EconomyworkMeetingsis a highlight of the year,BusinessAerospace and low-altitudeEconomyThe appearance of givingEconomyDevelopment has given a clear boost. At the same time, however, someEconomyThe reform proposals put forward by the scientists have not been adopted, and this is when we need to clarify the matter. First of all, we have to sort out a point of view this yearPandemicAfter the first year,EconomyThe recovery has been very good overall, and the infrastructure is solid. For example, the rapid development of new energy vehicles, and mechanical and electrical products account for nearly 60% of exports. Our GDP growth rate is on the same scaleEconomyThe body is quite high, and these achievements are very proud. However, we should also see,EconomyThe recovery has not yet been satisfactory, and there are two main problems. On the one hand, the pace of recovery has not been as fast as expected, and on the other hand, the extent of the recovery has been uneven, and the recovery has varied widely across industries. For example, although consumption has recovered somewhat after a year of hard work, it has not reached the level we expected. The real estate market, in particular, has been very volatile, with a relatively lukewarm mid-year and end-of-year market. In addition, the recovery of private enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, has been relatively slow, and even some enterprises have not yet extricated themselves from their difficulties. This is not surprising, after all, different industries are opposedPandemicTimesAdaptabilityand speed, and we can't expect a full recovery in all industries within a year.
This year'sEconomyFaced with many challenges, some experts andEconomyScientists began to express concerns, and even made some important reforms. Among these recommendations, I have selected three of the most representative examples for analysis. For the first example, there is oneEconomyScientist inEconomyMeetingsOn the eve of the proposal, that is, the interest rate should be lowered directly to zero, as a way to activate consumption. Because it is difficult for people to earn interest on their savings in the bank today, which will affect their spending power. However, we have two minor questions about this proposal. First of all, Japan has been practicing zero interest rates for decades, has this led to the emergence of a low-desire society?Zero interest rates could theoretically regulate household savings into consumption and investment, but do we realise how much of a blow this may take to confidence?Secondly, the mandatory push for people to convert their savings into consumption does not actually provide the people with a scene and motivation for consumption, will they really consume in large quantities?Is this likely to spark a boiling of public resentment?The second example, there isEconomyScholars suggest a quick bailout of the real estate market, believing that it will be too late if it is not bailed out. This is a very typical big move, and the specific measures include liberalizing the purchase restriction policy in first-tier cities and even the whole country, speeding up the reform of the household registration system, and speeding up the migration of migrant workers to the city. However, the real estate problem is now not just a problem of real estate itself, but involvesEconomyand the question of faith. Therefore, we need to be in the wholeEconomyCoordinated solutions in the system cannot only solve a single problem. In addition, we have been working on de-bubble and risk-taking for many years, and a sudden easing of policy could triggerSystemic riskAre you sure it's a smart move?In the third example, a number of experts suggested that cash should be distributed directly to ordinary people. This proposal is not a big problem in itself, and it can even be said to be a good approach. But this is a matter of choice, whether to choose short-term stimulus or a medium- to long-term systemic solutionThe fact that this proposal has been mentioned almost from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, but has not really been implemented, suggests that the state has chosen to patiently address basic problems rather than short-term stimulus. Looking back at these three proposals, we can't help but wonder why none of these reform initiatives have been adoptedThe answer actually comes in this caseEconomyMeetingson,MeetingsAn important principle was proposed, that is, "establish first and then break". All three ultimates fall under the category of breaking, and they work on accelerationEconomyRecovery, but we're in it nowEconomyA period of transformation of old and new kinetic energy, transformation of old and new modes, and transformation of old and new technologies. At the same time, some problems have not been solved fundamentally, so our foundations are not strong enough, and there are even some weak places. If you rush to solve the problem at this time, it may be triggeredSystemic risk。Therefore, we need to first establish and then break down, solve the problem first, make the transformation of the old and new industries go smoothly, and explore a suitable development model, so that we can go more steadily and further in this special period.
EconomyMeetingsI was deeply impressed by the principle of "first establish and then break" mentioned above. In the experiencePandemicAfter the shock, oursEconomyIt has begun to recover gradually, but it still faces many difficulties and challenges. In the face of such a situation, we should not rush to achieve results, but should lay a solid foundation and stabilize the situation in order to ensure itEconomyDevelopment of long-term health. When implementing reforms, we should also pay attention to grasping the pace and intensity, and we should not act in a hurry, otherwise it may lead to more problems.
Also, I think inEconomyIn the process of transformation, we must comprehensively consider the recovery of different fields and industries, and we cannot take one side or the other. For those industries and businesses that are slower to recover, we should provide more support and help to help them tide over the difficulties. In addition, we should also encourage and support the development of emerging industries, and promote the transformation of new and old kinetic energyEconomyDevelopment is more balanced and sustainable.
In general, this yearEconomyworkMeetingsThere were many surprises, as well as explanations for the failure to adopt some of the reform proposals. We have to look at it rationallyEconomyThe achievements and challenges of recovery can only be achieved in the new era by focusing on laying a solid foundation and balancing the development of all walks of lifeEconomyStability and long-term development.