By the end of the year, lithium carbonate** and spot** continued to fall.
* Market: Since last week's limit, lithium carbonate has begun to move again, and it continues to be deadlocked at the 100,000 yuan mark.
Spot market: The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 10 on December 26290,000 yuan a tonThe spot ** of some institutions fell to 990,000 tons.
This is the first time since 2021 that lithium carbonate spot** has fallen below the 100,000 yuan mark.
Lithium carbonate "collapsed" across the boardSince the beginning of the year, lithium carbonate spot ** has seen a "rout" trend, falling to 180,000 tons for four consecutive months.
From April to June, the spot ** had a short **, but then it was rapid**, and the current ** has fallen by more than 8% from last year's high.
However, even after the **, the decline of lithium carbonate does not seem to have stopped.
According to the analysis of the Industrial Research Department, the total production capacity of lithium carbonate in China will be 100 by the end of 202330,000 tons, according to the current lithium carbonate project capacity planningBy 2027, China's total lithium carbonate production capacity will exceed 3 million tons, and China's lithium carbonate market will still be oversupplied.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream raw material of lithium carbonate is lithium ore, and the downstream is mainly used in power batteries, energy storage and 3C fields.
upstream market,Mica mines** have fallen significantly, and Australian mines** are also continuing to adjust. Affected by the decline in lithium prices, the actual sales volume of Australian SC6 lithium concentrate in the third quarter turned negative month-on-month, and the lithium concentrate of Australian miners** decreased by 28%-39% month-on-month.
At present, the mine end is still the focus of the industrial chain, and the adjustment of lithium ore has directly led to the downward shift of the cost center of the lithium salt industry, and the cost support has gradually weakened.
downstream market,The lithium battery farm is in the stage of declining products, weakening terminal demand, and increasing competitive pressure.
According to the data, the benchmark price of lithium iron phosphate is now 47,00000 yuan tons, down 962%；Ternary 8 series materials are now **1640,000 tons, ternary 5 series material power type is now **1260,000 tons, down 15 percent from the beginning of the month56% and 2125%。
Under the influence, downstream manufacturers are in the process of involution, and in the long run, production capacity will be compressed, and some companies will be out.
The industrial chain is being reshaped at an accelerated paceIn the wave of price reductions, the bargaining center of the lithium industry has shifted downstream.
However, even if the lithium carbonate, which has brought greater pressure to enterprises, has appeared significantly, the pressure on the entire industrial chain has not decreased. Combined with the fact that the first quarter is the traditional off-season for sales, the midstream and downstream markets are still dominated by destocking, and the willingness to stock up has dropped significantly.
Demand is sluggish, supply is still not decreasing, and lithium carbonate ** is difficult to bottom out in the short term.
The profitability of lithium carbonate lithium salt products has been compressed, and the performance of related companies has also declined.
According to previous industry analysis,When lithium carbonate falls to 100,000 yuan, about sixty percent of lithium salt listed companies will face losses.
Low-grade mica lithium extraction enterprises and ore lithium extraction enterprises with low self-sufficiency rate will bear the brunt, and the phenomenon of production reduction and shutdown is being staged in some small and medium-sized enterprises.
According to statistics, a total of 8 lithium carbonate producers stopped production in November this year, involving a total production capacity of 4560,000 tons, mostly distributed in Jiangxi and Sichuan.
In contrast to lithium carbonate companies, downstream power battery companies are intensively repurchasing in the near future.
CATL announced a buyback plan on October 31 and spent 18.8 billion yuan to complete the first repurchase.
On December 5, Guoxuan Hi-Tech issued a plan to repurchase the company's shares, with a total repurchase fund of not less than 300 million yuan and no more than 600 million yuan, and no more than 34 yuan of shares.
Subsequently, Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, proposed that the company repurchase the company's shares with its own funds of 200 million yuan in the next 12 months.