When will the 3,000 points be recovered this time? After 53 times of 3,000 points of defense, is it stable?
From the perspective of market participants, the start of foreign capital and the first protection of the national team, social security, insurance capital, tour capital, public and private placement, then the village can supervise the tour capital, public and private placement, the attitude of the village is very clear, 3000 points have to go up. Similarly, under the guidance of "active capital market", the policy is also very clear, and the national team, social security, and insurance funds will continue to flow in.
Personally, I think that 3000 points can still rise back, we are enough to expect all parties to form a real joint force, as long as 3000 points in this position to pull one or two more long white lines, ** faith will also come back.
At this point, the winning rate of A-shares has increased, the odds are higher, and there is more investment value. The economy continued to recover, PPI rebounded year-on-year, and corporate earnings improved; The Federal Reserve will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, global liquidity will turn from tight to loose, and the pumping effect of northbound capital outflows will weaken or even reverse.
Looking at the odds again, it is the profit and loss ratio, the upward elasticity is greater than the downward elasticity. The 3,000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index are on the long-term support line, and the space is relatively limited. The price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds = 1 The average price-earnings ratio of SSE A-shares - the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, representing the difference in the expected return rate of the two assets. At present, the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is at a historical high, indicating that the investment is more cost-effective.
Chart: The current price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is at a historical high
*: wind, as of 202312.12
In the first quarter of 2024, the market may usher in the "spring ploughing season", and the overall sentiment is expected to improve in the second half of the year, and the policy of active capital market will continue. From the perspective of style rotation, it is expected that the performance of value style will still be stronger than that of growth style in the first half of 2024, and the growth style is expected to be restored in the second half of 2024.
No matter how the market style rotates, deep value investing never goes out of style.
All the past is the cornerstone, and the bright future is the hope.
The big man is born, and the risk control is evergreen!
In 2023, focus on risks, safety first, independent and controllable!