Author: li, Kaka curator: mote
*: FBIF Food & Beverage Innovations
The next 10 years of beverages, the opportunity is in
Combined with the development process of China's beverage market and the current beverage market pattern in developed countries, we use inductive and deductive methods to ** the development trend of China's beverages in the next 10 years. China's economy will continue to grow in the next 10 years, and the urbanization rate, per capita disposable income, and education level will continue to increase steadily, and the post-90s and post-00s generations will become the main consumers. But on the other hand, in the context of downward pressure on China's economic development, consumers are more sensitive to shopping and pay attention to the health and quality of products. On the channel side, the offline "dealer-traditional retail" model is still the most important beverage sales channel, but the "new retail" platform represented by Freshippo, as well as emerging e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo and Douyin, will change the traditional way of selling goods, and may even gradually subvert the original market structure. The next 10 years of China's beverage market: 1. The scale of beverages will have a growth potential of 1 3;2、Sugar-free tea, ready-to-drink coffee, pan-functional drinksand other categories will rise rapidly;3、Carbonated drinks, sugary teasClassic beverage categories that occupy offline distribution channels will still be the mainstream;4. With the laying and improvement of cold chain channels, it is neededRefrigerated transportation and sales of low temperaturesproductswill rise rapidly;5. On the channel, niche categories will rely on interest e-commerce to achieve greater growth. 
Based on the above judgment, we believe that the next 10 years of beverages: we ** the next 10 yearsChinese per capita soft drink sales will increase by 3388%, which means that China's beverage market is currently 5831On the basis of the market size of 5.9 billion yuan (Euromonitor International), it has an increase of 1 3 and has a growth potential of nearly 200 billion. From 2012 to 2022, Chinese's per capita GDP increased by 1019%, up to 12,720$2, beverage sales per capita increased by 4498% from 4173 liters of people grew to 605 liters of people (Euromonitor International). According to the IMF**, Chinese's per capita GDP will reach $16,800 in 2028, with an average compound growth rate of 6 from 2023 to 202802%, if this growth rate is maintained, the per capita GDP of Chinese will reach 22482 in 2032$19. [36]Based on the ratio of per capita GDP growth to the growth of per capita soft drink sales from 2012 to 2022, the per capita soft drink sales of Chinese are expected to increase by 33 in 203288% to 81 liters of people. Compared with the markets of developed countries and regions, the per capita sales volume of soft drinks in Chinese mainland in 2022 is 605 liters per person, the per capita sales of soft drinks in the United States, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China and other countries or regions are. 24 liters of people. [37] For comparison, Taiwan, China's GDP per capita in 2014 was US$22,840, while per capita soft drink sales reached that year94.33 liters person, close to the aforementioned growth forecast of 81 liters. 
In 2022, Chinese mainland and the United States, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan.
Soft drink sales per capita and GDP per capita ratio**: World Bank, International Monetary Organization, Euromonitor International
Market share of beverage segments in Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan in 2022.
Data**: Euromonitor International, according to Frost & Sullivan, China's retail sales of sugar-free tea beverages are growing rapidly, driven by health awareness, with a compound growth rate of 32 from 2014 to 20196%。However, at present, China's ready-to-drink tea market only accounts for 13 of the seven sub-categories92%, and sugar-free tea accounts for no more than 10% of ready-to-drink tea, which has not yet become the most important category. [38] However, in Japan, the sugar-free tea category accounts for more than 80% of the tea beverage category. Itoen and Suntory launched a variety of sugar-free tea categories, such as raw tea, green tea, and oolong tea, which give consumers a wealth of choices in the matter of "drinking tea", and can even replace drinking waterIn the more rigid "thirst-quenching" scenario, sugar-free tea, which is mainly composed of water and tea leaves, can meet the needs of consumers who think that drinking water is "monotonous". 
Suntory and Itoyuan ready-to-drink tea product charts*** The data of Tmall supermarket in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Japan also gives good expectations: in 2022, ready-to-drink tea will occupy the main beverage category in the three markets of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Japan. 24% (according to the pie chart above), in first place.
