As 2023 draws to a close, China's economy has recovered rapidly after the relaxation of epidemic controls, with GDP growth reaching 52%。However, revenge consumption and buying a house did not appear, on the contrary, ordinary people are more inclined to save money with revenge. Therefore, it is expected that a series of phenomena will occur in the first half of 2024: residents' awareness of saving money will increase, mortgage interest rates will be reduced, prices will continue, housing prices will be further adjusted, marriage rates will decline, divorce rates will rise, and the pension industry will usher in development opportunities.
In the first three quarters of 2023, resident deposits increased by 1442 trillion yuan, reflecting the increasing number of young people joining the deposit team. This is mainly to prevent the risk of emergencies such as unemployment, sudden illness, etc. At the same time, due to the current poor investment environment and limited high-risk and high-return varieties, people prefer to keep their money in bank fixed deposits.
It is worth noting that with the increase in residents' awareness of savings, they may turn to other financial management methods, such as purchasing insurance, ** and other financial products to achieve asset appreciation. In addition, financial institutions also need to actively introduce relevant policies to promote the diversified development of residents' financial channels.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the sluggish sales of the real estate market, mortgage interest rates have been lowered in various places, prompting the demand for housing to rebound. At present, the domestic mortgage interest rate has fallen below 4%, and in 2024, as the real estate market continues to slump, the mortgage interest rate is expected to be further reduced. This will be good news for buyers who are just looking for a home, as they will enjoy a lower interest burden.
However, as mortgage interest rates fall, home buyers should also remain rational, avoid excessive debt, and plan their repayment ability reasonably. It is important for individuals to choose the right time and way to borrow to ensure that they can afford to take out a loan.
Since China's economic growth depends on loose monetary policy, a large amount of money has been over-issued into the financial system, and some funds will flow to the commodity market. As a result, prices** have become the norm, especially for goods that are closely related to people's daily lives, and their increases are even more pronounced.
Domestic prices are expected to continue in 2024**. Therefore, it is recommended that everyone buy the goods they need as early as possible and stock up appropriately. After all, prices can lead to an increase in goods, and durable goods may become more expensive.
In 2023, domestic housing prices will show a trend of "both volume and price falling", and many cities will join the adjustment camp. In 2024, house prices are likely to continue this trend, giving buyers who just need to buy a home a good opportunity.
The reason for this is that many places have released "price limit orders", allowing developers to decide how much to reduce prices according to the actual situation. At the same time, the second-hand housing market has surged, and homeowners will take the initiative to reduce prices when they face problems. Therefore, buyers who just need to buy a home will usher in more choices and benefits.
Many young people are reluctant to marry due to the high cost of marriage. Expenses such as buying a house, buying a car, and wedding bride price put a lot of pressure on young people. In addition, today's young people tend to get married in a "flash marriage", and the two parties have known each other for a short time, and they are not familiar with each other's temper and personality. This has led many people to choose divorce, and the divorce rate has continued to rise.
This trend is likely to continue in 2024. For young people, they need more time to get to know each other and think carefully about marriage if their financial and living conditions allow.
China has officially entered a moderately aging society, and by the end of 2022, the elderly population over 60 years old has reached 2800 million people, and it is expected to exceed 300 million by 2025. This not only brings great pressure to the pension distribution, but also provides new opportunities for the pension industry.
In 2024, it is expected that more nursing homes will be established by ** and private capital to meet the growing demand for the elderly. At the same time, the demand for caregivers to take care of the lives of the elderly will be higher and higher, which will bring new development opportunities to the elderly care industry.
In the first half of 2024, a series of phenomena will emerge in our economy and society, which both reflect the current situation and problems, and provide us with opportunities to deal with them. The increased awareness of saving money will bring new investment directions to the financial marketLower mortgage rates will ease the financial burden on home buyers;Prices** will trigger a rethinking of consumption and savings;The price adjustment will provide more opportunities for buyers who just need to buy a home;The declining marriage rate and the rising divorce rate will lead to thinking about marriage and family;The development opportunities of the elderly care industry will provide better living conditions for the elderly.
As individuals, we need to be prepared to plan our finances and lives reasonably. In the context of residents' increased awareness of saving money, we can consider rational allocation of funds and find investment methods that meet our needs and risk tolerance. It is important for home buyers to understand the changes in mortgage interest rates and choose the right time and way to buy a home. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the impact of prices** and buy the goods we need as soon as possible. For young people, it is important to think carefully about marriage choices, not to marry blindly, but to think about more aspects, including economic and living conditions. For the issue of old-age care, we need to pay attention to the development of old-age care services and prepare for the old age life of the family.
In short, adapting to and coping with the six major phenomena in the first half of 2024 requires us to make personal plans and preparations, respond flexibly to changes, seize opportunities, and meet future challenges.