Today, according to information from the Chinese Sea, the Chinese Coast Guard has taken control measures against three Philippine ships in the waters near Scarborough Shoal. Officials did not elaborate on the extent of the so-called "control measures". But the author speculates that this may be more severe than forcibly driving away Philippine ships, or perhaps a kind of encirclement-like measure.
However, less than 24 hours after the Scarborough Shoal incident, the Philippines launched another forcible intrusion into China's Ren'ai Jiao. That sparked speculation about whether it was retaliation by the Philippines or its displeasure with the Chinese coast guard's meddling in the reefs, which led to two attempts to engage China in the South China Sea.
According to reports, on December 10, at least four ships, including two Philippine coast guard vessels, an official ship and a supply vessel, attempted to forcibly go to Second Thomas Shoal, illegally carrying building materials, violating China's sovereignty. The Chinese Coast Guard quickly took control measures in accordance with laws and regulations, but unexpectedly, the Philippine side took an extremely tough attitude, not only did not heed China's warning, but at about 6:30 a.m., a Philippine ship suddenly rushed towards the Chinese coast guard ship 21556 at high speed, resulting in a collision at sea, and the Chinese coast guard ship was damaged to varying degrees.
According to South China Sea Strategic Perception, the collision was caused by the Philippine vessel's sudden and unprofessional and dangerous ramming of the Chinese ship in an unprofessional and dangerous manner during a confrontation with the Chinese coast guard vessel.
In the Scarborough Shoal incident on December 9, three Philippine ships were "baptized" by Chinese coast guard water cannons when they provoked. However, in the Ren'ai Jiao incident, the Philippine ship became more aggressive and even took action to collide, causing damage to the Chinese coast guard vessel. This may be revenge for the defeat of the previous day.
In this regard, the author speculates that the Philippine behavior may be a response to the failure of the previous day. In the Scarborough Shoal incident, the Chinese coast guard used water cannons against Philippine vessels, but the radar equipment on the Philippine ship was destroyed. Dozens of Philippine ships confronted two Chinese coast guard ships, but the Philippines was unable to fight back due to the tonnage and equipment advantages of the Chinese coast guard ships.
The Philippines may rely on the support of the United States to dare to provoke China. The United States has been trying to intervene in the South China Sea to contain China, taking advantage of the Philippines' contradictions with China. But if the U.S. does intervene, the Chinese coast guard may be outnumbered, so the Chinese navy should be deployed in advance to deal with potential military threats.