One, second and first. In the next 10 years, sugar-free tea will replace the sugary tea category that was once "beautiful", and the market share of ready-to-drink tea will be raised to a range similar to that of Japan and Hong Kong, China. Nongfu Spring, Suntory and other companies that have been in the sugar-free tea category in the Chinese market as early as have seized the opportunity of this round of growth. In 2022, China's RTD coffee accounted for only 0 of the seven sub-categories in the Chinese beverage market44%, while in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, the proportion of ready-to-drink coffee has reached respectively. 37%。However, as mentioned above, China's RTD coffee industry has a compound growth rate of 193%, strong development. [32]
Japanese Vending Machine*** Akashi The growth of ready-to-drink coffee has benefited from consumers' pursuit of "convenience and refreshment". Long commutes and working hours have become the norm in modern society, thus giving RTD coffee the opportunity to grow for a long time. In addition, the expansion of ready-to-drink coffee will also be boosted by the rapid growth of convenient sales channels. In Japan, ready-to-drink coffee already accounted for 13% of the beverage market in 202266%, and this is inseparable from the popularity of vending machines in Japan. In 2018, Japan had 2.93 million vending machines, one for every 43 people, and it has become a habit for Japanese consumers to buy ready-to-drink coffee from vending machines to relieve fatigue. With the help of vending channels, BOSS Coffee ranks second in the sales list of Japanese beverage brands, with annual sales of more than 100 million cases. [39] China's vending machine channels also continue to grow, with leading brands such as Nongfu Spring, Yuanqi Forest, and Wahaha investing in the development of their own smart vending machines. According to Nongfu Spring's prospectus, Nongfu Spring has put nearly 60,000 vending machines in nearly 300 cities in China. [40] With the growth of demand for "convenience and refreshment", our ** ready-to-drink coffee will grow to be close to the market in Taiwan and Hong Kong, China in the next 10 years2%-3% market share。As mentioned above, classic categories such as carbonated drinks, sugary tea, and fruit juices are showing a downward trend, functional beverages are continuing to grow rapidly, and "pan" functional beverages are winning more market attention. In the next 10 years, we will develop our "pan" functional beverages with niche flavors and cleaning ingredients, as well as one or more health or emotional functions that can meet specific demographics and preferences. According to a 2021 survey by PwC, consumers are most concerned about the "taste, flavor", "ingredients, ingredients, raw materials", and "product features, selling points, and efficacy" of beverages. [41] This is consistent with the intergenerational characteristics of the post-00s generation who are about to become the main consumer group:The average proportion of people with higher education is higher, they have a stronger ability to discover information, pay more attention to the emotional value that consumption brings to them, and are more willing to try different life possibilities. 
As a result, consumers are more inclined to products that match their personal preferences, including "low burden", clean ingredients, and provide specific emotional value. This trend manifests itself in the beverage market in the sense that it will become increasingly difficult to find a "common divisor" that meets consumer preferences over the next decade. Conversely, products that target specific consumer groups and meet their specific needs will be more likely to win over the market. 
Xiaohongshu, for example, Yuanqi Forest, launched a new herbal tea product, "Freedom Water", which is highly sought after by young people. "Zizi Water" has three products: red bean barley water, red date wolfberry water, and refreshing mung bean water, with a clean and simple ingredient list and refreshing taste, which has attracted many young consumers with its health positioning. The health properties of "free water" are related to memory: red bean barley water, red date wolfberry water, and mung bean water represent the warmth and care of childhoodCapture consumers' demand for mood and wellness. The example of overseas markets also confirms this trend. Founded in 2018, the American sparkling water brand Olippop has won the favor of American consumers with its low-sugar sparkling drinks focusing on prebiotics and dietary fiber, with sales reaching $34.4 million in 2022. As of 2023, Olipop has completed 6 rounds of funding. [43] Therefore, our "pan" functional drinks will be a new category with huge growth potential in the next 10 years.
3) Channels change the way of selling goods and promote the growth of new categories.
In the next 10 years of beverages, the traditional offline "factory-distributor-retail" system still occupies the majority of beverage sales channelsCarbonated drinks, sugary tea, room temperature fruit juice drinks, packaged drinking waterand other classic categories will still occupy the main market share. However, the channel is being reshaped: represented by Pinduoduo and DouyinEmerging online channels, around the rise of brand chainingF&B channels, the membership store channel represented by Sam's, toConvenience stores, vending machinesRepresented by convenient retail channels, discount stores represented by Hi Special Purchase and Good Sale, Snacks are very busy, Zhao Yiming, I want to come, etcMass-selling snacks, as well as represented by Meituan flash salesJust-in-time retail...The rise of new channels will reshape the way beverages are sold in the future, and ultimately reshape the beverage category landscape.
