Thunder!The market value of Gree Electric Evaporated 13 billion yuan in one day!On December 21, Super White Magley Electric (000651SZ) suddenly crashed,** more than 7%, and its stock price hit a new low this year. From a technical point of view, this time it is a serious breakdown and a big fall, with a turnover of 388.5 billion yuan, second only to the amount of energy that fell on May 4 this year. This means that there is a large amount of money in the cost of shipments, referring to the trend of the past volume, it is difficult for the short-term stock price to have a greater improvement, which is equivalent to a "slap in the head" for investors who invest in Gree at a firm price!So, why did Gree Electric have such a tragic **?What is the background color of Gree's performance and fundamentals, and can it still firmly invest in the price?Let's listen to Xiao Miao's decomposition below.
Grievances from the past!Overlord hard bow
*From the Internet) It turned out that Gree Electric's ** originated from an acquisition. On the evening of December 19, Gree Electric Appliances announced: the company invested 1 billion yuan to acquire the subsidiary Gree Titanium 2454% of the shares, and 27 more in the next 12 months53% of the shares. This news has sparked widespread concern in the market and concerns among investors, what is going on?Xiao Miao will give you a science popularization of the historical entanglements in this. Gree Titanium is the previous Zhuhai Yinlong New EnergyMany years ago, Gree Electric Appliances led by Dong Mingzhu has been trying to find new growth points through diversified development, and Yinlong New Energy is a project that Dong Mingzhu is very optimistic about, and later she personally invested a lot of money and currently holds 1746%, Gree holds 3047%。It is understood that Gree Titanium is a comprehensive new energy industry group integrating lithium titanate battery core materials, batteries, intelligent energy storage systems, new energy vehicle research, production and sales and power battery echelon utilization. As early as August 2016, Dong Mingzhu and Gree Electric Appliances were full of confidence in the company's development prospects, and planned to acquire 100% of its shares for 13 billion yuan, but the transaction failed to pass the shareholders' meeting of Gree Electric Appliances at that time. The main reason is that many small and medium-sized shareholders strongly resisted, believing that Gree Electric did not focus on its main business and crossed the border indiscriminately, which led to the failure of this acquisition proposal!At that time, Dong Mingzhu was furious on the spot and threw out the shocking industry at the shareholders' meetingGolden sentence: What can you do if you don't pay dividends for 5 years?As a result, Dong Mingzhu used his contacts and resources in the shopping mall for many years, bypassed the shareholders' meeting, and finally acquired Gree Titanium (Zhuhai Yinlong). It is said that Dong Mingzhu spent hundreds of millions of yuan out of his own pocket at that time to acquire the equity of Gree Titanium. In the end, under a series of operations by Dong Mingzhu, Gree Electric Appliances still became the controlling shareholder of Gree Titanium. Dong Mingzhu tried her best to finally get her wish to get involved in the new energy outlet, and thought that she would lead Gree Electric to achieve the "second spring" of her career, but the reality gave her a big slap!After taking control of Greti, the development of the situation was beyond Dong Mingzhu's control. As of the end of 2022, Gree Titanium has suffered a loss of 1.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative loss of nearly 3 billion yuan in three yearsThe asset-liability ratio is as high as 99%.The net worth is only 23.7 billion yuan. In 2023, the situation worsens. According to the latest financial data disclosed by Gree Electric Appliances: as of the end of June 2023, the total assets of Gree Titanium are 2431.1 billion yuan, total liabilities 24.2 billion4.5 billion yuanNet worth is only 06.6 billion yuan,It means that Gree Electric's previous huge investment is equivalent to a waste. For Dong Mingzhu personally, the mess of Gree Titanium has also caused direct economic losses to himself. Dong Mingzhu has accumulated 23 in his personal nameWith an investment of 400 million yuan, there are only less than 30 million left, and the loss is more than 2 billion yuan!It can be seen that for Gree Titanium, Dong Mingzhu paid by mistake after all!I never thought that in such an insolvent mess, Gree Electric would take 1 billion yuan to acquire shares, what is the intention?It seems that Dong Mingzhu has evolved into "Dong Zetian", covering the sky with one hand!knew that this was detrimental to the interests of shareholders, but Dong Mingzhu still insisted on going his own wayThis is equivalent to her being unwilling to step on Regley Titanium, and she has to pull the listed company Gree Electric to pay during her tenure, which is really immoral, and the appearance is too ugly!
