In general, 10In fact, from the data, since October, the export of daily necessities and Christmas peripheral products has rebounded steadily, but it is obvious that the preheating of this year's Christmas season is not as expected, presumably due to the transfer of the industrial chain, the cargo turnover cycle is extended, and the Christmas effect on China is released in advance to August.
In November, China's import and export was 37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 3796 trillion yuan, the same as the same period last year. Of these, export 216 trillion yuan, an increase of 03%；Import 1636 trillion yuan, down 05%；* Surplus 524 trillion yuan, an expansion of 28%。In dollar terms, in the first 11 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 5$41 trillion, down 56%。Among them, export 308 trillion dollars, down 52%；Import 2$33 trillion, down 6%;* Surplus 7481$300 million, narrowed by 27%。
In November, China's import and export 37 trillion yuan, an increase of 12%。Among them, export 21 trillion yuan, an increase of 17%；Import 16 trillion yuan, an increase of 06%；* Surplus 4908200 million yuan, an expansion of 55%。In US dollar terms, China's imports and exports are 5154$700 million, unchanged from the same period last year. Of these, exports 2919$300 million, an increase of 05%；Import 2235$400 million, down 06%；* Surplus 683US$900 million, an increase of 4%.
China's exports continued to recover, and the year-on-year growth rate turned positive in November, from a month-on-month perspective, the month-on-month growth in November this year was much higher than the month-on-month in November 2022, in line with the seasonality, but there is still a certain gap between the performance of the same period in 2020 and 2021. Splitting the monthly export volume, the export volume in November this year was only lower than in 2021.
Data**: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.
Data**: Wind, Ping An** Research Institute.
Data**: wind
According to regional divisions, exports to the "Belt and Road" countries increased year-on-year, and imports to the remaining major countries decreased year-on-year. According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months, ASEAN was China's largest partner, and the total value of China and ASEAN was 58 trillion yuan, an increase of 01%, accounting for 15% of China's total foreign trade value3%。Among them, exports to ASEAN 333 trillion yuan, down 01%。The EU is the second largest partner, and the total value between me and the EU is 503 trillion yuan, down 22%, accounting for 132%, of which, exports to the EU 322 trillion yuan, down 58%。The United States is the third largest partner, and the total value of China and the United States is 426 trillion yuan, down 69%, accounting for 112%, of which 3 were exported to the United States21 trillion yuan, down 85%。Japan is the fourth largest partner, and the total value of China and Japan is 204 trillion yuan, down 62%, accounting for 54%。Among them, 1 was exported to Japan01 trillion yuan, down 33%。During the same period, China's total imports and exports to the "Belt and Road" countries were 1765 trillion yuan, an increase of 26%, of which, exports 97 trillion yuan, an increase of 69%。
Data**: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.
Mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 6% of exports, of which mobile phones and automobiles increased exports. Customs data show that in the first 11 months, China exported 1266 trillion yuan, an increase of 28%, accounting for 58% of the total export value6%。Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts 12 trillion yuan, down 172%；Mobile 8852500 million yuan, an increase of 33%；Car 6529200 million yuan, an increase of 796%。During the same period, the export of Laomi products 373 trillion yuan, down 26%, accounting for 173%。Among them, clothing and clothing accessories 102 trillion yuan, down 33%；Textiles 8655700 million yuan, down 37%；Plastic products 6391300 million yuan, an increase of 05%。Export of agricultural products 6286500 million yuan, an increase of 66%。
Data**: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.
Data**: Wind, Ping An** Research Institute.
The import and export of private enterprises maintained growth. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months, private enterprises imported and exported 2024 trillion yuan, an increase of 61%, accounting for 53% of China's total foreign trade value3%, an increase of 3 over the same period last year1 percentage point, of which, exports 1362 trillion yuan, an increase of 53%, accounting for 63% of the total export value. State-owned enterprises import and export 608 trillion yuan, down 08%, accounting for 16% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, export 172 trillion yuan, an increase of 04%；Import 436 trillion yuan, down 12%。During the same period, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises was 1154 trillion yuan, down 9%, accounting for 30 percent of China's total foreign trade value4%。Of these, export 623 trillion yuan, down 93%；Import 531 trillion yuan, down 87%。
Data**: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.
Overall, according to Ping An**'s analysis, the recovery of China's exports in November was driven by three factors: first, the marginal recovery of the global consumer electronics industry chain, and mechanical and electrical products were the main driver of the rebound in China's export growthSecond, the overseas consumption season has driven Chinese goods to go overseas, and the U.S. exports to China have turned from a drag to a pull, or thanks to the strong performance of Chinese goods and overseas e-commerce platforms in the U.S. "Black Friday" consumption season;Third, from the perspective of the leading lagging relationship of the first index and the first commodities that have been announced, the drag on China's exports in November may be slowed down.