1. Traditional retail channels: classic products will still occupy an absolute share.
In 2022, the proportion of beverages sold under ** in the whole market will reach the lowest in recent years, but it still accounts for 912% (Euromonitor International). In this way, the proportion of offline sales channels will not be less than 80% in 2032. 
Changes in the proportion of beverage sales channels in China**: Euromonitor International will still need to rely on the "factory-distributor-retail" distributor system in order to distribute its beverage products to large supermarkets, convenience stores, discount stores and small retail stores in the future. This also means that established companies such as Coca-Cola, Nongfu Spring, Master Kong, and Uni-President that have been deeply involved in the dealer system for many years and are well versed in local sales rules are still strong. In the next 10 years, traditional beverage giants will continue to maintain a dominant position in traditional channels by virtue of their strong ** chain and extensive dealer network advantages. They will consolidate their leading position by sticking to a low-price strategy, especially in the futureCarbonated drinks, packaged drinking water, iced tea, orange juice drinks, etcIn terms of categories, the market space will remain stable. 
Hema offline retail store *** Weibo @Hema.
2. Emerging offline channels: convenience stores and catering channels drive the growth of emerging brands.
In the next 10 years, we should also not ignore emerging offline consumption channels such as convenience stores and catering channels, as well as emerging beverage brands born based on emerging channels. In 2009, convenience stores accounted for 87%, with the trend of declining proportion of the entire offline channel, the proportion will reach 118%, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future. From the perspective of penetration rate, the average number of convenience stores in Chinese mainland in 2022 will be 4,751 people, a significant decrease from 7,033 stores in 2021, showing an increase in penetration. However, compared to 2,308 stores in the United States and 2,204 stores in Japan, the convenience store market in Chinese mainland still has significant room for growth. [44]
Fruit ripe sugar-free tea series product diagram *** Fruit ripe official website In convenience stores, consumers pay more attention to the convenience of shopping, pay less attention to brands and **, and are more willing to try new products in convenience stores. In the past,Genki ForestRelying on convenience stores opened up the sugar-free sparkling water market, and now likeWhen the fruit is ripe, it is so the main hitEmerging tea and juice brands driven by shelves are also expanding through convenience store channels to gain their own market share. The growth of convenience stores is also conducive to the expansion of low-temperature short-term beverages. Originally, the research and development of low-temperature beverage products such as fruit juice and ready-to-drink tea was limited by various factors such as short shelf life and the need for low-temperature refrigeration, which required flavor compromises, but the expansion of convenient channels represented by convenience stores solved this problem and also released the growth space of freshly squeezed and fresh low-temperature beverage categories.
Good Hope Water, Dayao Soda Product Chart***Tmall Supermarket On the catering side, the catering channel needs beverage products with anti-spicy and anti-greasy attributes, brand positioning and dining tonality. At the same time, in the F&B channel, consumers are more willing to accept products with higher premiums. For example, those that specialize in hawthorn juice drinksGood hope waterThe entire brand serves the catering channel from flavor to packaging design, and has made sales of 500 million yuan with a team of more than 100 people [45];Big kiln sodaThrough precision marketing in catering channels such as hot pot, barbecue, and snacks, this local soda brand is moving from Inner Mongolia to the whole country and is rejuvenating [46];;Grapefruit juiceThe brand grapefruit is locked in the scene of quenching thirst with food, and the annual sales exceed 400 million. [47] From 2019 to 2022, the chaining rate of China's catering industry increased by 77%, up to 207%, which is a rapid increase but still well below the 59% in the United States and 58% in Japan in 2021, and also below the global average of 34% in 2021. [48] Coupled with consumers' expectations for high quality and standardization in the catering industry, the chaining rate of China's catering industry will continue to rise in the next 10 years. This not only means that beverage brands that rely on the catering channel will have more room for growth, but also means that new brands have the opportunity to compete with traditional brands through the catering channel, or even overtake in corners.