Hillhouse was pitted!Gree made a series of announcements in the early morning
*Originated from the Internet).
As soon as the news came out, shareholders chose to vote with their feet, and the share price of Gree Electric was **7%, and the market value evaporated by more than 13 billion in one dayIn the face of stock prices, ordinary investors are naturally very hurt, but the most worrying is probably Hillhouse Capital. As early as December 2, 2019, Zhuhai Mingjun, a subsidiary of Hillhouse Capital, won 416The sky-high price of 6.2 billion yuan obtained 15% of the shares of Gree Electric Appliances and became the largest shareholder. 
Top 10 shareholders of Gree Electric Appliances, data**: straight flush.
That is to say, Zhang Lei became Dong Mingzhu's new boss, and after the acquisition, the share price of Gree Electric continued to be the best, and Hillhouse Capital had already suffered a huge floating loss. As of December 21, the stock price of Gree Electric has accumulated **33 from the day of Hillhouse's acquisition72%。Hillhouse meets a management like Dong Mingzhu, and it is estimated that he has the heart to hit the south wall!
Gree Electric Month**Chart,**Straight Flush.
It is understood that Hillhouse Capital originally added high financial leverage to acquire itNow that all the holdings have been pledged, if Gree Electric continues to **, I don't know if Hillhouse Capital will be able to survive this winter!Of course, in the face of the stock price, Dong Mingzhu also "panicked"!Gree Electric Rare Announcement Late at Night!Late at night on December 21, Gree Electric suddenly issued two announcements, one is its latest performance forecast, and the other is a supplementary announcement on its transfer of Gree Titanium shares. At 1 o'clock in the morning, there are many performance forecasts, and Gree's operation is rare!The performance forecast shows that Gree Electric is expected to have a net profit of 27 billion yuan to 29.3 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 102%-19.6%, and the total operating income was 205 billion yuan to 210 billion yuan, compared with 1901 in the same period last year5.1 billion yuan. This performance alone is really good, exceeding market expectations. This made Gree Electric's stock price slightly ** on December 21, 224%。So, how should investors view the future development of Gree Electric?
Be cautious about Gree's long-term price investment
*Originated from the Internet).
Realistically speaking, after Dong Mingzhu took charge of Gree Electric Appliances in the early days, he has been really outstanding in the years of making Gree air conditioning sales market bigger and stronger. It can be said that without Dong Mingzhu, there would be no Gree today!However, in the strategic decision of Gree Electric's mid-to-late diversification transformation, almost every cross-border business ended in failure. The students still remember that the late investment guru Munger once commented on Wal-Mart and said: Past success has bound you. Now Gree Electric is also facing the same problem. Looking at the three major domestic appliance giants, Midea and Haier have gradually expanded their sphere of influence in the field of home appliances. Midea has completed its diversification layout through the acquisition of overseas assets and the divestment of loss-making business lines unrelated to its main businessHaier Smart Home, which once lagged behind, also relied on the new story of home appliances going overseas to fight for life in the capital market. Only Gree tossed blindly, failed to make mobile phones, and cross-border new energy was a fiasco. What's more, in the most critical field of air conditioning, Gree Electric has been overtaken by Midea since 2020!Until 2022, the gap between Gree and Midea's air conditioning revenue scale has reached more than 15.7 billion yuan, and this gap is still widening!
*: Sina Finance.
In terms of overall revenue and profit, the gap between Gree and Midea is getting wider and wider. In 2022, Gree's revenue will only be 55% of Midea's. The latest data shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, Midea Group's revenue and net profit were 2923800 million yuan, 2771.7 billion yuan, while Gree Electric Appliances had a value of 1558 in the same period1.2 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan!In addition, Gree's main business is too dependent on the air conditioning business, and it has not formed a horizontal expansion in the field of home appliances and improved the layout of the product line. Coupled with the future trend of population aging, as well as the current downturn in real estate(Appliances are downstream of real estate),This is not a good thing for Gree's main business!To sum up, from the perspective of ultra-long cycle, Gree Electric may gradually go downhill. Xiao Miao suggested that on the occasion of Gree Electric's "eventful autumn", investors should be cautious about Gree's stock price. Especially in the next 1-3 years, if Gree still has not found a business line with core competitiveness other than air conditioning, Gree Electric will probably no longer have a good price investment logic!The above analysis is for reference only and is not intended as an investment basis