On November 30, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles released the "Analysis of China's Apparel Exports from January to October 2023", according to the statistics of China Customs, from January to October this year, China's clothing exports totaled 1,334800 million US dollars, down 88%。Exports in the month of October were 122600 million US dollars, down 89%。Among them, mainly affected by factors such as sluggish international demand and a high base in the first half of last year, clothing exports are still sluggish.
U.S. non-manufacturing imports have maintained a trend in recent months, but were released on November 30In November, China's new non-manufacturing PMI export orders and China's manufacturing PMI new export orders have been under the boom and wither line for three consecutive months and are still negativePreliminary inference,External demand has improved, but it has not yet passed on the prosperity index that affects China's export orders。The fourth quarter of the calendar year is the peak season for overseas Christmas consumption, which can be seen from the Baltic Dry Bulk Index, every year since October, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index will have a seasonal rise, from the recent data, the demand in overseas areas has improved compared with 2022, but from the Chinese export container freight index, it can be seen that the current container freight level is at a low level, and the export shipping boom is not good.
In terms of sub-regions, exports to the United States returned to the growth range, the European Union continued to weaken, and ASEAN improvedExports to Russia remained resilient, and exports to India and Africa improved significantly.
According to an interview with CCTV reporters, as of the end of November, the commodity procurement work of European and American countries in 2023 for the year-end shopping season has ended, and most of the goods have also arrived in the destination country. Among them, household products such as warm products, Christmas products, and scented candles are the most popular among buyers and overseas consumers. According to the statistics of Xiamen Customs, from January to October, Fujian Province exported a total of 88 toys200 million yuan, of which 13 were exported in October400 million yuan, an increase of 12 percent month-on-month6%。According to an interview with a reporter from Fujian, Huang Baozhu, director of the marketing center of Zhangzhou Enyang handicrafts, said, "From August to November every year, the company's orders for Christmas toys and related handicrafts are endless, and the workshop is basically in full production, and several production lines are started at the same time"."This year's overseas sales of products are generally good, and the sales volume has increased by nearly two percent compared with the same period last year, and the next orders have been scheduled for next spring. It is worth noting that from January to October, the value of toys exported by Fujian Province to the "Belt and Road" countries reached 40100 million yuan, accounting for nearly half of the total value of toy exports in the province in the same period. You Zumao, general manager of Fujian Maoyuan Arts & Crafts, a toy manufacturer and seller, said: "We are very optimistic about the potential of foreign toy consumption, especially the broader market of the 'Belt and Road' countries. We hope to bring new momentum to our own development by re-arranging new overseas markets, adjusting R&D and production plans as needed, and seizing export opportunities. ”
Data**: wind
Judging from the latest data released by the Ministry of Information Services in December, Vietnam, India, Turkey and other countries have achieved growth in exports, reflecting signs of recovery in global demand.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the total value of merchandise imports and exports in October reached about 616$200 million, an increase of 41%, a year-on-year increase of 56%。In terms of merchandise exports, in October, the value of merchandise exports has rebounded, reaching about US$32.3 billion, an increase of 53%。
Japan's Ministry of Health, Finance and Welfare released data showing that Japan's exports increased by 1 year year-on-year in October6% to 9$14 trillion, compared to a 4 percent increase in exports in September3%。
India's merchandise exports rose 6 percent in October, data released by India ** showed21% to 335$700 million.
Turkey's exports increased by 7 percent in October this year compared to the same period last year, according to data released by the Ministry of Turkey**4% to $22.9 billion, which allowed Turkey to reach the highest export value in history in October.
Indonesia's ** Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that exports in October were 221$500 million, an increase of 676%, down 1043%。
According to the latest foreign trade data released by Cambodian Customs, in the first 10 months of this year, Cambodia's foreign trade volume was 386600 million US dollars, down 3% year-on-year, in the first 10 months, Cambodia exported a total of 185900 million US dollars, compared with 185 billion last year$500 million increased slightly by 02%；
Judging from the above data, there are various reasons for the decline in China's economic and trade data with developed economies. In the post-pandemic era,The global economy remains fragile and throughout 2023 shows that it has been a year of weak recovery, with "mediocrity" running through the second half of the year, but recently the global economy has entered a phase of accelerated recovery. The loose environment in the early stage led to the overheating of the U.S. economy, the Fed's continued interest rate hikes have caused the consumption power of the American people to continue to decline, and Europe and the United States are in a destocking cycle, in this case, it is normal for Europe and the United States to reduce imports from China. Geopolitical events such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have had a negative impact on the convenience and safety of cargo transportation.
Under the tone of high-quality development, the "Black Friday" and Christmas dividends may be released in advanceJudging from the recent performance of foreign trade, China's foreign trade structure is undergoing transformation. For more than 20 years, the demographic dividend has pushed China's manufacturing industry to the top of the spear, howeverIn the context of rising Chinese costs, attention to the protection of the ecological environment, and the transformation of the industrial chain structure, China has chosen to upgrade to high value-added products and services, which has caused a different performance in foreign trade data than in the past.
