China 2023EconomyThe recovery has encountered challenges, in addition to the impact of multiple domestic factors, globallyRecessionThe trend is even more worrying. as heightExport-oriented economyChina, heavily dependent on exports, the global situation is not good for ChinaEconomyThere was a lot of pressure.
According to the data, the total value of China's import and export of goods reached 4207 trillionRMB, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and exports increased by 105%。This shows that in 2022, China's foreign trade performance is very strong. However, the 2023 data has completely changed the landscape. Since October 2022, the downward trend in exports has been obvious, except for a brief period in this year**, exports in other months have decreased year-on-year. Especially in the second half of this year, the downward trend is even more pronounced. In dollar terms, it fell by 145%, down 88%, down 62%, down 64%。This downward trend is in ChinaEconomyThe impact has been huge.
According to statistics, in the first 10 months of 2023, the total value of China's imports and exports fell by 6%, and its exports fell by 56%, imports fell by 65%。SurplusAlso down 27%。It can be clearly seen that China's foreign trade as a whole is showing a downward trend. If this trend continues, it is expected to weigh on China's GDP growth by nearly 1 percentage point this year. In other words, if China's imports and exports remain the same as last year, GDP growth could reach 6%.
It is worth noting that the export is oneIndustrial chainNot only the export of goods, but also the contribution of related industries to GDP cannot be ignored. In order to change the situation of exports, China has taken a series of measures, such as increasing the number of exportsThe Belt and Road Initiativeinvestment and exports from countries along the Belt and Road, strengthening cooperation with BRICS countries, etc. Among them, stimulating exports by increasing foreign investment is an important strategic measure. According to the data, from January to October 2023, China has been in AfricaFinanceDirect investment increased by 17 percent year-on-year3%, of which rightThe Belt and Road InitiativeInvestment in the co-construction countries increased by 27 per cent. However, the export stimulus effect of these measures is still not able to offset the global effectRecessionand the negative impact of shrinking demand in developed countries.
However, at the beginning of December 2023, a major piece of positive news finally arrived, globallyCut interest ratesThe tide is coming. According to the ".CBNreported that due to the easing of the inflation situation andEconomyThe urgent need for recovery, many emergingEconomyThe body begins to adjustMonetary policy, leading to the worldCut interest ratesmore countries than interest rate hikes. There are analysts who believe that theseCut interest ratesand other factors are expected to bring good market performance andEconomyForeground.
The significance and signal of this news is very important, since March 2022, affected by the violent interest rate hike of the US dollar, global currencies have depreciated, and the assets of various countries have **Significant declineIn order to preserve exchange rates and assets, many countries have raised interest rates, resulting in far more central banks raising interest rates than in more than a yearCut interest ratesThe number of central banks. Nowadays, howeverCut interest ratesThe number of central banks has exceeded the number of central banks raising interest rates, marking an important turning point. This means, globallyEconomyA great opportunity is about to be ushered in.
GlobalRecessionand the contraction in demand is mainly due to the post-pandemic periodEconomySlow recovery, unstable global political and security situationEnergy crisiswithInflationand other factors. And the US dollar paused to raise interest rates andInflationRelief, plusCut interest ratesThe number of countries exceeds the number of countries that raise interest rates, and it will be globalEconomyof the recovery. For China, this also means China in 2024EconomyExpected to be strong**.
GlobalCut interest ratesThe tide is coming for ChinaEconomyThe development of the country has brought new opportunities. On the one hand,Cut interest ratescan boost the worldEconomy, increasing demand from developed countries, thereby driving China's exports back. On the other hand,Cut interest ratesIt can also reduce the financing cost of enterprises, stimulate domestic demand, increase investment and consumption, and further promote ChinaEconomygrowth.
At the same time, China also needs to further increase its efforts to promote foreign investmentThe Belt and Road Initiativecountries along the Belt and RoadEconomyDevelopment and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. In addition, China should accelerate structural reforms through upgradingIndustrial chainlevel and technological innovation, cultivating new onesEconomyGrowth point, realizationEconomyStructural upgrading and transformation.
In short, globalEconomyCut interest ratesTide for ChinaEconomybrought a significant positive for China in 2024EconomyThe strong ** created favorable conditions. However, the challenges facing China are still severe, and it is necessary to work together with enterprises to increase reform and opening up, create a more favorable development environment, and achieve sustainable development and high-quality development in the last two or three monthsEconomyThe overall trend is positive, but the extent of improvement is not obvious, and there are still some difficulties. So we've been thinking about what could significantly improve ChinaEconomyand let's make the 2024 oneEconomyThe situation is better than this year?Recently, there has been a major piece of good news from the international community, which makes us very happy. Next, we will explain the inner logic to help you understand the news for ChinaEconomyand what it means for 2024EconomyThe impact of trends.