3. Online retail: a voice opportunity for niche categories.
Online channels will continue to grow rapidly over the next 10 years, and changes within e-commerce platforms may even reshape the way beverages are sold. According to the Jiuqian Zhongtai database, the sales of packaged beverages on Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin are increasing year by year, with a total of 13.3 billion yuan in 2022, more than double that of 2019. Not only the overall growth, but also the evolution of online retail: Douyin is expected to surpass JD.com's beverage sales in 2023In addition to these three online platforms, Pinduoduo, which focuses on low prices and discounts, is also growing rapidly, and its market value is approaching that of Alibaba in November 2023.
Changes in sales of packaged beverages on online platforms.
Data**: Jiuqian Middle Office DatabasePinduoduo, DouyinTwo sales models that represent the beverage of the future. One is represented by Pinduoduo, the ultimate compression of the best way to gain customers, such a model beverage brands need to give up more profit margins, squeeze costs as much as possible, and rely on "low price and high quality" to win. One is represented by Douyin, backed by the live broadcast of the "interest e-commerce" model, this model has the advantages of "low price, instant interaction, crowd focus" and other traditional channels can not achieve, and this is precisely in line with the core needs of contemporary consumers who "crave emotional links, pay attention to core functions, and are sensitive to **". **, the importance of "low price" and "interest" has increased, the weight of product taste, function and cost itself has increased, the influence of brand and marketing has declined, and the competition will be carried out on the same starting line. Moreover, compared with offline retail, online retail has a lower barrier to entry, which creates opportunities for niche category brands to stand out. Prune juice, a niche fruit that has been selling well lately, is an example of this. On the Douyin platform, the core selling points such as "defecation" and "*" of prune juice will be amplified by "interest live broadcast" and accurately delivered to consumers with relevant needs, thus driving the explosion of this category and related products. According to the statistics of Xingtu data, during the Double 11 in 2023, the TIQ brand, which mainly makes prune juice, will rank second in sales under the live broadcast e-commerce category, second only to Nongfu Spring.
4) Opportunities to go to sea.
Chinese beverage companies have shown that they are "ready to move" in overseas markets. In the next 10 years, it may continue to make efforts in going overseas and have the opportunity to expand the market to the world. Globalization is changing from an optional to a mandatory option for Chinese companies. The successful expansion of new tea drinks to the sea has taken the lead in the packaged beverage industry. As of November 2023, Mixue Bingcheng has opened nearly 4,000 stores overseas. [49] Nai Xue's tea, Bawang Chaji, Hey Tea, Tea Baidao, Sweet Lala and other brands have entered the overseas market, and Hey Tea officially announced on December 8, 2023 that it will open its first store in the United States in New YorkLuckin and Cudi chain coffee brands have also entered Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea this year. In the beverage industry, in December 2022, Yuanqi Forest's overseas version of aluminum can sparkling water entered the top 10 best-selling list of Amazon sparkling water in the United States, and occupied the top three of the new product list, becoming the only Chinese beverage brand on the list. [50] However, on the whole, the development of China's beverage industry has not yet achieved significant results. However, China's catering industry has taken the lead in internationalization, cross-border e-commerce has conquered overseas cities, and the globalization of Douyin has provided new impetus for Chinese beverage brands to go overseasOn the other hand, markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa have brought huge opportunities for Chinese companies to go overseas due to cultural similarities, geographical proximity, or consumption growth potential.
1. Catering channels: seize the mind and build new demand for scene consumption.
Chinese beverage brands going overseas can take a free ride on catering going overseas. Since 2012, Haidilao has opened 115 restaurants in 11 countries on four continents [51];Xiabu Xiabu has established an overseas business department and plans to carry out a multi-brand layout in Singapore, Malaysia and other markets. In addition, various Chinese food brands such as Yunhai Cuisine, Taier Sauerkraut Fish, Grandma's House, and Yang Guofu have begun to explore "going to sea". The deepening of the globalization of Chinese catering enterprises will also directly drive the export of Chinese beverages. For example, Chinese students and overseas Chinese drank Wang Laoji and Vitasoy soy milk in overseas Chinese restaurants.
Chinese drinks drunk by overseas Chinese in Chinese restaurants***Xiaohongshu user @不二嘉、@贝奇在墨西哥.
