng can reach more than 50 billion yuan. But after all, *** is not known to the outside world, and if you enlarge the range, the profit is between 300-50 billion yuan. Baoneng Department of Vanke battle, although failed to achieve the top, joined the board of directors, took advantage of the prosperity, and retreated, but the overall harvest was quite rich.
But who knew that Yao Zhenhua, who returned with a full load, gradually fell into an embarrassment in the next few years and couldn't extricate himself.
Xu Jiayin joined the chariot and supported the Shenzhen Metro Group, taking the initiative to lose 7 billion
On the occasion of Baoneng Vanke's fierce battle, on August 4, 2016, Evergrande Group suddenly issued an announcement that Evergrande and Chairman Xu Jiayin purchased about 51.7 billion Vanke A shares, with a shareholding ratio of 468% at a cost of 91100 million yuan. Evergrande said at the time that the addition was due to Vanke's strong financial performance as one of China's largest property developers.
Three months later, the battle between Baoneng and Vanke is still unclear, and it is still difficult to predict who will win and who will lose. On November 17, 2016, its shareholding increased to 9452%, and currently holds a total of 104.3 billion shares, accounting for 9452%, with a total cost of 22.2 billion yuan.
On December 29, 2016, Xu Jiayin and Evergrande Group's shareholding in Vanke reached 1407%, and the number of shares held reached 155.3 billion shares, with a holding cost of about 36 billion yuan.
According to Vanke's shareholding structure at that time, Baoneng was the largest shareholder with a shareholding ratio of 254%, and China Resources Group holds 1531%。Evergrande Group holds 1407% of the shares, ranking the third largest shareholder, and very close to the second largest shareholder, China Resources Group.
Judging from the situation at that time, Xu Jiayin's participation in the equity dispute between Baoneng and Vanke was a wonderful stroke from both a strategic and tactical point of view.
From a tactical point of view, Vanke is a leader in the domestic real estate industry, with stable operation and excellent performance, and is an ideal target for financial investment, and at the last time of Evergrande Group, Vanke's share price has climbed to more than 28 yuan, and Evergrande's average price is about 23 yuan, and there is a profit of nearly 10 billion yuan on the book at that time.
From a strategic point of view, before Xu Jiayin's intervention, Shenzhen Metro Group had already stepped into the forefront, intending to clean up the chaos of Vanke and take over the status of a major shareholder. Now Xu Jiayin, with 14% of the shares, can reap vested benefits, and can form an alliance with state-owned assets to stabilize the Shenzhen market.
In fact, as soon as Evergrande entered the game, Shenzhen State-owned Assets sent an olive branch to Xu Jiayin - in October 2016, Evergrande Group reached an agreement with Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) that Evergrande Group will backdoor listing of Shenzhen Real Estate A (000029), a subsidiary of Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.
Therefore, when Shenzhen Metro changed its strategy, Evergrande immediately became a key bargaining chip to influence the battle situation. On June 9, 2017, Vanke announced that Evergrande Group will hold 155.3 billion shares of Vanke were all transferred to Metro Group by way of agreement transfer, and the transfer** was RMB 1880 yuan shares, transfer **29.2 billion yuan.
Together with the acquired shares of China Resources Group, Shenzhen Metro Group holds about 32400 million shares, accounting for 29 percent of the company's total share capital38%, becoming the largest shareholder of Vanke.
According to the cost calculation, Evergrande helped Shenzhen state-owned assets this time, with a total loss of 7 billion yuan. Eight months later, Vanke's share price once stood above 42 yuan, and if it made a move at this time, it could theoretically make a profit of 30 billion yuan.
But people are not as good as heaven, and the later deep housing restructuring was blocked, and Evergrande Group fell into debt difficulties, until Xu Jiayin was imprisoned, and the big ship of Evergrande Group was full of holes, and it was unpredictable how long it could last in an environment of rapid wind and high waves.
China Resources Group has retired after success and become a visible winner
Since August 2000, China Resources has become the largest shareholder of Vanke, and has since increased its shareholding several times, and its shareholding ratio has been maintained at about 15%.
According to financial statistics, China Resources took over about 10% of the shares of Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for the first time in 2000, and later increased its holdings in the secondary market, with a total cost of about 200 million yuan.
During this period, China Resources was able to get along with Vanke's management, including Wang Shi, performing their own duties and achieving each other's achievements, and for nearly 20 years, Vanke was able to grow in peace.
But Baoneng, a "barbarian", knocked on the door and broke the balance between China Resources and Vanke. At first, China Resources expressed its support for Vanke's management and did not want Baoneng to take the position, but in March 2016, when Vanke's management planned to introduce the state-owned Shenzhen Metro Group, China Resources Group, as the largest shareholder, officially broke with Vanke's management.
China Resources Group said that the announcement of the cooperation between Vanke and Shenzhen Metro was not discussed and passed by the board of directors, and was a decision made by Vanke's management, adding that "the directors of China Resources stationed in Vanke have reflected relevant opinions to the relevant regulatory authorities and require Vanke's operation to comply with the law."
At that time, Vanke announced that it would introduce Shenzhen Metro Group and issue 400-60 billion yuan to it**. In this way, China Resources Group will lose its position as the largest shareholder, and it is reasonable that it will not hesitate to tear up its face with Vanke's management.
Later, in June 2016, Vanke's board of directors approved a plan to issue shares to Shenzhen Metro Group to purchase assets, which was again opposed by China Resources Group. At the same time, China Resources Group also resolutely opposes Baoneng's proposal to remove all directors of Vanke.
From this point of view, China Resources Group is standing in the perspective of the largest shareholder to safeguard the interests of central enterprises, so it not only opposes Vanke's introduction of Metro Group, but also strongly rejects the reshuffle of Baoneng Group.
In 2016, as Evergrande Group participated in the disruption, swept the secondary market with its financial strength, and the number of shares held approached China Resources Group.
On June 10, 2017, China Resources Group will be all 16All 8.9 billion shares were transferred to Shenzhen Metro Group to help it ascend. **22 yuan per share, with a transfer amount of 37.1 billion yuan.
17 years ago, China Resources Group invested in Vanke at a cost of more than 200 million yuan, and 17 years later, at a consideration of 37 billion yuan**, even if you don't count the dividends of these years, it has made a huge profit of 180 times. China Resources is the real winner in the battle for Vanke's equity.
If China Resources does not make a move, Vanke's secondary market is now 97 or so **, its 16Of the 8.9 billion shares, only 16.3 billion yuan remained, a decrease of nearly 20 billion yuan compared with 37 billion yuan.
Therefore, in the face of Vanke's current situation, the decision-makers of China Resources Group at that time should high-five and celebrate.
Shenzhen Metro Group, paid 66.3 billion yuan, winning in the overall situation
In the case of China Resources Group's unclear attitude and Baoneng's aggressiveness, Shenzhen Metro Group was invited to save Vanke from the fall.
On March 13, 2016, Vanke disclosed for the first time that it had signed a memorandum of cooperation with Shenzhen Metro Group to acquire its underlying assets, with a transaction consideration of between RMB40.06 billion, mainly by way of private placement of shares. It is expected that after the completion of the transaction, Shenzhen Metro will surpass the Baoneng system at that time and become the largest shareholder.
Subsequently, in June 2016, Vanke announced that the board of directors had approved the proposal to issue shares to purchase shares of Shenzhen Metro. But this proposal was questioned by China Resources, opposed by Baoneng, and the exchange also paid attention. Obviously, the final implementation will be extremely difficult.
Until August 2016, after Evergrande Group joined the continuous holding of a huge amount of Vanke**, Shenzhen State-owned Assets changed its strategy, from asset injection in exchange for shares, to directly acquire shares in China Resources and Evergrande in cash, controlling Vanke and driving away Baoneng.
Subsequently, Shenzhen Metro immediately terminated the asset restructuring with Vanke, acquiring the shareholding of China Resources for 37.1 billion yuan and the shareholding of Evergrande Group for 29.2 billion yuan, with a total consideration of 66.3 billion yuan, a total of about 32400 million shares, accounting for 29 percent of Vanke's total share capital38%, surpassing Baoneng and becoming the largest shareholder of Vanke A. The Baoneng Department also chose to cash out under Vanke's condemnation and management's "concern".
The equity battle between Baoneng and Vanke finally came to an end two years later, ending with the victory of Shenzhen State-owned Assets.
The author believes that the victory of Shenzhen's state-owned assets should be mainly reflected in the strategic level: driving out the "barbarians", sending the major shareholders of central enterprises out of the country, and incorporating the top domestic real estate companies into the local state-owned assets system.
However, from a tactical point of view, the huge investment of Shenzhen's state-owned assets will take time. Based on the recent calculation, the value of Shenzhen Metro Group is 31.5 billion yuan, which is 35 billion yuan from the original real gold of 66.3 billion yuan.
In just a few years, the vigorous "Baowan dispute" is still vaguely yesterday, but the market environment is already heaven and earth. Haohao history, rolling red dust, who can become the real winner? The author believes that perhaps only those who can retreat bravely at the moment when they realize their assets in time, return their cash, and climb the tide can be worthy of the title of winner.