There are six highlights of this ** economic work conference: First, high-quality development runs through the full text of the communiqué and becomes the theme of next year's economic development, and the meeting arranges nine tasks around high-quality development. Second, it is necessary to fully understand the current difficulties, challenges, and favorable conditions, and to point out the important principles for next year's economic work. Third, macroeconomic regulation and control are effectively coordinated, and the overall tone adheres to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and intensifying macroeconomic regulation and control. Fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, quality and efficiency should be improved, and the structure of fiscal expenditure should be optimized. The monetary policy is flexible, moderate, precise and effective, and pays more attention to the guiding role of the highest level. In addition, non-economic policies were taken into account in an integrated manner. Fourth, scientific and technological innovation leads the construction of a modern industrial system. Fifth, we will further promote the strategy of rural revitalization. Sixth, it is emphasized that we should pay close attention to implementation.
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*The Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11-12. General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and Chairman of the Military Commission attended the meeting and delivered important speeches.
The meeting believed that this year is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and a year for economic recovery after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control. With Comrade Wu as the core, we will unite and lead the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups in the country to withstand external pressure, overcome internal difficulties, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, increase macroeconomic regulation and control, and strive to expand domestic demand, optimize structure, boost confidence, prevent and resolve risks, and China's economy has rebounded for the better, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted. Important progress has been made in the construction of a modern industrial system, new breakthroughs have been made in scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up have been promoted in depth, the foundation for safe development has been consolidated and consolidated, people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, and solid steps have been taken to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way.
The meeting pointed out that to further promote the economic rebound, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges, mainly due to the lack of effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and many hidden risks. It is necessary to enhance the sense of distress and effectively deal with and resolve these problems. On the whole, the favorable conditions facing China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed.
The meeting demanded that next year, we should persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and come up with more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, and actively forging ahead in changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving quality, and increasing efficiency, so as to continuously consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement. It is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools.
Brief comment: 1. High-quality development.
High-quality development runs through the full text of the communiqué of the meeting, and the word "high-quality development" is mentioned 16 times in the full text, which is the core and main line of economic development next year. The meeting proposed, "Next year, we should focus on promoting high-quality development, highlight the key points, grasp the key, and do a solid job in economic work." The meeting put forward a total of nine types of tasks to promote high-quality development. From the perspective of major categories, the nine types of tasks are all involved in the 2022 ** Economic Work Conference, but there are new changes in this meeting. The first is to pay attention to the linkage between several major policies. Scientific and technological innovation and the construction of a modern industrial system are divided into paragraphs in the 2022 ** Economic Work Conference, which are expressed as "industrial policies should be developed and security at the same time" and "science and technology policies should focus on self-reliance and self-reliance". This conference will combine science and technology policy with industrial policy, clearly lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, and organically link it with important concepts such as new quality productivity, new first-class system, and new industrialization into a whole. Second, the policy deployment is more refined. The 2022 ** Economic Work Conference combined the rural revitalization strategy, regional development strategy and green development strategy into one paragraph, with a total of 112 words, which only involves principled expressions. The meeting divided the three strategies into paragraphs, with a total of 577 words in the three paragraphs, which not only clarified the focus, principles and bottom line of the strategy, but also deployed the key directions of the work. Third, there have been certain changes in the scope and expression of the policy, and second, we should fully understand the current difficulties, challenges and favorable conditions.
The meeting confronted the current difficulties and challenges in the economy: "To further promote the economic recovery, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges. The main reasons are the lack of effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, still many risks and hidden dangers, the domestic cycle has blockages, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have risen. ”
**Clearly recognize the current difficulties in China's economy: (1) Effective demand is insufficient, since 2023, China's prices have remained at a low level, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has been less than 0 for 8 consecutive months since April5%, of which the year-on-year growth rate for 4 months is 0 or negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been negative for 14 consecutive months since October 2022, and the price index is low, indicating that China's current effective demand is still weak. (2) Overcapacity in some industries, rapid development in some industries in the past few years, industry capacity exceeds market demand, overcapacity leads to market clearance, and the industry is facing restructuring pressure, such as the new energy industry, lithium carbonate** continues to decline, from about 500,000 tons in March 2022 to about 110,000 tons by the end of 2023, a decline of nearly eighty percent, and its downstream new energy vehicles ** have also undergone deep adjustment. (3) Social expectations are weak, and the data shows that the current consumer confidence and business confidence are still weak. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer confidence index in October 2023 was 879. The income, employment, and consumption willingness indices are ., respectively7. There is still a certain gap from the 100 line of prosperity and withering. In terms of the PMI index, the manufacturing PMI has only reached 50 in September for eight consecutive months since April2. Breaking through the boom and bust line, the rest of the months fell in the contraction range, and the PMI** in November was 494。The services PMI reached a year-to-date peak of 56 in March9, after which it entered a downward range, falling to 49 in November3. Fall below the line of prosperity and withering. (4) There are still many hidden risks, mainly referring to real estate risks, small and medium-sized financial institutions risks and local debt risks. (5) There are blockages in the domestic circulation, mainly including excessive competition between regions, market segmentation caused by the dual structure of urban and rural areas, prominent administrative allocation of resources in some fields, insufficient logistics system, artificial restrictions and purchase restrictions in some industries, and other policy obstructions, the lag of some technical standards inhibiting demand, insufficient marketization of factors, and the internal and external circulation of state-owned capital to be opened up 2. (6) The complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have risen, and Western countries led by the United States have been unfriendly to China, and have adopted two-way investment restrictions, import and export controls, discriminatory subsidies and other repressive measures against China's high-tech industries.
The meeting expressed optimism about economic development, "On the whole, the favorable conditions for China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors. The economy is rebounding and improving, and the basic trend of long-term improvement has not changed, so it is necessary to enhance confidence and confidence. "The meeting made clear the ideas and principles of promoting the economic rebound, that is, the overall relationship between the three aspects and the adherence to the four principles," in recent years, in the first Under our strong leadership, we have effectively coordinated the overall domestic and international situation, coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, coordinated development and security, deepened the understanding of the regularity of doing a good job in economic work in the new era, and must adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era, we must persist in deepening supply-side structural reform and focus on expanding effective demand, and make concerted efforts, we must insist on relying on reform and opening up, enhance the endogenous driving force of development, we must adhere to high-quality development and high-level security and benign interaction, and we must take the promotion of Chinese-style modernization as the biggest politics。 ”
Third, macroeconomic regulation and control are effectively coordinated.
1. The overall tone: adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and increasing macroeconomic regulation and control.
The overall tone of macroeconomic policies is consistent with the Politburo meeting in December, that is, "adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, increasing macroeconomic regulation and control, and producing more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment, and actively forging ahead in changing modes, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency, so as to continuously consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement." It is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies. "The so-called seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down is to grasp the rhythm of reform, and steadily promote various reform work in the economic field under the premise of stabilizing the current economic fundamentals, which cannot be achieved overnight.
2. Fiscal policy: optimization of the structure of fiscal expenditure.
The meeting pointed out that "the active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, and the quality and efficiency should be improved." It is necessary to make good use of the fiscal policy space and improve the efficiency of funds and the effectiveness of policies. Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures and strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategic tasks. Reasonably expand the scope of local ** special bonds to be used as capital. Implement structural tax and fee reduction policies, and focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of manufacturing industry. Strict supervision of transfer payment funds, strict financial discipline. Enhance fiscal sustainability and strengthen the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. Strict control of general expenditures. Party and government organs should Xi living a tight life. ”