According to the description in an article in The Economist in August of this year titled "Biden's China Strategy Doesn't Work",Although the United States wants to reduce its dependence on Chinese manufacturing, in reality, this dependence is "intact".。The article mentions that in 2018, about 66% of the goods imported by the United States from "low-cost" Asian countries came from China, and in 2022 this figure became about 50%, of which these "low-cost" orders gradually shifted to India, Southeast Asian countries, etc. Judging from the data, the U.S. policy has achieved some results, but a large part of the truth behind the change in the data is that while the U.S. transfers these orders from China to other countries, the countries that receive U.S. orders transfer orders to China.
More than ten years ago, the small goods and clothes brought back by relatives and friends studying in Europe were marked with the words "made in China", and now friends studying abroad find that many clothes are printed with "made in cambodian" and "made in vietnam". India has also benefited from the decline in "Made in China", and the production of iPhones in India has been increasing in recent years, according to a recent study by Counterpoint India's Monthly Tracker of Smartphones, although Apple hit a new quarterly shipment record in the third quarter of 2023 (July to September), exceeding 2.5 million units, especially the Apple 15 series, a large part of its standard and plus versions have a large part of its production capacity in Indian factories. In 2020, iPhones made in India accounted for only 13%, but it will rise to 4% in 2022 and is expected to rise to 7% in 2023, but the demand for iPhone-related electronic components imported from China will also increase as the upstream parts required for iPhone assembly are still mainly produced in China. In fact, it can be understood that "Made in China" went to Southeast Asia to "change the skin".
Comparing the pre-epidemic and latest import and export data, it can be found that from January to October 2019, the European Union (including the United Kingdom) was China's largest exporter, followed by the United States, and the third was Southeast Asia, and now Southeast Asia has become China's largest export region. On the one hand, this trade-off is due to the fact that Southeast Asia is repeating the path of China 20 years ago, with the advancement of industrializationOn the other hand, because the market size in Southeast Asia is expanding, orders from the European and American markets have been transferred, but because of the lack of productivity due to the current infrastructure constraints in Southeast Asia, the final order acceptance terminal is still China.
According to customs statistics, in the first eight months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 2708 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 01%。Of these, exports 1547 trillion yuan, an increase of 08%；Import 1161 trillion yuan, down 13%；In August this year, China's import and export 359 trillion yuan, down 25%, an increase of 39%。Among them, export 204 trillion yuan, down 32%, an increase of 12%。In September 2023, the total value of China's imports and exports was 5205500 million US dollars, down 62%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from August. Of these, exports 2991300 million US dollars, down 62%, the decline narrowed by 22 percentage points;In September, China's exports increased by 5 compared with August0%, significantly higher than the historical average month-on-month growth rate in September since 2010 (16%）。In August and September this year, the import and export performance was good, which is due to the transfer of the industrial chain, resulting in the extension of the cargo turnover cycle, such as the processing of goods and the freight cycle needs one to three months, the original Europe and the United States directly from China to order in response to the Christmas boom only need to start from September, but if Southeast Asia is needed for secondary processing and turnover, Chinese manufacturers will receive orders as early as June, in August, September to Southeast Asia.
Data**: Wind, Guotai Junan ** Research Institute.
The upgrading of the industrial chain continues to advance, and there is still room for flexibility in exportsThe growth of China's exports to developing countries and the decrease in exports to developed countries led by the United States, the transfer of this industry is only the transfer of assembly business, and the upgrading of such industrial chains does not affect China's overall export prospects. The reason for the economic leadership of developed countries comes from the exchange of resources with the vast number of developing countries around the world, through the export of industrial products and service products of the highest value, in exchange for raw materials and cheap industrial products of developing countries, so as to enhance the accumulation of wealth in terms of utility. Therefore, the market often forms a fixed perception that the market in developed countries is highly profitable and has strong purchasing power, thereby increasing investment in the markets of developed economies, but ignoring the fact that the markets of developing countries have more potential and profit margins.
Since 2023,The global economy has gradually entered the recovery stage, but the overall recovery momentum is insufficient, superimposed by geopolitical conflicts, and the global "reshuffle" of the chain structure continue to impact the confidence of consumers and entrepreneurs. WTO economists expect global merchandise volumes to grow by 08%, compared to an increase of 1 in April**7%, which shows that the overall global economic situation is not optimistic, and the shrinkage of China's exports is unavoidable.
On November 29, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report, expecting global economic growth to slow slightly in 2024, but the risk of a hard landing for the global economy has diminished.
Against the backdrop of the global economic recession and declining foreign demand, China and the Belt and Road countries have established a community with a shared future, and the two sides are open and inclusive, win-win cooperation, and mutual learning, which has established a good platform for foreign trade expansion. The easing of Sino-US relations has also brought flexibility to exports, but it is still necessary to be vigilant against the phenomenon of weakening the marginalization of Chinese-funded products exported to the United States.
This article was first published in Ti **app, written by Li Jingying).
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