Recently, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2024. The meeting released a lot of good information about the steel market, especially rebar**. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of these impacts.
First of all, the meeting stressed that the general direction of steady economic growth has not changed. This means that the strategy of taking consumption and investment as the main "starting points" for stable growth will continue. It is expected that the national economic growth rate will be around 5% in 2024, which provides a good macroeconomic environment for the stable growth of the steel market. As the total demand for steel (including exports) is expected to increase by about 3% over the previous year, this will become a positive factor for the growth of the national economy.
Second, the meeting decided to continue and moderately intensify the proactive fiscal policy. This means that in the new year, more government bonds will be issued, the fiscal deficit ratio will be raised, and the investment of ** funds in the infrastructure sector will be increased. Most of these funds will go into the investment field, which will have a positive effect on economic stability and steel demand growth in 2024.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance has made it clear that it will issue part of the new local ** debt quota in 2024 in advance, which will provide financial support for local **, stabilize investment, promote the economy, and may be converted into demand for steel.
Finally, the meeting emphasized that the prudent monetary policy will continue to be implemented and made more flexible, moderate, precise and effective.
This means that China will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy and may increase the degree of accommodative further. It is expected that the central bank is likely to implement another interest rate cut and two RRR cuts respectively, which will further reduce the level of market interest rates and provide a friendly capital environment for the steel market. In addition, in response to the current predicament of the real estate market, monetary policy will also accurately support the demand for rigid and improved housing, as well as meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownerships. This will have a positive impact on stabilizing domestic demand for Chinese steel and the expectations of market participants.
The Politburo meeting brought a positive signal to the rebar market. The general direction of steady economic growth, the continuation and moderate afterburner of the active fiscal policy, and the flexible and moderate effectiveness of the prudent monetary policy will provide a good macroeconomic environment and policy support for the steel market in 2024. In particular, the bottoming out of the real estate market will have a significant impact on the rebar market.
Overall, the positive information released by the Politburo meeting is positive for the rebar market. The implementation of these policy measures will help stabilize and promote economic growth, increase steel demand, and also provide more opportunities for everyone. However, we must remain cautious and grasp the market dynamics and policy trends in order to move forward steadily in the changing market environment.
Let's take a look at the technical side of the rebar, the current position seems to be weaker, but it should be noted that the position of the long and short game is very strong, we don't want to look at the policy news immediately after the long, once the position falls below that may turn empty, so we still have to be cautious, the more good the more cautious. At present, there is still an opportunity to go long in this position, after all, it is still in the first trend, and if you want to be short, you will wait for the ** after the break. Another point is that the short cycle has not caused structural damage after the upward **, so in fact, the disk is still dominated by **, and friends who like to seek stability on the right side will mainly wait and see. over