Compared with the expression of "active fiscal policy should be strengthened to improve efficiency" of the 2022 ** Economic Work Conference, this meeting highlighted the characteristics of "quality improvement", specifically there are differences in the following aspects: First, the optimization of fiscal expenditure structure, not only emphasizing the total amount and fiscal tools, but also emphasizing the direction and effect of funds. The meeting stated, "It is necessary to make good use of the fiscal policy space and improve the efficiency of funds and policies." Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures and strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategic tasks. Implement structural tax and fee reduction policies, and focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of manufacturing industry. In contrast, the 2022 meeting was expressed as "maintaining the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, and optimizing the combination of deficits, special bonds, interest discounts and other tools". Second, expand the use of local ** special bonds. The meeting pointed out that "the scope of local ** special bonds used as capital should be reasonably expanded." "Third, strict financial discipline. The meeting pointed out that "strict supervision of transfer payment funds and strict financial discipline." Strict control of general expenditures. Party and government organs should Xi living a tight life. ”
We believe that there are still three main reasons for the further development of fiscal policy next year: First, steady growth next year is expected to remain an important main line of economic development, the economic growth target is expected to be around 5%, there is still some pressure on stable growth, and the necessity of fiscal policy next year is strong. Second, despite the issuance of trillions of special government bonds, the fiscal deficit ratio target for 2023 will reach 38%, is the highest level since 2000, but compared with the level of international developed countries, China's deficit rate is still low as a whole. In 2022, the leverage ratio of China's ** sector will be 538%, which is still a certain distance from the internationally accepted 60% leverage ratio warning line, and is also lower than that of major market economies and emerging market countries. Third, 500 billion yuan of the trillion yuan of special treasury bonds will be carried forward to next year, and this year's 500 billion yuan of funds will also be implemented as physical workload next year, and the special treasury bonds will lay the main tone for fiscal force. In terms of fiscal policy structure, we believe that next year*** will be more active than that of local governments**. From a structural point of view, the international generally has a high leverage ratio and a low local leverage ratio, while China is just the opposite, showing the characteristics of high local leverage ratio and low leverage ratio, and the difference between the two continues to expand, and the leverage ratio difference is 36% increased to 86 per cent, an increase of 5 percentage points. China's local debt pressure is relatively large, but there is still a lot of room for development. Local debt risk is an important problem in China, in this context, the scale of local debt may be limited to a certain extent, at present, local ** have issued special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts, to take the "time for space" way to turn debts, it is expected that debt will still be an important issue of local finance next year.
3. Monetary policy: ** new formulation of the expected target of the level.
The meeting pointed out that "a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective." Liquidity should be kept reasonable and abundant, and the scale of social financing and the amount of money should match the expected targets of economic growth and the highest level. We should give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools, revitalize the stock, improve efficiency, and guide financial institutions to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and digital economy. Promote the steady and moderate decline of comprehensive social financing costs. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. ”
Last year's economic work conference on monetary policy was expressed as "maintaining the growth rate of broad money and social financing scale to basically match the growth rate of the nominal economy". In contrast, this meeting will divide the nominal economic growth rate into two parts: economic growth and the expected target of the first level, and focus more on emphasizing the important role of monetary policy in stabilizing and guiding the first level, reflecting the concern about the price level, and the next stage is expected to make appropriate efforts to guide the price level to moderate inflation. In terms of structural monetary policy tools, financial resources are expected to be skewed in 2024 compared with the new digital economy sector added last year.
4. Non-economic policies should be considered as a whole.
The meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. Strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies, incorporate non-economic policies into the assessment of the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure that the same direction is exerted and a joint force is formed. Strengthen economic propaganda and guidance, and sing the theory of China's economic brightness. The meeting integrated economic and non-economic policies, emphasized the same direction, formed a joint force, strengthened guidance in propaganda and leadership, and targeted solutions to the current practical problems of weak confidence in our country.
Fourth, scientific and technological innovation leads the construction of a modern industrial system.
The meeting will "lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation" as the primary position of next year's economic work in addition to macroeconomic regulation and control policies, which is the core of promoting high-quality economic development. By sorting out the connotation and connection, we believe that the source of the new quality productivity of scientific and technological innovation, the focus of the new quality productivity is the future industry and strategic emerging industries, that is, the "building a number of strategic emerging industries and opening up a new track for future industries" mentioned in this meeting. The focus of new industrialization lies in "intelligent transformation and digital transformation", that is, intelligent transformation and digital transformation, which is applicable to all manufacturing industries rather than specific industries, that is, the "implementation of high-quality development actions of key industrial chains in the manufacturing industry and the improvement of the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain" mentioned in this meeting. In our view, technological innovation is expected to be one of the main investment threads in 2024.
Fifth, the comprehensive revitalization of the countryside.
The meeting used two sub-arguments to elaborate on the comprehensive revitalization of the countryside, namely the sixth point "unremittingly grasp the work of agriculture, agriculture and rural areas" and the seventh point "promote the coordinated development of urban and rural integration regions", and the length and importance of the work of agriculture, agriculture and rural areas and the comprehensive revitalization of the countryside have been significantly increased compared with previous years.
