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Song Qinghui
At the end of the year, the overall performance of A-shares this year is both unexpected and reasonable. Under the stimulus of various policies of the regulatory authorities, financial liquidity accurately supports the real economy, and A-shares still underperform in the context of the economic situation in line with expectations. This performance of A-shares is no surprise to old shareholders. The positive is not sustainable, the lack of sustainable momentum, the lack of market confidence and other problems, A-shares always seem to have more than enough to do. People are hoping that A-shares will get better. On February 1 this year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited opinions from the public on the full implementation of the main system rules of the issuance registration system, which marked the official launch of the reform of the issuance registration system, and many market analysts believe that this reform will further improve the basic system of the capital market, improve market transparency and efficiency, and promote the healthy development of the market. On April 10, the first batch of 10 companies listed on the main board of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, market analysis believes that this marks the full implementation of the reform of the first issuance registration system, which will help optimize the market structure and provide investors with a more fair and just investment environment. However, judging from the main stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen, the Shanghai Composite Index has been ** after April this year, but the follow-up momentum is insufficient, once falling from above 3,300 points to above 2,900 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index has fallen all the way after the registration system has been implemented. Of course, the implementation of the registration-based system is not the reason for the continued downturn in A-shares, such as the slowdown in global economic growth and rising inflationary pressures, which have led to a decline in investors' demand for risky assets, which has a continued negative impact on A-sharesGeopolitical tensions and uncertainties in many places have put pressure on global markets and continued to have a negative impact on A-sharesThe depreciation of the renminbi during the year also brought some pressure to **. All in all, internal incentives always seem to have limited stimulation for A-shares, and external tensions are likely to influence the trend of A-shares. In order to make the A** market have a better development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai-Shenzhen-North Stock Exchange are also trying to optimize the capital market. First, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has strengthened its supervision and control over the market, severely cracked down on violations of laws and regulations, and strengthened the protection of investorsSecond, Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency that he would solidly promote the implementation of a new round of three-year action plan to improve the quality of listed companies and highlight the construction of corporate governance with Chinese characteristicsThird, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have launched policies to reduce or exempt relevant fees, promote high-level opening up, and actively promote the optimization of corporate shareholder structure and rich financing channels. It is not difficult to find that there are many of the above measures, but for shareholders, these are not "big things", but the real "big thing" is that the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below 3,000 points. No matter how many companies land on the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index is still below 3,000 points as it was 15 years ago, and the Shenzhen Component Index is still below 10,000 points like 15 years ago. Therefore, the problem faced by the A** market is not to let how many companies IPO go public, not to help how many companies refinance, but to let the market regain investment confidence, to let shareholders "can participate, dare to participate, want to participate", and let investors "afford, hold, and hold for a long time". The author believes that the next step in the reform of China's ** market needs to work "serving the people", that is, serving shareholders with more precise measures. For example, in terms of encouraging shareholders to hold high-quality listed companies for a long time, they can consider reducing various taxes and income taxes required in stages according to the length of their holding time, so as to reduce the cost of long-term shareholding, so as to encourage value investment;At the same time, it will increase the handling fees and profits required for ultra-high and high-frequency transactions, increase the cost of fast in and out, and reduce the volatility of excessive trading on the market in the short term. Before the real substantial change in A-shares, the investment logic of A-shares in the later stage is not expected to change much, and investors can pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following three major sectors. The first is the economic recovery enterprise sector. With the recovery of the economy, some important industries and companies may perform well, such as the financial industry, manufacturing, electronic information industry, etc., which the state has always attached importance to, these companies are mainly based on **, blue chips, and excellent performance, and the short-term increase may not be too large, but ** will usually be more durable and stable, and the annual dividend is also more optimistic. The second is the technological innovation industry sector. In many cases, the hot spots in A-shares are not guided by technological breakthroughs, but rely on imaginative stories. Although technological innovation is an important factor to promote the development of science and technology, this is not the inevitable to promote the related industries, plates, and concepts. Such enterprises are mainly Internet companies, and there may be a large wave of "irrationality**" when hot spots break outThe third is the consumption upgrading industrial sector. With the transformation of China's economic structure and the acceleration of the trend of consumption upgrading, industries and enterprises related to consumption upgrading may have better investment opportunities, such as high-quality enterprises in tourism, catering, education, medical care and other fields may benefit from the promotion of consumption upgrading. However, the specific situation needs to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis, after all, anything will happen in the a**field, and you need to be vigilant at all times. In addition, judging from the trend of the A-share cycle, the probability of bullishness in 2024 may further increase, and if there is a new round of bull market in the market, the market will retaliate ** or "trench" inhumanely. If you blindly follow the trend when investing, you may be in the fantasy of "it is difficult to buy a cow and turn back"**. 
This article was first published in Financial Investment News
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