In the next two decades, the challenges of the family economy and the choices of society
In the prediction of economist Professor Wang Fuzhong, we see a thought-provoking future - in 20 years, most families may not be able to afford to hire nannies and eat takeaways. Behind this view, there are multiple factors such as the decrease in the demographic dividend, the rising cost of the service industry, and the increasing economic pressure on young people. So, how much credibility does this prophecy have? And how do we respond to this possible future?
First, the demographic dividend is decreasing and the cost of the service industry is rising.
Over the past few decades, China's rapid economic growth has benefited from a huge demographic dividend. However, over time, this advantage is fading away. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's working-age population has declined for eight consecutive years since 2012. This means that the labor market will face even more challenges in the future.
As the demographic dividend decreases, the cost of the service industry will naturally rise. As an important part of the labor market, the salary level of service workers such as nannies and food delivery workers directly affects the consumption expenditure of households. When the labor market is in short supply, wages in these industries will naturally rise, increasing the financial burden on households.
Second, the economic considerations of young people's reluctance to get married and have children.
In addition to the decrease in the demographic dividend, young people's attitudes towards getting married and having children have also changed. Driven by economic pressure, more and more young people choose to marry later and have children later or even at all. They are worried that getting married and having children will bring a heavy financial burden to them and affect their quality of life.
In fact, such fears are not unfounded. Taking housing prices as an example, the persistence of housing prices in recent years has discouraged many young people. High housing prices are not only unaffordable for young people, but also uncertain about the future. In this context, it is natural for them to think more carefully about getting married and having children.
3. The far-reaching impact of fertility on the country's economy.
The fertility rate will not only have an impact on the family economy, but also have a profound impact on the national economy. A country's economic development is inseparable from the support of sufficient human resources. However, with the declining fertility rate, the labor market will face a severe shortage of supply in the future. This will lead to a series of problems such as rising labor costs, declining corporate profits, and slowing economic growth.
In addition, declining fertility rates will lead to an aging population. The increase in the elderly population will bring a heavy burden to the society and increase the pressure on fiscal expenditure. At the same time, as the elderly population increases, the consumer market will also change. This will have a profound impact on the country's industrial structure and economic development model.
Fourth, how to deal with the challenges of the future.
In the face of challenges such as the declining demographic dividend and the fertility rate, we need to deal with them from both the policy and social levels.
At the policy level, young people can be encouraged to marry and have children by formulating more preferential birth policies and improving social security levels. At the same time, it can also reduce the economic burden of families by adjusting the industrial structure and improving the efficiency of the service industry.
At the societal level, we need to create a more inclusive and equal social environment where young people can feel confident about their future. In addition, we can also improve young people's sense of family responsibility and social responsibility through publicity and education, and encourage them to actively assume family responsibilities and social responsibilities.
V. Conclusion. Professor Wang Fuzhong's views remind us that in the face of the decline of the demographic dividend and the increase in fertility, we must re-examine our economic and social development model. We need to adapt to the challenges that may arise in the future through policy adjustments and social efforts to encourage young people to marry and have children, while improving the efficiency of the service sector and reducing costs.
In this process, we need to keep a clear head and a strong conviction. We believe that with the joint efforts of the society and society, we will be able to overcome future challenges and achieve sustainable social prosperity and long-term development of the country.
At the same time, we need to recognize that the challenges ahead are not insurmountable. As long as we adhere to the people-oriented development concept, respect the choices and lifestyles of young people, and actively respond to issues such as the reduction of demographic dividend and fertility rate, we will be able to create a better future.
Let us work together to meet the challenges of the future and work hard to realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation!