On December 21, the 2023 Annual Conference of Sina Finance and the 16th Golden Kylin Forum officially opened, with the theme of "The Road to High-quality Development in a Changing World".
At the theme forum in the morning, Steven Barnett, Chief Representative of the International Monetary Organization in China, Qiu Xiaohua, Chief Economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, Chief Economist of Jufeng Investment and Former Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Meng Xiaosu, former leader of the National Housing Reform Research Group, former chairman of China Real Estate Group, and "Father of China's Affordable Housing", Ren Li, chairman of Quanguo, Hu Xijin, senior partner of Far East Holding Group, Jiang Chenghong, chairman and general manager of Far East Electric, Wang Xiaofei, founder of Maliuji brand, Li Guangdou, a well-known brand strategy expert, CCTV brand consultant and founder of the brand competitiveness school, and Ma Jingfen, co-founder of Chucheng Manor, attended and shared wonderful views.
China's economic growth will be raised by 0 this year and next year4%
Steven Barnett, Chief Representative of the International Monetary Organization in China, said in his speech that the global economy has shown impressive resilience. However, this does not mean that the future is bright. In fact, the global economy is staggering, not running.
The latest from the International Monetary Organization is that global growth will increase from 3 percent last year5% down to 3 this year0%, next year is 29%。The global economy is experiencing significant damage from a series of pandemic-triggered shocks, which are often the most severe among those that are least resilient.
The International Monetary Organization (IMO) is expected to grow at a global rate of about 3% over the next five yearsAt the same time, the ** of China's economic growth this year and next year has been raised by 04 percentage points, with a projected growth rate of 5 this year4% and 4 next year6%。
In Steven Barnett's view, China and the world face the challenge of increasing medium-term growth, and the solution is to advance structural reforms to boost growth. For example, growth can be promoted. Economic integration has helped billions of people become richer, healthier, and better educated. However, global tensions are on the rise due to the surge in new restrictions. Research by the International Monetary Organization suggests that the long-term cost of global GDP could be as high as 7%. "The world needs to be the engine of growth again, not again. He stressed.
Qiu Xiaohua, Chief Economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, Chief Economist of Jufeng Investment and Former Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, delivered a speech) Qiu Xiaohua, Chief Economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, Chief Economist of Jufeng Investment and former Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that under external pressure, China's economy continued to maintain a growth rate of more than 5% this year, and China's economic growth rate continued to rank among the world's large economies. The structure, grade, and quality of China's economy are all quietly undergoing qualitative changes.
However, Qiu Xiaohua also pointed out that there is still a "temperature difference" between the performance of the micro field and the macro field. Although China's economy can grow by more than 5% this year, this is based on last year's low base of 3%. Therefore, the two-year average is only about 4%, and we should continue to improve;Second, at present, the final demand of our society is insufficient, supply is greater than demand in some areas, and economic recovery has not yet reached the ideal goalThird, many enterprises are still in a state of meager profits and losses, and we cannot ignore them and should continue to pay attention to them.
As long as we follow the tone set by the first economic work conference, 'seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, establish first and then break down', take high-quality development as the primary task, and take economic construction as the central work, I think next year's Chinese economy will continue to rise on the basis of today's temperature, and I think everyone can look forward to the prospect of China's economic warming", he said.
The property market, **Who will break out first?
Gong Fan, editor of Sina Finance, Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, chief economist of Jufeng Investment, and former director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Meng Xiaosu, former leader of the National Housing Reform Research Group, former chairman of China Real Estate Group, and "father of China's affordable housing", Ren Li, chairman of Quanguo, and Hu Xijin, senior person (from left to right).
Meng Xiaosu, the former head of the national housing reform research group, the former chairman of China Real Estate Group, and the "father of China's affordable housing", believes that the biggest blockage in the development of the national economy is mainly the real estate industry. **and**Affected by real estate, the downturn in real estate itself has affected more than 100 industries, how can the industry survive if it is not alive?
Meng Xiaosu said that in the case of a downturn in the real estate market, it is necessary to establish a new model of real estate development, which is to establish a special housing system, improve the housing market system and housing security system, and the shortcoming is the construction of affordable housing. In Meng Xiaosu's view, if the construction of affordable housing can be increased, the dual-track system can operate normally, and it can also solve the problem of whether housing prices can be reduced, which young families and new citizen families are most worried about.
Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, chief economist of Jufeng Investment and former director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said when talking about the real estate field, the deep adjustment of the real estate field has not yet ended, so the difficulties of real estate-related enterprises are indeed more obvious. However, at present, we have seen the right direction to solve these problems - China should use the transformation of the real estate model and the construction of the three major projects to promote the real estate industry to return to the road of stable and healthy development as soon as possible.
Qiu Xiaohua said that in the future, with the creation of a normal financing environment for real estate, with the recovery of confidence in the consumer side, and with the establishment and improvement of the two-track management system of the state for affordable housing and the market for commercial housing, the development potential of China's real estate can be further released and will move towards a relatively stable development track.
Hu Xijin, a well-known person and a "famous", talked about his views on the property market. For whether it should be the first to rise or the housing market to rise firstHu Xijin said that Lao Hu, as a shareholder, wanted to say, "Of course, ** should get up first". He pointed out that because ** involves 200 million people (** these people are unhappy and scold on the Internet every day, the whole environment will be scolded.
Hu Xijin also said, ** is very bad, which is beyond his expectations. But the state has really come up with a lot of policies, and at this time he has to believe in the country, so he has confidence in **, believing that it will be ** anyway, although he is not sure when, but he is willing to use time to buy his future gains.
Ren Li, chairman of Quanguo, pointed out that the property market seems to be on par, and everyone's feelings are just like the winter at the moment. But no matter how cold it is, you never doubt that spring will come, it's just that it's cold enough that we put on padded jackets. Therefore, although it is cold, there are bright stars shining in my heart, and I believe that the future is still bright.
How can the new generation of entrepreneurs do a good job in business inheritance?
Yuan Yiming, editor of Sina Finance, Wang Xiaofei, founder of Ma Liuji brand, Jiang Chenghong, senior partner of Far East Holding Group and chairman and general manager of Far East Electric, and Li Guangdou, a well-known brand strategy expert, CCTV brand consultant and founder of the brand competitiveness school, had a dialogue. (from left to right)).
Regarding the advantages and disadvantages of the family inheritance business, Wang Xiaofei, the founder of the Ma Liuji brand, said that he left the company in 2013 and left the entire catering track. It wasn't until December 2020 that a brand-new company was founded, "This brand-new company doesn't have a little ** from the previous elders or family members, and it doesn't have a penny of equity, it is a company with a new starting point." He said.
Wang Xiaofei emphasized that the new company has completely cut off from the previous in terms of business model, profit model, and future development. Going back to the old way is that the past 20 years have been in vain, not with the main goal of opening a store, the offline store is just a port for drainage, and the ultimate goal is to make a good product.
Jiang Chenghong, senior partner of Far East Holding Group and chairman and general manager of Far East Electric, said that the core advantage of the family business is that they are a community with a shared future, with both prosperity and loss, and will create business efforts and create value towards the same goal to the greatest extentHe believes that the biggest disadvantage of family businesses comes from the lack of talent, and it is possible that talents do not meet the demands of enterprise development. There is a great challenge to the topic of future corporate succession.
Li Guangdou, a well-known brand strategy expert, CCTV brand consultant, and founder of the brand competitiveness school, pointed out that the family businesses that have been developing stably for the longest time in the world are family businesses, and those century-old stores are named after individuals, and they are all family businesses. The advantages of a family business are in the best of the bestFirst, the cost of communication is very low. Second, the bloodline is stable, it is an ultra-stable structure that will not be destroyed, and it can be passed on from generation to generation.
Wang Xiaofei also talked about the recent hot Dong Yuhui incident, he believes that Dong Yuhui is a very good professional manager with the ability to judge himself, but because he is a literati, his work experience or business ability may not be able to support him to create a new and larger platform. "Because in the enterprise, in the society, the role of the division of labor should be very clear, some people are suitable to be presidents, but he may not be a good CEO. Some people are a good CEO, but they are not necessarily a good chairman. You can't deny the contribution of the whole team because of a momentary success, and you may not be able to build a very good company all at once by relying on one person. He said.
Ma Jingfen, co-founder of Chu Cheng Manor, talked about several suggestions for young people in her speech, and she said that people must pass the training. "Experiencing that hardships not only cleanse your soul, temper your will, and strengthen your determination, but also enrich your experience, stick to your ideals, and finally achieve the success that makes you who you are. Therefore, people must be tempered. She said.
Ma Jingfen also emphasized that one must know what one is living for. For business, making food is to be responsible for everyone's body, so we must do it seriously and steadfastly, so that everyone can eat it is good for the body, this is to know why we live, is to serve the people. "Although making money is self-interest, we can't make money with a clear conscience, and we must realize that we are serving human beings. She said.