According to the Associated Press on December 20, how global markets and the economy will surprise investors and economists in 2023 can be glimpsed from the dizzying numbers.
In a year of staggering numbers of all kinds, **by a large margin**, cryptocurrencies have soared, but none of them have beaten the drop of a single number that is exhilarating.
Inflation, the main culprit that hinders the global economy, is finally less "toothy and clawed" this year. It's still relatively high, especially considering that everyone has been enjoying the boon of low inflation for years before inflation in the United States soared to 9% more than a year ago. But inflation has now "cooled" enough to make investors expect rates to move into a downward channel in 2024. Globally, inflation is estimated to have risen from 87% to 69%。
Surprisingly, despite early fears that a recession in the United States might be inevitable, the country's economy remained strong throughout the year. For some time, there were even concerns that the US economy might be too strong, which could put more upward pressure on inflation, forcing the Fed to extend the duration of its high interest rate policy.
This has even led to some paradoxical scenes: reports suggesting that the economy is weakening (if not too much) is pleasing to Wall Street, because it is possible to achieve a perfect landing under the Fed. The goal is to slow the economy long enough to end high inflation without falling into a recession.
Now, with the economy still growing and expectations of interest rate cuts starting in 2024, investors are moving ahead of the curve, which is a stimulant for all markets. Globally** performance is generally positive. Americas, Europe, and Asia are all in.
Now, let's take a look at some of the numbers shaping global financial markets in 2023.
3.1%: The U.S. consumption index in November this year was 3% year-on-year1%。In June 2022, the U.S. inflation rate reached 91% peak. The Fed has set an inflation target of 2%.
2.4%: Headline inflation in the EU fell to 2 in November4%, well below the 106% peak. The energy of the month was 11 year-on-year5%。However, food inflation remains high, as high as 69%。
55%: U.S. used cars** started in February 2020** and peaked in January 2022 with a 55% increase. From January 2022 to November this year, used cars ***115%。
$4: In November, milk averaged $4 per gallon across the U.S., up from $3 per gallon before the pandemic in February 2020$2**25%.
161%: Argentina's year-on-year inflation rate reached 161% in November. The country** has taken a series of extreme responses, including devaluing the national currency by half, suspending public works, and cutting subsidies for gas and electricity.
22 months: The U.S. unemployment rate has been below 4% for 22 consecutive months. This is the longest period of low unemployment since November 1967 to January 1970, when the U.S. unemployment rate was low for 27 consecutive months. Even as the Fed tries to slow economic growth to fight inflation, the job market remains strong.
67%: In an October poll conducted by the Associated Press-Nock Center for Public Affairs Research, 67% of Americans disapprove of Biden's economic policies. If this sentiment persists, it could affect Biden's expected campaign confrontation with former Trump.
0.1%: The German economy shrank by 01%。The Bundesbank estimates that Europe's largest economy could shrink again in the fourth quarter.
1.1%: The world's ** growth rate is expected to be 11%, the sixth lowest in the OECD record dating back to 1980. In 2022, the figure is 52%,* The slowdown reflects the global economic slowdown, rising protectionism, and geopolitical tensions between some countries.
7: The ** of 7 companies contributed 2 3 of the S&P 500's 2023 (as of mid-December) returns. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and metaverse platform companies are also the most valuable companies on Wall Street.
27.3%: As of December 19, Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 27 this year3%。This is the Nikkei's best performance since 2013. In July of this year, the Nikkei rose to 33,75333 points, which is the highest level since 1990.
4.$30,000: Bitcoin** broke through 4 in December this year$30,000, while at the beginning of the year Bitcoin's ** was below 1$630,000. Last year, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies*** were hit by rising interest rates that hit what people saw as exceptionally risky investments
5%: As of Dec. 14, the largest U.S. bond had a combined return of 5%. As recently as November, the ** was on track for the third consecutive year of losses. But the excitement over the possibility of a rate cut sent bonds** soaring.
3 days: The number of days for the S&P 500** or at least 2% in 2023 is 3. As of December 19, the index was 242%。2022 was the best year, with the S&P 500 moving more than 2% for more than 40 days throughout the year.
5%: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note peaked at 5% this year, a level not seen since 2007. Bond yields have been on the rise for most of the year, only reversing sharply in the past two months. On December 19, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 392%。
7.88%: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the United States, in August 2023, the 5-year auto loan rate averaged 788%。This compares to an average of 5 in August 201927%。
21.2%: According to the Federal Reserve, the average credit card interest rate reached 21 as of August this year2%, up from 163% and 14. in 20216%。
3 times: According to recently released data, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates 3 times in 2024. From March 2022 to July this year, the Fed has raised interest rates 11 times.
4%: The ECB's current deposit facility rate is 4%. Like the US Federal Reserve, the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its recent interest rate meeting. Unlike the Fed, the ECB has not signaled a possible rate cut next year.
7.79%: Freddie Mac said the 30-year home purchase mortgage rate averaged 7 as of Oct. 26 this year79%。This is the highest level since 11 November 2000.
$2,199: In October, the median monthly payment for potential homebuyers applying for a mortgage was $2,199, up 9 percent year-over-year3%。
67%: As of September of this year, the percentage of U.S. homeowners with a fixed interest rate of 5% or less was 67%.
1.15 million units: As of the end of October this year, the number of existing homes in the United States listed on the market was 1.15 million, a decrease of 5 from October 20227%, about half of the historical average since 1999. Existing home sales fell 20 percent in the first 10 months of the year2%。