2. Cross-border e-commerce: low-cost channels to fill the gap in the market.
On the other hand, cross-border e-commerce is becoming an important platform for Chinese beverage brands to go global. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the scale of China's cross-border e-commerce exports will reach 3RMB 2 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of 27% between 2019 and 2022. [52] As early as 2019, Yuanqi Forest joined hands with the domestic cross-border e-commerce Alibaba International Station. [53] In addition to cooperating with domestic e-commerce platforms, platforms such as Amazon, eBay, Panda Takeaway, and overseas online CSL have also provided new ways for many Chinese beverage companies to internationalize. For example, Yuanqi Forest has further expanded the U.S. market through Walmart Online**, Amazon and other platforms. [50] Wang Laoji has also entered online platforms such as Yamibuy and Amazon to accelerate the advancement of the journey of "going overseas".
3. Market opportunities: Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa.
In the next 10 years, the current geographical opportunities in the main markets of China's beverages will be mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and other regions. The total number of overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia is about 334860,000, accounting for 73 of the total number of overseas Chinese in the world5%。[54] Southeast Asian countries have higher cultural similarities and tastes with China, as well as the advantage of geographical proximity. On the other hand, the Southeast Asian market lags behind in the replacement of beverages, but also has huge consumption potential. Taking energy drinks as an example, Thailand's per capita energy drink consumption in 2021 was about 1 3 in the United StatesJapan, which is also an Asian country, also consumes nearly twice as much energy drinks per capita as Thailand. [55] It has also been reported that the rapid growth of manufacturing and industry in Southeast Asia has led to an expansion of the worker base, and the increase in the intensity of workers' work will drive demand for energy drinks**. 56] Dongpeng Beverage seized the opportunity to "go overseas" to Southeast Asia, and its products have been listed on e-commerce platforms such as Shopee and Chinese supermarkets. In addition, the Middle East and Africa will become a new growth point for many companies looking to expand internationally. In the Middle East, the demand for bottled water is growing due to poor tap water quality. In the case of the United Arab Emirates, its bottled water market is expected to grow at a rate of 1102% CAGR expansion. [57] In addition, the hot climate, the growing young population, and the rising health consciousness have also contributed to the growth of the local beverage market, such as the soft drink market in Saudi Arabia, which is growing at a CAGR of 856%[58]。Overall, the population of the Middle East is 4900 million, per capita consumption power is 3 to 5 times that of China;The Internet penetration rate of the six Gulf countries is over 95%, much higher than the world average. [59] The extremely high consumption capacity and fast-growing demand have created opportunities for Chinese beverages to go overseas in the Middle East. Africa is an undervalued market. This is despite the fact that Africa's economic growth slowed to 41%, which remains one of the most significant and fastest-growing regions in the world, second only to Asia. [60] Chinese companies have created a number of market benchmarks in Africa, with food companies represented by Angel Yeast generating 7100 million yuan. [61] Recently, Yili Joyday Ice Cream was also listed in Shoppers, the largest supermarket chain in the Tanzanian capital, and 65 other mainstream supermarket chains. As many African countries seek economic transformation and the rise of e-commerce and mobile payments, China's beverage market is also expected to explore new development opportunities in this market. Despite the maturity of developed markets, Chinese beverage brands can still expand overseas by adapting to local demand and partnering with multiple channels such as catering. For example, given that Australia has a large base of coffee shops (2160,000 units) and the rapid growth in demand for plant-based milk (up 48% in the past four years), the Chinese plant-based milk brand Fino chose it as the first stop for overseas expansion. [62]
Summary
Even if the beverage market is expected to grow by nearly $200 billion in the next 10 years, it will still be a very competitive market. Moreover, compared with the past, there are more market entrants, consumer preferences have become more complex, and channels are more diverse......The extreme segmentation of the market will make it more difficult to rely on traditional channel thinking or large-scale product strategy to launch successful products. However, on the other hand, the fragmentation of the market also means more opportunities. Brands that can seize emerging or segmented consumer groups, category iteration opportunities, and adapt to channel changes will have more opportunities to be noticed by consumers, and thus have a greater possibility to achieve market breakthroughs.
Authors: Li, Kaka.
Research: LI, Kaka, Archi, MICA, LEXIE, MIA
Curator: Mote
Guidance: Mote, Panda
Header image: Midjourney-generated beverage packaging, **Author: Mote
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