China 2023EconomyThe recovery is facing challenges, in addition to the impact of a variety of domestic factors, globalRecessionThe trend is also worrying. As highly dependent on exportsEconomyChina is very closely connected to the global market. Through a set of data, we can see how dependent China is on the international community. In 2022, the total value of China's imports and exports of goods was 4207 trillionRMB, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and its ** mouth is 2397 trillionRMB, an increase of 105%。In 2022, China's GDP was 121 trillionRMB, while net exports of goods and services to GDPContribution rateUp to 171%。It can be seen that China's foreign trade performance in 2022 is very strong. However, the data for 2023 is very different. Except for a brief period from March to April this year**, exports have been declining year-on-year in other periods. Especially in the second half of this year, the downward trend is very obvious. In dollar terms, exports fell in the first 10 months of the year. 2% and 64%。Overall, in the first 10 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 4$9 trillion, down 6%. Among them, exports fell by 56%, imports fell by 65%，SurplusDropped by 27%。The data shows that China's foreign trade as a whole has shown a downward trend recently, and ChinaEconomyIt is gradually bottoming out, but the pace of improvement is still slow and there are some challenges. So we've been thinking about how to move ChinaEconomyFaster recovery to make 2024EconomyThe situation is better. Recently, there was a piece of good news that sparked our attention and research. Below we will explain the logic to help you understand the news for ChinaEconomythe importance of 2024EconomyThe impact of the trend.
China 2023EconomyThere are many challenges that are affected not only by a variety of factors domestically, but also globallyRecessionThe trend is also worrying. As highly dependent on exportsEconomyChina is very closely connected to the global market. Through a set of data, we can see how dependent China is on the international community. In 2022, the total value of China's imports and exports of goods reached 4207 trillionRMB, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and its ** volume increased by 105%。This shows that in 2022, China's foreign trade performance is very strong. However, the data for 2023 presents a completely different picture. Since October 2022, China's exports have shown a clear downward trend, although there was a brief ** in March-April this year, but exports in other periods fell year-on-year. Especially in the second half of this year, the downward trend is even more pronounced. In dollar terms, it fell by 145%, down 88%, down 62%, down 64%。This downward trend is in ChinaEconomyCaused a tremendous amount of stress.
According to statistics, in the first 10 months of 2023, the total value of China's imports and exports fell by 6%, and its exports fell by 56%, imports fell by 65%。SurplusAlso down 27%。It can be clearly seen that China's foreign trade as a whole is showing a downward trend. If this trend continues, it is expected to weigh on China's GDP growth by nearly 1 percentage point this year. In other words, if China's imports and exports remain the same as last year, GDP growth could reach 6%.
It is worth noting that the export is oneIndustrial chainNot only the export of goods, but also the contribution of related industries to GDP cannot be ignored. In order to change the situation of exports, China has taken a series of measures, such as increasing the number of exportsThe Belt and Road Initiativeinvestment and exports from countries along the Belt and Road, strengthening cooperation with BRICS countries, etc. Among them, stimulating exports by increasing foreign investment is an important strategic measure. According to the data, from January to October 2023, China has been in AfricaFinanceDirect investment increased by 17 percent year-on-year3%, of which rightThe Belt and Road InitiativeInvestment in the country has increased by 27 per cent. However, the export stimulus effect of these measures is still not compensated for globallyRecessionand the negative impact of shrinking demand in developed countries.
However, the recent arrival of good news gives us hope. Recently, globalCut interest ratesThe trend is strengthening. According to theCBNAs the global inflation situation eases andEconomyThe urgent need for recovery, many emergingEconomyThe body begins to adjustMonetary policy, leading to the worldCut interest ratesmore countries than interest rate hikes. The meaning and signal of this news is very important. Since March 2022, due to the appreciation of the US dollar, global currencies have generally depreciated, and in order to maintain exchange rates and assets**, many countries have raised interest rates, resulting in a significant increase in the number of central banksCut interest ratesNumber of central banks. And now,Cut interest ratesThe number of central banks has already exceeded the number of central banks raising interest rates, marking an important turning point. This means, globallyEconomyA big opportunity is about to be ushered in.
GlobalRecessionand the contraction in demand is mainly due to the post-pandemic periodEconomySlow recovery, unstable global political and security situationEnergy crisisand inflation. And globallyCut interest ratesas well as inflation easing will be globalEconomyThe recovery provides active support. For ChinaEconomyIt also means 2024EconomyA strong recovery is expected.
GlobalCut interest ratesThe advent of the trend is for ChinaEconomyThe development of the development brings new opportunities. On the one hand,Cut interest ratesLikely to boost the worldEconomy, increasing demand from developed countries, which in turn will promote the recovery of China's exports. On the other hand,Cut interest ratesIt can reduce the financing cost of enterprises, stimulate domestic demand, increase investment and consumption, and further promote ChinaEconomygrowth.
At the same time, China also needs to further increase its efforts to promote foreign investmentThe Belt and Road Initiativecountries along the Belt and RoadEconomyDevelopment and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. In addition, China should accelerate structural reforms through upgradingIndustrial chainlevel and technological innovation, cultivating new onesEconomyGrowth point, realizationEconomyStructural upgrading and transformation.
In short, globalCut interest ratesThe trend is ChinaEconomybrought a significant positive for China in 2024Economy's strong recovery has created favorable conditions. However, the challenges facing China are still severe, and it is necessary to work together with enterprises to increase reform and opening up, create a more favorable development environment, and achieve sustainable development and high-quality development.