The meeting mentioned that "we should learn from Xi apply the experience of tens of millions of projects", and the tens of millions of projects refer to the "demonstration of thousands of villages and renovation of thousands of villages" project, which has been awarded by the highest environmental honor of the United Nations "Champions of the Earth". Its main content is land consolidation in the whole area. In December 2019, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of Comprehensive Land Consolidation in the Whole Region (Natural Resources Development No. 2019 No. 194) to start the pilot work of comprehensive land consolidation in the whole region. In January 2021, the Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources on Printing and Distributing the Pilot List of Comprehensive Land Consolidation Projects (Natural Resources Office Letter 2020 No. 2421) deployed 446 township-based pilots in 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) across the country. At present, the focus of global land consolidation is reflected in the following four aspects: The principle of "pilot first, then promote": comprehensive land consolidation is in the pilot stage, and the relevant policies are strictly controlled within the scope of the pilot. Comprehensive requirements: The comprehensive land consolidation of the whole region changes the previous land consolidation mode of a single element and a single means, and promotes the consolidation of agricultural land, construction land and ecological protection and restoration as a whole through comprehensive measures such as "global planning, global design, and global consolidation", and promotes the optimization of land spatial pattern, the promotion of cultivated land protection, and the realization of multiple goals such as land conservation and intensive utilizationHowever, in order to support poverty alleviation, since 2016, the former Ministry of Land and Resources has twice expanded the scope of the circulation of surplus indicators linked to increases and decreases, and allowed the surplus indicators generated by the linkage to be circulated and used within the provincial scope for concentrated contiguous poverty-stricken areas and key counties of national and provincial poverty alleviation and development work. Financial support: At present, it is not appropriate to set up a new special project for comprehensive land consolidation, and it is recommended to give full play to the role of existing policies and funding channels. The Key Points for the Implementation of Comprehensive Land Consolidation (Natural Resources and Ecological Restoration Letter 2020 No. 37) issued in June 2020 proposes that all localities can actively carry out institutional innovation, make full use of the supporting role of development financial institutions, policy banks and social capital in comprehensive land consolidation, expand investment and financing channels, explore market-oriented and socialized operation mechanisms, and optimize the circulation and use systems such as surplus construction land indicators and supplementary cultivated land indicators.
The meeting also mentioned "raising the standard of investment in high-standard farmland construction". According to the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Transformation and Upgrading of High-standard Farmland" issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2023, the construction plan of high-standard farmland is clearly given, "from 2023 to 2030, the average annual transformation and upgrading of 35 million mu of high-standard farmland in the country will be given".With the primary goal of improving grain production capacity, focusing on the eight aspects of "field, soil, water, road, forest, electricity, technology and management", adhere to the problem-oriented and goal-oriented, determine the content of transformation and upgrading according to local conditions, and strive to improve construction standards and quality. In terms of the scale of funds, the guiding opinions propose to strive for the average investment per mu of high-standard farmland construction to gradually reach about 3,000 yuan, and the average annual investment is about 100 billion yuan. Follow-up recommendations continue to focus on raising the level of increase in input standards.
In addition, the meeting mentioned that "it is necessary to organically combine the promotion of new urbanization and the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas, and promote the two-way flow of various elements". The two-way flow of various factors, including manpower, technology, capital, etc., includes both rural elements into the city and urban elements into the countryside, and the policy idea of solving the current dual structure of urban and rural areas in a market-oriented way has been further recognized. For the specific content of rural revitalization, please refer to the previous report "Rural Revitalization Strategy: Context, Progress and Focus" released by the Policy Group of China Securities Construction Investment
Sixth, grasp the implementation.
The meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to grasp the implementation to the letter and ensure that the final effect is in line with the decision-making intention." It is necessary to vigorously and resolutely grasp implementation, make overall plans to grasp the timeliness and efficiency, demand real and pragmatic implementation, and resolutely rectify formalism and bureaucracy. It is necessary to dare to do good deeds and grasp implementation, adhere to the correct orientation in employing people, and give full play to the enthusiasm, initiative, and creativity of leading cadres at all levels. "The continuous use of four sentences to emphasize the implementation is enough to see the current importance to the implementation of the policy. In the early stage, both ministries and commissions and local governments have issued a series of policies to stabilize economic growth and promote high-quality development, but some of these policies are difficult to effectively implement and become a place of concern for the society. At this stage, we have fully realized the importance of the policy transmission mechanism, increased efforts in the implementation of the policy, and observed the implementation of the policy based on the timeliness and efficiency, which we believe will have a good role in promoting economic development next year.
This is an abridged excerpt from the report, the original PDF of the report
Policy Analysis-Six Highlights of the 2023** Economic Work Conference: The Last Word in the New Era-China Securities Construction Investment-20231213[Page 17]".
Report**: Value Catalog