In the continuous momentum, the yuan suddenly appeared, and the maximum decline this week exceeded 500 points. Such a move has sparked speculation in the market about whether the trend of the renminbi is about to reverseWhat is the reason for the sharp fall of the yuan?
The change in the offshore exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar is an indicator worth paying attention to, and at the end of last week, the offshore exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar was at 71239, while this week there was a continuous **, and the lowest exchange rate fell to 71764, a drop of 525 points. This is very different from the previous weeks. In the past three weeks, the renminbi has risen by 899 points, 666 points and 264 points. However, the gains in the first three weeks have gradually diminished, indicating that the momentum of the yuan** is waning. So, will the renminbi's trend against the dollar really reverse?Maybe this is just a necessary adjustment, after all, after a large ** is a normal phenomenon.
It is worth noting that after the first three days of the week, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell again by 176 points at 16:15 on Thursday afternoon. However, the biggest uncertainty at the moment is the Federal Reserve's upcoming last interest rate meeting of the year. Although the Fed is widely expected not to raise interest rates again, there are still fears of surprises. In addition, the Fed's expectations for future interest rates will also affect the market's mentality, so fluctuations in the exchange rate market are inevitable until the end of the Fed meeting.
Although the exchange rate will be affected by many uncertainties in the short term, in the medium to long term, the key to determining the exchange rate is the economic trend of the two countries. According to the latest Caixin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the PMI of China's manufacturing and service industries both exceeded 50 and entered the expansion range, further indicating that China's economy is continuing to improve. At present, China's economy is experiencing a shift period, and the previous economic driving force mainly comes from investment and investment, especially infrastructure and real estate investment. However, due to sluggish foreign demand, China's export growth has been limited, and ** is no longer the main driving force. At the same time, China is also actively adjusting its economic structure and paying more attention to the growth of domestic demand. In the process of adjusting the economic structure, fluctuations are inevitable, and the exchange rate also fluctuates accordingly.
In addition to the trend of the RMB, the recent data on the share of global currency payments released by SWIFT has also raised people's thoughts. As of October of this year, the share of payments in dollars reached 4725%, although there have been fluctuations in the past two months, compared with half a year ago, the proportion of US dollar payments has increased significantly. However, this does not make it a failure to assume that the de-dollarization campaign has failed.
The main reason for the increase in the share of US dollar payments is the decline in the share of euro payments, which was once close to the US dollar, but now only 2336%。In addition, more and more countries are using their own currencies for payments bilaterally**, and other payment systems are expanding their use. Therefore, SWIFT only counts partial currency payments. At the same time, it should be noted that the proportion of payments in RMB decreased slightly in the previous month and is currently 36%, still ranking fifth in the world. But there are other reasons for this reduction, such as the fact that the range of CIPS payment systems is constantly expanding, and many payments do not go through the SWIFT channel and are therefore not counted. In addition, the application scenarios of China's digital yuan are becoming more and more extensive, which will surely promote the use of RMB in the international environment.
To sum up, despite the sudden sharp decline in the RMB in the short term and the change in the proportion of global currency payments, the RMB is still expected to continue in the long run**. While China's economy continues to improve, the renminbi will continue to expand its international influence. With the adjustment of China's economic structure and the application and promotion of the digital yuan, the yuan is expected to play a more important role in the global monetary system in the future.
The sudden collapse of the renminbi has sparked market attention and speculation, but it is only a necessary adjustment and does not mean a reversal. In the long run, the economic dynamics of the two countries are a key factor in determining the exchange rate. China's economy continues to improve, is in a period of economic restructuring shift, by strengthening domestic demand, reducing foreign dependence, the international influence of the RMB will continue to increase.
On the other hand, a change in the share of global currency payments does not mean that de-dollarization has failed. The increase in the share of US dollar payments was mainly due to the decline in the share of euro payments and was not representative of the overall trend. Although the proportion of RMB payment has decreased, it is closely related to the expansion of e-RMB application scenarios and the development of CIPS payment system, and is expected to continue to grow in the future.
Whether it is the trend of the renminbi or the change in the share of global currency payments, it is necessary to comprehensively consider various factors, and cannot draw too one-sided conclusions on short-term fluctuations. With the continuous development of China's economy and the deepening of reform and opening up, the international status of the renminbi will be further enhanced, providing strong support for the stability and diversification of the global economic order.