The upcoming year 2024 will usher in a wave of elections in more than 70 countries or regions around the world. Among them, the most interesting ones are the elections in the United States and Congress to be held in November, followed by the elections in the United Kingdom, India and other countries.
Although 2024 has not yet arrived, the West** has already shown some panic. "The Times", "Bloomberg" and other "newspapers" have pointed out that 2024 will be a year of "major tests of Western-style democracy", which may become a critical year that will affect the international political landscape in the next 10 years.
Trump has released some information about 2024, saying that if re-elected, he will "punish" China. On Trump's "revenge list" is a list of countries that "treat the United States inappropriately." Undoubtedly, 2024** may be more remarkable than 2016. Whether Biden remains in office or Trump "returns as an avenger", it will have a profound impact on China-US relations and China's development.
Trump's "return of the Avengers" may set off waves in the world in 2024. In his political speech, he said that if elected, he would expand his efforts to push for the subversion of existing U.S. policies during his first term, including pushing for "new tariffs on almost all imports," with a special emphasis on tariffs on China. This suggests that Trump plans to impose a "map cannon" by imposing tariffs on all countries that export to the United States, including banning Chinese imports of electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals, and preventing Chinese companies from participating in U.S. energy or technology infrastructure.
During the Trump administration, although he tried to achieve decoupling between China and the United States, the amount of China and the United States continued to rise against the trend. In addition, some studies have pointed out that Trump's imposition of tariffs on washing machines in China and the United States, while creating some jobs, is costly, and consumers pay for it
Trump's return could lead to a weakening of U.S.-Ukraine relations, renewed tensions between the U.S. and allies in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the possibility of intensifying Sino-U.S. tensions. Trump may also make a reversal of the US institutions and related personnel, which will have a disastrous impact on the US structure, the domestic political system, and the global hegemonic system.
With regard to the United States and China**, the existing structural interdependence is difficult to change. Trump's policy propositions threaten to pit all countries that do business with the United States. In addition, Trump's Taiwan policy could spark tensions in the run-up to the Taiwan elections in China.
In the 2024 global elections, the UK could end the 14-year history of the Conservative Party, while the European Parliament elections will determine support and misgivings about China. If Trump returns, Europe may be more inclined to cooperate with China, providing possible opportunities for Sino-European relations. Next year's election wave will undoubtedly profoundly change the world landscape, and the answer will be revealed in the future.
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