The "winter" faced by the real estate industry is a bit long and a little cold, and everyone inside and outside the industry is waiting for the season of recovery.
Recently, Standard & Poor's, an international authoritative rating agency, released a report entitled "China Real Estate Watch: The Property Market May Gradually and Slowly Recover in 2024", which brought some comfort to the weak market.
S&P said in the report that the good news for Chinese property developers is that the industry is about to bottom out.
The report points out that the continued introduction of policies to stabilize the property market will be positive for the high-tier market, and with the property market environment in high-tier cities potentially returning to normal, consumer confidence, home sales and ** have begun to stabilize.
S&P** said that there should be no more significant decline in commercial housing sales in 2024. The property market will begin a long L-shaped recovery process.
So the question is, if the real estate market gradually recovers next year, what are the strong support points?
1.The property market has bottomed out, and real estate has recovered in turn.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October this year, the total sales of commercial housing in the country were 972 trillion yuan, down 4 percent from last year9%。
Based on the average monthly transaction volume during the year, the annual real estate contract sales in 2023 will be 11about 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%.
Standard & Poor's said in the report that from the perspective of China's past real estate cycle, the annual sales of commercial housing in China may eventually stabilize at a support level of about 10 trillion to 11 trillion yuan.
This level of support, coupled with the strong intervention of the "visible hand", will prevent a stepwise downward trend in commercial housing sales.
And, given the double-digit year-over-year declines in both 2022 and 2023, it is less likely that property sales will fall significantly again in 2024.
Based on this, S&P expects contracted sales to decline by another 5% year-on-year in 2024, narrowing to 11 trillion yuan to 11 trillion yuan5 trillion yuan.
It is worth noting that first-tier cities will play a key role in the recovery of the real estate market.
According to the report, the stability of the high-tier property market may boost confidence in the low-tier property market. With the recovery of the first-tier property market, home buyers will have more confidence to switch to the lower-tier property market.
This assertion of S&P has been preliminarily confirmed in some cities in the Pearl River Delta.
Recent data shows that the real estate markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have shown signs of rebounding after the optimization of the purchase restriction policy and the cancellation of the price limit for land auctions.
Driven by the first-tier cities, the confidence of the real estate market in the surrounding low-tier cities such as Dongguan has begun to boost to a certain extent, and the transaction volume is improving at the same frequency as the first-tier real estate market.
In the future, with the relaxation of regulation in Shanghai and Beijing, the low-tier property market in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is bound to benefit from this.
2.The positive continues and market sentiment is starting to normalize.
Since the beginning of this year, the main line of real estate regulation and control has basically revolved around bailing out the market.
According to The Paper, from January to November 2023, more than 200 provinces, cities (counties) across the country have optimized and adjusted their real estate policies, and introduced more than 600 regulatory measures.
In November alone, 43 provinces and cities (counties) issued 49 regulatory measures. Among them, there are second- and third-tier cities that have canceled purchase restrictions, and there are also new breakthroughs in the first-tier property market in terms of policies.
While Shenzhen lowered the down payment for two sets and optimized the standard of ordinary houses, Guangzhou took advantage of the trend to open up the gap in the cancellation of land auction price limits in first-tier cities.
According to the monitoring of the Bogoliao property market, 18 of the 22 cities that have adopted the "two centralized" land transfer method have reinstated the rule of "the highest price gets". At present, only Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Ningbo are still insisting on the price limit of land auctions.
Not only that, in order to sell the house, more cities have joined the camp of "trade-in", and some places have even launched the "30-day no reason to check out" method, which is really very hard.
At this point, the previously promised policies should be exhausted, and they have basically been fulfilled. This kind of sincerity in bailing out the market has almost set off the atmosphere of the real estate market.
According to the data released on the official website, the real estate market in some cities is changing in a good direction.
According to the latest news in Guangzhou, in November, the city's second-hand residential properties were signed online a total of 10,182 cases and 102100,000 square meters, month-on-month and year-on-year. This is also the first time in 7 months that the number of second-hand residential online signatures in Guangzhou has exceeded 10,000 sets.
According to the analysis of the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Industry Association, the continuous growth of second-hand transaction volume has benefited from the relaxation of purchase restrictions in some areas, and the demand for housing purchases that were previously unqualified has been released one after another, while shortening the housing replacement cycle.
Other data show that since September, housing prices in Baicheng have turned from falling to rising, and have risen for three consecutive months. In November 2023, the average number of new residential buildings in Baicheng was 16,203 yuan square meters, 005%。
In view of the current **, the governor of the central bank, Pan Gongsheng, stressed that the market sentiment and ** of China's real estate market have begun to show signs of normalization and are close to bottoming.
3.Financing improvements, real estate companies get a respite.
As one of the major players in the real estate market, the operating conditions of developers continue to be regarded as a bellwether for the industry's prosperity.
The good news is that with the recent release of the "white list" and "25 financial articles" of real estate enterprises, coupled with the continuous development of the "second arrow", the financing environment of real estate enterprises has improved significantly.
The management's emphasis on meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, and not hesitating to lend, draw loans, and break loans for normal real estate enterprises, is a shot in the arm for private real estate enterprises.
Even companies such as Country Garden, which are out of risk, are also invited by the banking system to hold a symposium for real estate companies. This is a rare opportunity for cash-strapped developers.
After a short respite, whether it is the achievement of the task of ensuring the delivery of the building, or the land market to make up for the warehouse, there will be more confidence in decision-making.
The data shows that in the land market during the year (as of the end of November), the value of new equity of many leading real estate companies increased considerably year-on-year.
Among them, Vanke's equity added value was 71.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 60% year-on-yearThe new value of China Overseas Real Estate's equity was nearly 200 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. C&D Real Estate, Poly Development, Greentown China and other companies have also increased by more than 20% in the value of new goods.
This good momentum will also play a certain role in boosting the recovery of confidence in the entire real estate industry.
The most difficult time is over, and the bitterness is not far away, and we hope that this moment will come soon!