Written at the beginning of the article, I would like to share the three points I summarized after this round of property market retracement:
1. Stay away from the expected consistent transactions;
2. Assets that are too expensive are not safe;
3. Reshaping the housing price valuation system, that is, reshaping the proportion of location + product + school district.
Actually, I hate using induction, because the world evolves dynamically rather than linearly. For the game, each version has its own version of the hero, the game is updated, the son of the previous version of the version, in this version is not necessarily strong, and the same is true for real estate.
If you understand the above three points, please read the following content. On the contrary, don't bar, the bar is you.
Monkey mouth, these two words represent more traffic and controversy.
If there is controversy, there is our value, starting from the controversy, characterizing a plate, determining its value, and trying to judge it objectively in the noise.
In order to understand the monkey's mouth, it is necessary to start from two main parts -
1. Why was the monkey's mouth so popular for a while;
2. What is the underlying value of the monkey's mouth?
Let's talk about the part of the monkey's mouth explosion first, in my opinion, the explosion of the monkey's mouth mainly has the following points:
First of allThe threshold** is always lowWhether it is Greenland, Xiangjiang, the pioneer commercial housing, or the later Meilin, Guanhao, and the latest batch of commercial housing in the past two years, the first batch of Houzui has always maintained a relatively low state.
and the adjacent high-tech zone has a full ofPoor, which makes the development direction of Lianyungang look northward, and the monkey's mouth is the most easily touched block for buyers who just need and remodel, and the demand fundamentals are thick. If you want a more even, acceptable housing quality, acceptable supporting facilities, and occupy the direction of urban development, only Monkey Mouth remains.
If only the living side is good, the monkey mouth will not be able to reach the status of the king of the same price, and the monkey mouth will really reach the peak of the heat, yesPlanning of the geometric center of the city。(PS: The free trade zone will not be repeated).
This plan tells everyone that a business district comparable to the Xinhai New Area will rise in Houzui. At the same time as the concept of the geometric center was officially announced, a real estate company won a giant commercial and residential comprehensive plot, and released the Ole complex, plus schools, hospitals, and brand real estate companies settled in, and the Xinhai New Area started almost the same formula, adding infinite imagination to the planning of the geometric center.
On the basis of the unique location of the rigid demand plate at the same price and the compatibility of its derived demand, the thick demand base built up, on this basis, Monkey Mouth also gave a dream of a geometric center of the city, and this dream also had the blessing of top business, which made this dream extremely real at that time.
It is impossible for such a monkey's mouth not to be hot, and it is a waste of this extremely attractive figure at the same price if it is not boiling.
After understanding the bottom of the value of the monkey's mouth, let's take a look at why the monkey's mouth is controversial.
In the market, some people thinkPopulation importIt is the biggest factor hindering the future development of the monkey mouth. Is this an obstacle to the development of the monkey's mouth? Yes, but it's not just a problem for the monkey's mouth, it's a problem for all sectors. It is unfair to use the pain points of all the plates to attack the monkey's mouth individually.
Of course, the development of the monkey's mouth also has its own problems - the boardThe block cash is less than expected, and the industry landing is less than expected。It's okay if it's just that the planning and industrial landing are not as expected, after all, as we said, the more solid support of the monkey's mouth is actually more than the uniformity brought by location + low price + housing quality.
But herein lies the problem.
No matter how thick the demand side is, it can't bear it** Bombardment。In the past five years, Monkey Mouth has built six or seven thousand houses, which is comparable to the Wanda plate. To be honest, that is, the monkey mouth or Wanda plate, change to other plates, so many *** concentrated listings, it is estimated that the unsalable blockbuster is the final outcome.
Let's go back to the monkey's mouth.
Its value fundamentals are still there, the location is still that location, and the quality of housing is still in the leading position at the same price. Schools and hospitals have been put into use, and the construction of some projects has been delayed, but this does not mean that there will be no construction. It can be said that except for the school district, the uniformity of the monkey's mouth is still the king of the same price, and there is no one:
Cost performance is the biggest advantage of Monkey Mouth.
From another perspective, even if the school district cannot be opened in the short term, it is also the general trend that the premium weight of the school district is getting lower and lower at the moment when the birth rate is insufficient. As for location, as cars become more popular, physical distance may not be as important as imagined.
Especially inConsumption downgradeAt the present and in the future, if you can understand Pinduoduo vs JD.com** Luckin vs Starbucks, you will know the significance of the existence of monkey mouth in the property market.
In addition, the quality of some new homes in Monkey Mouth is far ahead. Different from other sectors, new houses and second-hand houses are two pricing systems. Most of the second-hand houses are old products from five or six years ago or even more than ten years ago, and these second-hand houses will of course affect the new houses, but they are not that big.
You don't know what's good without contrast. In the Lianyungang property market, six or seven thousand ** with monkey mouth is still a perfect match.
In the past three or four years, the monkey's mouth has indeed improved visibly with the naked eye, and it is the sector with the highest efficiency in the city's resource introduction and landing. The house price of Monkey Mouth did not meet most expectations, or the Wanda plate exceeded most people's expectations, not that Monkey Mouth was bad, or that the Wanda plate was good enough. Rather, it's because:
Dividends of the times.
The Wanda plate just caught up with the period of high economic growth, and the reborn monkey mouth plate was catching up with high-quality economic development. Sometimes, it's not that we're not good enough, timing really matters. Individual efforts are not worth mentioning in the face of the rolling torrent of times.