Recently, the United States and Iran negotiated on the issue of the Red Sea shipping lane, and unsurprisingly, the negotiations ended in failure, or rather a strange situation only if they were negotiated.
The United States relied on the support of 20 countries to form a 20-nation joint fleet, accusing Iran of directly attacking commercial and civilian ships. Iran objected to this, saying that the attack on the United States by Middle Eastern countries was an autonomous decision to support and defend Gaza, and that the accusations of the United States were groundless. In addition, Iran has categorically rejected US demands to stop Yemen's blockade of the Red Sea.
As for this 20-nation combined fleet formed by the United States, it can be said that at best it is on paper, and there is considerable moisture. First, four countries sent only staff officers, two behaved inconsequentially, three countries led by Spain were categorically opposed, and eight countries joined the United States coalition fleet anonymously for various reasons, fearing reprisals from other powers or countries in the Middle East.
All in all, this combined fleet can be said to be of no practical use.
Recently, the United States and Iran have negotiated on the issue of the Red Sea shipping lane, but, as expected, the negotiations have not made progress. Even the Iranian side said that if the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, the Revolutionary Guards may choose to blockade the Mediterranean.
Although, given the strength of the Revolutionary Guards, it was practically impossible to blockade the Mediterranean, they were clearly not going to act aimlessly. So the question arises, what approach might Iran say about the blockade of the Mediterranean?
Personally, the most likely way is to seek outside help. Although Iran does not have the ability to assemble a fleet to blockade the Mediterranean, Russia has the strength.
At the moment, with Russia gaining the upper hand in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they are desperate to do something to restore Russia's international influence. Russia may send its Black Sea Fleet to the central Mediterranean if Iran is willing to become a political ally of Russia or join its military alliance.
At the moment, the only country capable of directly attacking the Black Sea Fleet is Ukraine, and other European countries do not dare to easily confront the Russian Navy, since Russia, as a superpower, has nuclear **. Instigating Ukraine to engage in a local ** war is already their limit, and they will not dare to directly confront Russia.
Of course, such a blockade would have more political significance than practical significance, since Russia could not really attack merchant ships. At most, it can only conduct freedom of navigation like the United States and play a political deterrent role.
In addition to Russia, there is also an agreement with Egypt, Syria and other countries to deploy long-range anti-ship missiles or drone launch platforms with the help of their coastlines. Through the advantages of the terrain, the blockade of half of the Mediterranean Sea is realized, and the no-navigation zone is created.
Although it is not possible to completely blockade the Mediterranean, the blockade of the Israeli coastal area and the impact on the waters around the Aegean Sea is enough to generate sufficient political influence. In view of the fact that the current military and political strength of the United States is far less than that of the end of the Cold War to the early modern period, the possibility that EU countries will exert reverse pressure on the United States because they cannot withstand the pressure cannot be ruled out.
Egypt, in particular, has a strained relationship with the United States and Israel, although many believe that Egypt is unlikely to join Iran in confronting the United States. Historically, Egypt has had wars with Israel for control of the Suez Canal, and even almost lost the Sinai Peninsula, and the United States has also created a food crisis in Egypt by various means.
Now, while Egypt is ostensibly neutral, this is only out of scruples about the strength of the US military. In fact, at present, Hamas is able to obtain ** through smuggling, and Egypt has turned a blind eye to this, and even helped to conceal it. If the United States weakens its grip in the Red Sea region, it is also possible that they will join. At present, shipping companies in various European countries do not see the ability of the United States Combined Fleet to solve the crisis in the Red Sea, and more and more companies choose to avoid the Red Sea waters. Some people in the shipping industry questioned what the coalition forces "can do other than shoot down missiles." Iran has managed to blockade part of the Mediterranean, which is enough to create a serious political rift in the European and American alliance. If the blockade is slightly expanded, such as taking advantage of the terrain in Syria and other places, and increasing the range of drone platforms, the losses of European shipping companies will be more serious, and the rift will deepen.
However, even then, the United States does not intend to take a direct shot. As the U.S. bottom line gradually lowers, Iran is likely to take more and more action. The United States is declining faster than anyone could have imagined. These possibilities I mentioned may also happen when they decline to a certain extent.
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